Show I ff t i 1 BUSINESS and the STOCK MARKET by BABSON'S REPORTS Copyright 1972 LABOR OUTLOOK FOR 1972 1912 Despite the fact that the new year opened with continuing trouble on the docks and recurrent friction between labor la la- bor and the Pay Board 1972 1972 will see far fewer tense situations than were noted in inthe inthe inthe the past two years For on one one thing only about are covered by pacts scheduled for reopening this year compared with approximately in both 1970 and 1971 Even more signi sign cant is the of setting pattern-setting industries involved and surely none on the level of the steel giants that met unions at the bargaining table in 1971 There will as usual be expiration or reopening of agreements in a fair number number num num- ber of fields including machinery communications communications com com- retail outlets clothing manufacturing manufacturing manufacturing man man- chemicals and building trades B But t for the most part settlements settlements settle settle- ments should be made without serious dislocation of management-labor management relations relations rela rela- or critical ups flare-ups over conces conces- Perhaps th the touchiest conditions exist in the building industry where outsized out out- outsized sized benefits may be negotiated bringing bring ing the Pay Board Doard into open fr fray y with union forces If the public good is threatened threatened threat threat- ened by a walkout walkout walkout-as as in the case of the longshoremen longshoremen Congress Congress will not hesitate to pass a shot one-shot restrictive law lawas as it has in the past even though this is an election year Phase Two Problems There have been differences among the Pay Boards Board's three factions since the initiation of Phase 2 with finding fault-finding over decisions and disagreements over the fairness of pay versus price rulings This y year ar however tensions should be somewhat reduced because of more relaxed relaxed relaxed re re- re- re standards The Board has adopted rules which permit raises to be granted if they fell feU due during the wage-price- wage rent freeze period although there is Is' Is still stilla a general guideline of 55 percent Here again however there is considerable elasticity and some wage hikes in both year multi contracts and newly signed agreements are being allowed to surpass this yardstick limitation Ita lion under special circumstances There are still enough uncertainties and enough confusion to keep both employers and workers restless restless rest rest- less while Phase 2 is still operating Labor authorities are basically of the opinion that controls are illegal because they change terms included in an already accepted pact More economists politicians politicians Olit and businessmen also have an uneasy feeling about the e effectiveness of wage price curbs particularly in peacetime peace peace- time President Nixon himself himself despite despite brave claims that price increases can be reduced to 2 percent 3 percent a year within a reasonable length of time time has has never really had confidence in such price wage curbs He lie has clearly recognized recognized their failure in the past and he has strongly hinted that he intends to terminate Phase 2 before the year is out Since he generally goes through with his promises promises and and It Is Ls an election year- year controls could easily be over and done with long before the deadline of April 1973 recently established by Congress New Labor Laws It Is the tho opinion of the Research Department Department De De- De of Babson's Reports that Congress Congress Con Con- gress will not enact any new labor anti legislation this year except except except-as as we wo have noted shot one shot one measures if they are really needed to protect the public The solons colons simply are not of a mind to antagonize organized labor I in an election year by passing any law that cony conceivably con be thought of as antiunion union If there is such action it will not be taken until things are safe politically lly again in 1973 There will be an increasing trend to toward toward to to- ward term shorter labor agreements in silted upon by unions in the hope of getting bigger raises after controls are eliminated Over recent years the pattern pat tern has been year three pacts with front front- loading of the largest raise in the first year smaller increases in ill the tho second |