Show I Weather We th r Forecasting astin f Called Impo Impossible ibl I Expert Give Up 1 Compute L By RODNEY RODNEY- DUTCHER W WASHINGTON NEA NA Th comfort that c can n bo h held l QU ji persons person with no overcoats L place to keep warm ia is th 4 i wo we are likely to experience miI winter Int r. r although It jt may ay be boo t th jC est and Md severest in tn history Considering how many th ti pro are who confidently ly predict I Io i- i hard winters or short y tho the completo complete l I ora e. e ot of j. j United Stat States weather bureau h seems astonishing There ai are oue in l lat at tho the bureau who have ha spent dec i ades trying to find a a. meth doC forecasting a a whole whole season season an and ana r all had to give It up p in bl r despair I- I r r Sometimes It mers mets are aro more likely than not t t tobo to f bo be followed by warm alm na natho u tho tio winters of ot tho the last ten ton year yea yea- r. r so 80 o hav have shown a a. tendency toward mildness j But it is utterly Impossible t ta th predict whether a a. season Reason will hi warmer or colder than tho the av tt ra-tt h sa says s 's Dr Br William J. J weather bureaus bureau's erudite and wo world famous Camous meteorologist No t seasons are aro alike aUke and th they y cf of differ widely been made mado In Ia Studies havo have ina a parts of or the world with the learning how to forecast ast tho thene 1 seasons season's weather eather but hardly jpy nY have been published because th they the nearly all showed r rep u Wo We must hit it right t f ut of ot the time in any lo long g range f forc- forc rt r. r casting system that Justifies lU Itself lf And there ther i Isn't nt an any any s such ch B STUDIED OLD RECORDS RECORDS' 1 Dr Oliver Lanard Fatsi t th the who lias been as clat elated d with t the e weather veather bur bureau u t f fc forty seyen years oric once Mudie weather records of ot Maryland fo for horo than years ears back hoping hoping- to o establish somo some kind of of- a a. perIod perlo perIodicity city b 1 Ho failed Called to do that but in Ints case aso you OU have a a. weakness for lh tha th law aw of ot averages heres here's what whit b hf found considering any season seasor cold when it averaged 2 degrees below average and md warm warm it Iti It averaged 2 i degrees es above In n cl seven eighty years the thee ee e ww wr j. j twenty three cold winters twenty twenty- two wo warm winters and two tort average winters winter Also twenty five I cold summers summer two twenty warm summers Slimmer and forty average um- um mers The two twenty t warm summers sum sum- sum sum- 1 mers remember that 1930 haij lu a warm summer were summer were followed by four our cold autumns lx au r au U and twelve vo warm autumn J They were followed by cold winters ten average crage winters and we seven even warm winters Eleven Oen summers were by t twelve bY by average autumns autumns- and only one ono bya bYJ warm autumn Ten were followed cold by-cold by average winters and and- twe twos b by warm winters V Both Dr Humphreys and Jr 1 j emphasize tho the point tto tt you ou cant can't use the law bw of avera eJ In n forecasting And the tha entire weather bureau personnel n O C that hat the tho winter of ot 31 1930 may b be either or oc vicious 4 a Jl |