Show Editor's outlook for 1979 What's ahead in may cost the motorist five to seven cents more a interest in the video tape microwave ranges and elec games should help boost consumer electronics sales almost 10 car packaging and insulation should result in an eight percent rise in plastics higher prices and labor peace appear likely in the coal Aerospace and precision instruments should be the main areas of investment within the metalworking value from the chemical process industries will increase about nine percent to some These are the forecasts made by six McGraw-Hill Petroleum and Here is what they look PETROLEUM Americans may be paying five to seven cents more a gallon for gasoline at the pump in according to Petroleum The 1 Price which the Carter Administration has already announced it will propose in is expected to raise prices two to four The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries' decision to increase its prices percent by the I end of next year will account for a three cent additional I j Two Petroleum i may stand in the way cf The first is opposition to further price j because inflation is already running 1 The second is the threat by some I marketers to sue the Department of j Energy on environmental A gasoline price increase is only one j of the issues that will bear watching In j the oil marketing the McGraw-Hill publication Tiki others by the Environmental Protection Agency to regulate the price differential between leaded and unleaded The Higher cost of unleaded gasoline encourages motorists to switch to leaded gasoline and in doing so destroys catalytic converters oil cars and pollutes the en-i already tight supply of unleaded gasoline to grow still tighter as the year wears renewed effort to restrict imports 1 I of petroleum products is expected in A similar move died in Congress j this i sell j One can look for other oil companies to I follow Shell and Mobil in in- similar ELECTRONICS Signs point to most sectors of the electronics industry plowing through a says Coming off a good year in the computer industry should have enough momentum to make another good showing in 1979 up nine percent to over While the consumer sector may be more susceptible to the eddies of the anticipated gains in video tape microwave ranges and electronic plus a recovery in audio should enable the sumer market to grow by almost 10 percent in As for federal electronics annual increases of under 10 percent are During calendar year this should mean around with the Defense Department accounting for the lion's The threat of a grab for more of the U.S. market has been says the McGraw-Hill although this is still a major for PLASTICS Plastics penetration in such markets as building car packaging and insulation should increase during reports The McGraw-Hill publication sees plastics consumption rising about eight percent overall despite forecasts of a recession next Seen as having bright potential is a commercial This flexible package reportedly will keep food for as long as the conventional at a j action of both the cost and the required storage Looking finds 1978 proved the banner year forecast 12 months While official statistics won't be out until the end of first quarter they are expected to show increases of about 10 percent in all major segments of the COAL Peace on the labor plans for new equipment announced by coal-carrying railway and a milder winter predicted for the eastern half of the nation are factors that should help make 1979 a better year than 1978 for the coal according to Coal output will be anywhere from to million up from approximately million tons in The National Coal Association pegs 1979 output at million the Bureau of Mines expects million Electric utilities are expected to consume million tons of this coal in The and Industrial Fuel Act of 1978 of five bills nuking up the Energy will empower the Department of Energy to force utilities and industry to burn coal in new plants instead of oil or natural The Administration expects that the also Ic as the coal conversion will save between and barrels of oil a day by the equivalent in consumption of to tons of coal a Coal prices are mostly because of the pass-along costs of government regulations and the rising price of rail Looking back on McGraw-Hill publication cites two factors behind the less-than-vigorous coal failure of big demand for steam coal to largely because of heavy stockpiling in anticipation of the long contract strike beginning in December followed by the slower-than-expected rebuilding of those stockpiles by the electric utilities after the strike and a fall-off in the purchases of metallurgical coal by a not-very-busy steel During the last quarter of the coal production surged well over 15 million tons per week several times breaking through the 16 million ton-per-week level to set a record METALWORKING Though expected to show less growth than in the metalworking industries group is still a bright spot in the nation's economic finds Looking to next the McGraw-Hill publication sees capital spending by the group up by 13 percent over If prices of capital equipment increase by about eight that would represent a real increase of five percent well below the real eight percent increase of but above Principal areas of investment are expected to be the aerospace industry and producers of precision CHEMICAL PROCESS INDUSTRIES Value of output from the chemical process industries that collection of companies that makes significant use of chemical processes and chemical unit operations to generate added value should rise about nine percent to some billion in according to In terms of physical the increase will be about six the price rise about four while capital spending is expected to climb to about billion percent above The chemical and allied products industry or is the largest slice of the chemical process While the industry is sharing in the gradual slowdown of the economy as a it will continue to outpace the overall economy in output as it has for many Capital spending is not expected to grow much faster than inflation and will stay flat in real terms for the next two to three Over-capacity in a number of key product areas is cited as the Key issues facing the chemical in government public energy and feedstock chemical activity by oil product foreign too little spending on research and not enough |