Salt Lake Telegram | 1921-09-04 | Page 39 | "The Industrial Storm is Past"

E INDUSTRIA STORM IS PAST Halbert P. P Gillette International Authority on Business Conditions Says Normalcy Has Arrived Tho The following article has been written especially for The Telegram by Halbert P. P Gillette president and editor of Engineering and nd Contracting and an economist whose scientific ic analyses of business conditions have won him an international reputation reputation- The Editor By HALBERT P. P GILLETTE CHICAGO Sept The 3 3 The industrial storm is past 4 Reliable business barometers are registering fairweather fair fairweather fairweather weather They show we have entered a period of stability that will lead us to normal peace and prosperity S The beginning g 5 I S t 5 S V g-V 7 h z h tI o of f In 1921 J. J 1 b brought h t t the Ie ih 5 0 i i i 5 of the unsettled end I I IU business b U SIn e s s period brought on by war var no inflation t ion Every in- in in 70 from that w that m time on pointed to toa 5 a return to normale nor nor- z a male 24 These are arc the tie IJO business barometers that bring us the Ila glad tidings zi in Ita I 1 The wholesale commodity p price r i ice C e m I n- n list lis t. t 2 The factory I MO O I. I 0 I At I employment I oj ent i index n d. d ex U i i o 3 Tons Pons or cars Jr m 10 of freight load loaded cd 5 monthly ao r Look at the accompanying accompanying ac- ac companying graph showing howing the fluctuation of the wholesale price index You'll You 11 see seea a i gradual month to month decline in the movement of average wholesale prices May 1920 represents the highest price level lc in our national history Then it begins to drop slowly until September 1920 is reached Then it begins to drop precipitately and continues continues con con- downward until January of this year ear when its movement gain again becomes gradual You can ean readily see that from that time on wholesale prices have nave been growing more stable more dependable That means that business frightened indoors by the earlier precipitate drop can canlow canlow low now venture forth again Right now were we're at the turn of the tide in wholesale prices That hat means that retail prices and wages will continue to decline But wholesale prices will stay up Now let us turn to our second barometer barometer employment employment figures The lie graph is based on figures supplied by the New York state 1520 I O 1 ti ti i 1 Si h S t i 0 lID 0 Ito 00 5 F. F V Y H Y I. I e 69 I industrial triai commission since national figures cannot be got But these figures are based on and should be significant The number of in 1914 is taken as a standard and called per cent The figu figures es given in this graph arc are based on that standard You'll see that the greatest number of men we wei wel A employed in I March Mai-ch 1920 Then like the price index the line begins to drop slowly at first but gaining momentum when October 1920 is reached f The lowest grade is reached in January 1921 Then just as with wholesale prices you see a tendency ten ency toward stabilization I We Ye come to Jl June ne of this year with very ery little fluctuation Everything points to normal industrial conditions Now let us consider our third trade barometer freight barometer freight car loadings The number of revenue freight cars loaded in the f first st half of 1921 is about 10 per cent less than in the same period of 1920 but corr corresponds roughly with the number loaded in the same period of 1919 So every everyone one of our indicators shows us that normalcy not only is on the way but actually has arrived BUSINESS IMPROVEMENT STARTING HE National Bank of Commerce of New York in the current T THE issue of its Commercial Monthly says The United States is practically through with the tho period of violent business dis disturbances disturbances disturbances which began in May 1920 We Ve will from time to time have visible evidences of the distressing conditions through which the country has been passing but these occurrences should be regarded not as indices to forward conditions but as relating to past It seems a safe conclusion that business improvement is already starting and that this will be generally realized in the course of a few weeks