Show B A B sol N I 1 b STAIT MENt to lo TUE THE tin W nab BABSON DISCUSSES till coppen SITUATION CAPR TOWN SOUTH ay air RICA IUCA let me that fit fit discuss the topper copper industry of ali africa 11 ca which la is now its most stable activity the world copper industry Is currently in the doldrums do thia tact fact plus th tha red metals economic importance to the united states impels me to make a study of the situation u a con here are tho the highlights production picture the U S has long been the world s leading copper pro ducer although its percentage of the world total has declined in recent years the production pattern however has been quite irregular output tir topped p 1 e d tons for the first f s t time ime t in 1929 the depres slon low of tons was set in 1933 A record high of 2 1117 tons was turned out in 1936 last years total was waa 1081 tons world smelter production over a long period has tended fairly steadily upward and at a rapid pace in recent years from 3 tons in 1050 1950 to tons in 1956 at af rica is the free worlds second largest producer with the bulk of output concentrated in rhodesia and belgium congo I 1 have great futh faith in the african producers africa is a vast storehouse of raw materials that will be invaluable in the economic war we are engaged in with russia chile ranks third in copper production canada fourth coppers copper shifting ng supply demand ratio for many years the united states was more than self sufficient in copper world war il II changed that situation Z zooming consumption which hit a high of 1 l tons in 1941 necessitated heavy im ports to fill the deficit arising from wartime demand our US U S copper needs have held at high levels in most of the postwar years reflecting pent up ul consumer demand for goods of all kinds outbreak of the korean war in june 1950 and a high level of industrial activity the red metal was waa in stringent supply practically from the beginning of world won wan 11 until early 1080 1006 since then US U S supplies from domestic african and other for eign sources have once exceeded eded requirements quire ments the current copper surplus reflects elects the recent rapid expansion in world production of the metal and the decline in business and industrial acy ity particularly in the united states I 1 see little at the moment pointing to a major recovery in U S copper demand unless a naval war develops with china over the formosa situation I 1 am bullish however about the longer term terin prospects world industrialization bation seems destined to expand ot at an accelerating pace in tile years ahead copper needs abroad will follow suit As I 1 look into the future I 1 am nore concerned about too copper than too much much more could be mined hero iera in Al africa alfrica trica the th following three coppers are ar list lilt ed cd on tile alio now ew york finkk Ex exchange chAinge american metal climax rhodesian selection trust r r to boan antelope for 0 gnarly a r I 1 y profit however I 1 now briefer our own phelps dodge A olance at prices copper ilka like many worm world commodities la Is extremely sen price wise A depres sion elon low of be a pound for electrolytic coper lop er at new york tork was mae m made ae in 1033 ln february 1050 the metal lilt hit a 00 year bighom high 0 alc a pound the average yearly price in 1984 1954 WM was 29 in 1085 1955 in 1950 41 and in 1087 1057 20 29 DOC tle the recent V US S 1 price of 01 would seem to io dis dig count the bearish factors especially ally since the value baue of the dollar has haa been more than halved since alace 1130 10 JO although I 1 do not expect copper prices to go soaring soon 14 I 1 1 look for them to strength m n further as the sup ply demand imbalance undergoes additional correction this may take a little more time the recent eppi 9 of the U S import duty will act as a bulwark and a resumption of government stockpiling ca cannot n be entirely ruled out 0 of f ove one thing I 1 am certain over the next decade or so copper prices will be considerably higher than they are today and africa will be a gainer threats of war should help I 1 all copper stocks but bul the ar rican mines would be handicapped by the costs coats of long ano an dainge dangerous rous freight transport gold uranium and dla dia monds can be swiftly transported by airplane Igne copper cannot be and this is one reason why I 1 prefer now to invest in companies which secure their raw materials on t the he american continent |