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Show $ Russia Ready? V In 5 Years Soviet Industry Will Top U. S.War II Peak By Richard WUsoa WASHINGTON, D. C, Aug. S A special study of ths Russian economy by Soviet expert Ella-worth Ella-worth Raymond pictures It ss a strong competitor of the United States today in ability to make the instruments of war. Raymond's conclusions are these: "Today Stalin could almost match our World War H armament arma-ment production should ths cold wsr turn hot. "At the sams fast rats of Soviet So-viet Industrial expansion, by 1855, after the next five-year plan, Ruai sis could outproduce America's wartime asms output, unless ths United States tightened Its own belt much more then in ths second world war. Ths longer Stalin avoids war the closer his industry will match U. S. assembly lines." (Second of a Seriee) (These strengths, however, are offset by certain basic weaknesses which will be outlined In a later article.) Raymond made his survey for Look magazine. He is former chief of the USSR economic section of U. S. military intelligence (1844-46); (1844-46); research analyst in the American Amer-ican embsssy in Moscow (1838-43), and hs has just completed a nine- I months' study of ths Soviet economy econ-omy at the Hoover library at Stanford Stan-ford university. He Is presently assistant as-sistant professor of economics at New Tork university. Raymond's findings are controversial. contro-versial. They will undoubtedly be questioned by experts who consider con-sider themselves as well Informed as he. The significant factor Is that the U. 8. government has deliberately deliber-ately rejected the conclusions which Raymond reaches la favor of the more palatable edea that we can outproduce Russia with on hand tied behind the back. Rapid Stride Raymond concludes thst the USSR is producing twice as much steel and other basic products prod-ucts of heavy industry as lsts In World War Hi Other comparisons msde by Rsymond are startling and foreboding. fore-boding. If he Is correct. It can be wondered now why the joint chiefs of staff and defenss Secretary Johnson thought they had so much Urns to prepare the United States. According to Raymond's figures, the potential production of tanks In ths U S S R today Is 60.000 annually. an-nually. This figure will grow to 80,000 by 1055, he estimsted. Thst compares to the "production miracle" mir-acle" of the United States In producing pro-ducing 86,000 tanks tn the peak year of World War IL Alr Potential High Russia's power to produce airplanes air-planes Is today at a level of 80,000 which will rise to 120.000 by 1855. according to Raymond's estlmatea U. S. "miracle" production at the peak of World War II was 86,000. The Soviet ability to produce artillery justifies the use of the word colossal. It can produce now 240,000 artillery pieces annually, compared to the 120.000 It produced pro-duced at the peak of the war, and by 1855, according to Raymond, the Soviet Union will be able to turn out 360,000 artillery pieces. This compares to U. 8. World War II peak production of 125,000. Raymond estimates thst by 1855 Russia could produce 52 percent of America's World War II steel production; 105 percent of our tank production; 126 percent of our airplane air-plane production; 288 percent of our artillery production; 162 per-, per-, Bee Page t. Column 1 In 5 Years, Soviet Output WillTop U. S. War Peak figuru released by th Soviet Union, and evaluated them on tn basis of his own firsthand Information Infor-mation and knowledge. Ha studied the extensive Slavic literature on Russian production. He had available avail-able the knowledge and opinion of American and English experts, a well aa those from other countries. Thousand of scholars in the universities and - institute - in America are studying th Soviet Union. Th colossal growth of Russia's Rus-sia's war potential ha been known to every government in the west. .- Oapselto Treads Yet. In th face of thta, deliberate deliber-ate decision were made by th U. S. government not ,oniy to cut defense preparation, but -to cut them regressively year after year. At the same time the Soviet Union was known to be increasing Its war-making power progressively not on a one or two-year basis, but on a basis by five-year states definitely def-initely planned through th Tear WO. ' A th prospect of worldwide Soviet a (egression becomes mora real, the logic by which the United Statea reduced it strength deliberately delib-erately while knowing th Soviet Union waa Increasing In strength deliberately Is one of th baffling mysteries of American postwar policy. . . n. . CaatMiKd from Page One 'cent of our machine gun production; produc-tion; 234 percent of oihvwnall arms production; 111 percent orsjur production pro-duction of bullet. Different Story ; But these are outdated weapons, "said the experts a few week ago. Th United State will pro-. pro-. due guided missiles, atomic sr-tlllery, sr-tlllery, recoilless rifle, proximity fuses. W will annihilate th Rua-. Rua-. ', aian mass with our new weapons. -This dream has faded. In th first .' place, these weapon are not la reduction on the required scale; i the second place, Russian weap-;ons weap-;ons In many respects are still superior su-perior to those of the United '. State though not so finished and polished in appearance. These les-' les-' con have been learned in Korea. t Furthermore, the Ruaaian pro-- pro-- ductlve capacity, sav for certain definite limitations in th electronic elec-tronic field, can be turned te pro- " ductlon of th new weapon Just a easily as U. S. productive capacity. capac-ity. If Soviet "conventional" weapons weap-ons are superior In many fields to American weapons why would they not have new "wonder weapons" equal to the United States? Just Delivery Boy Why sre the figure on Russian Rus-sian production' so vital to th safety of the United States In th years just ahead ? Raymond says: "In the final showdown, th fighting fight-ing force are no mora than skilled delivery boys, delivering packages of death. Russia now has the world' largest air, tank and submarine sub-marine fleets, but these win not win a long war, unless Soviet heavy Industry can back them up. The production task will be gigantic gigan-tic In peacetime, an army loses three percent of Its tanks per year In accidents and plain wear and tear. "When war comes. 100 percent of th t milk a are lost sach year, and huge factoriea must toll night and day' to replace them. War losses of airplane and artillery are equally fantastic, not to mention men-tion th expenditures of million of sheila and bombs." How Hs Got It , It took no cloak and dagger work by Raymond to get th information in-formation on which ha based his conclusions. Hs got hi information informa-tion by studying th production y - v |
