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Show OPTIMISM RULES TflMjiRCLES Nothing in Week's News on Which to Base a Bear Campaign. STOCKS ADMITTEDLY HIGH ; LIKELY TO GO HIGHER Crop ..Prospects and Promised Improvements Boom Rail-roads Rail-roads and Steel. NEW TORK. Aug. 5. Notwlthstand-lng Notwlthstand-lng tho fact that the stock market Is abnormally high, efforts arc being mado to boost prices to still higher flguros. H The result may be a sudden drop, In H -which a good many people will lose H their cash. Tho cause of the present H Ktrong undertone o the market Is the H excellent outlook for the grain crops; a dleaster of any kind will cause a ro-versal ro-versal of the situation. Almost no one Is buying stocks on a belief thot the market will culminate In a dav or two. One class of buyers sella out within an hour or two, but the others are expecting that the proper H time to sell will not come before tho fl end of Auzust. and may come many months later. Two-thirds of the supply H of stocks Is coming from those who are H selling one stock In order to buy some other which for the time being looks j H more promising. I Quick Trading the .Rule. There seems to be practically no short selling. The buyer of some one stock frequently sells out. gets Into another, sells that out, gets Into a third, perhaps per-haps a fourth or fifth, sells them out nnd gets buck again Into the flrst stock, having made a profit in every one. Ax a rule, there would have been more profit had such a buyer clung to his first purchase. The temptation to trade qulcklv is a strong one, and. as it multiplies multi-plies commissions, "Wall street will never object to It. Too Highj but Going Higher. It Is true that there exists many capitalists, cap-italists, many professional operators of long experience, of wealth and good Judgment, who think the market too high, but they are all ready to concede con-cede with theSrcst that it Is nevertheless neverthe-less going higher. It has no doubt acquired ac-quired a momentum which cannot be checked without the Intervention of a catastrophe. . So far the market Is on balance professional. pro-fessional. It has Improved greatly, for two weeks ago probably 30 per cent of the dealings were professional. Possibly Possi-bly now the public is contributing 30 per cent of the dealings. If the crops should turn out all right, onn can easily nercelve that the public might contribute con-tribute over 50 per cent of the dealings, in which case there would be runaway prices far In excess of the heights reached In the spring of 1901. Practically the only danger is that to the spring wheat and tho corn crops. The black rust scare gave the market quite a little shock; it is now a question whether: the black rust will amount to anything serious. Reactions Are Expected. , While more or less profit-taking on the part of the professional element Is expected, the up-town cliques of speculators spec-ulators look for substantial adi'ances ' Trom this level. They seem to be confident con-fident that the large holders of securities securi-ties will not sell them at present prices. Members of the board who have been on the floor of the exchange recently, and close observers of the tape, say that all the standard stocks are extremely scarce. Reactions from time to time are expected, but the prevailing opinion is that the market will continue to advance ad-vance for some time to come. While there has been a feeling that several of the railroad issues are selling' high enough, and are so high that they are practically out of the speculative list, still the transactions recently In these securities would seem, to Indicate that they are wanted by interests who are familiar with the properties which the securities represent. Euying for Developments. It Is believed that this class of stock "Is. being bought not for the rate of Interest In-terest which it yields on present prices, but for developments nnd extra distributions distri-butions which will make It appear still more valuable than at the present time. There Is still a strong tendency to buy the low-priqed "Issues both for speculation specula-tion and Investment. One shrewd observer of the market, who has made a great deal of money In buying stocks that no one else seems to Want, and waiting, five or ten years in some Instances, for them to advance, seems to have changed his policy somewhat, some-what, for he now recommends for Investment In-vestment the preferred stocks of Industrial Indus-trial companies which have paid their dividends rcgnlarly for some time and Whose business is in excellent condition. H Steel on Upgrade. H The Idea Is very generally expressed H that the United States Steel stocks arc H going very much higher. Several months H ngcrt when the common was selling at H 33, a man familiar with the steel trade H made a wager that the stock would H sell at 50 during the present year. Not H long ago he about decided that he H would lose hts bet. Men who are nlto- H gethcr familiar with the, conditions In H the Iron and steel trade have told him H within the last few days that they be- H Hove the stock will sell at 50 before H January 1 next. H Hariiman Rumor "Won't Down. H The rumor will not down that the H Illinois Central and the Union Pacific H arc to make permanent, by an exchange H of securities, the community of Interest H which has existed since E.J IT. Harrl- H man. for years powerful In 'the Illinois H Central, became the head of tho Union H Pacific. The rumor in official circles H has been declared absurd, but the popu- H lar temper will accept nothing in the H way of denial unless much more spe- H ciflc. The rumor Is fed naturally by H the existence in the Union Pacific treas- H ury of 2100.000,000 preferred stock, uu- Hj thorlzed for a purpose which has never H been stated, The capital of the Illinois. H ; Central is $95,000,000. The rumor is H tj that two shares of Union Pacific .pre- H '! ! ferred will be offered for one of Illinois 1 Central. H ,7 Earmarks of Speculation. H Brokers who have watched the recent H : t actions of the Vanderbilt stocks, said H 1 ; that they presented all the 'outward ln- H dicatlons of a clever plan to' work up a H j speculation In them. Tho work was begun with Nickel Plate, which was bid up sharply. They pointed out that there could be no better way of persuading per-suading the room to buy New York Central than by first buying the shares of a subsidiary company and giving tho Impression that a readjustment of corporate cor-porate or traffic relations among the several branches of the system was about to take place. The report current is that the Nickel Plate Is to receive traffic frorn a connecting con-necting road in which the Vanderbilt interests have purchased a big interest, but which heretofore has delivered Its traffic to the Wabash and the Grand Trunk. The recent buying of Nickel Plato is attributed to a house which frequently fre-quently acts for capitalists nflllintcd with the Vandcrbilts. Roads Plan Improvements. The Vanderbilt roads are to spend 560,000.000 and the Pennsylvania ?100.-000,000 ?100.-000,000 on Improvements during the current cur-rent fiscal year. Erie has begun the expenditure of $8,000,000 on terminals, the Western Pacific Is laying out $50.-000.000 $50.-000.000 on the completion of thnt road; the Southern Pacific Is making an outlay out-lay of $25,000,000, nnd several other roads are paying out heavy sums for improvements. President Elliott of the Northern Pacific says that cSntrncts have been let for building about sixty miles of the lino which tho Harrlman and Northern Pacific Interests agreed last spring to build jointly in the Clearwater Clear-water district. There are Indications of a resumption of operations by the various pools which are plainly endeavoring to make an August campaign. Developments Mostly Favorable. The developments for the week were generally of a favorable naturo and calculated to lend assistance to the plans of the manipulating element. Abroad, sentiment showed marked Improvement, Im-provement, consequent upon better prospects for an early peace, although this Improvement did not rellect Itself In any strong desire for American stocks. London buying only moderately. Earnings reported by the various groups of railroads were Invariably of a satisfactory satis-factory character, suggestive of a good business situation. The yellow fever scare and the discussion of tnrlff revision re-vision possibilities at the extra session of Congress next fall did not act to check the advance, although nn opening open-ing up of the tariff might conceivably cause trouble later on In the stock market. mar-ket. Business Reflects Confidence. Railroad officials express optimism on the future of their properties, because of the crop situation, and business generally gen-erally reflects t ho same confidence. In the iron nnd steel trade, the barometer of Industry, while the recent buying spurt in pig iron has ben succeeded by quieter conditions, the general situation is extremely promising. So far. monetary mone-tary conditions continue remarkably easy. Opinions as to tho course of money during the next-few months differ, dif-fer, though In financial circles generally nothing approaching stringency Is expected. ex-pected. Peace Means More Loans. An early conclusion of peace would Inevitably "mean the floating of more loans by Japan and Russia, drawing down heavily the accumulated surplus of the Continent. In somo quarters It Is suggested that American securities abroad would be sold and the proceeds Invested in the more profitable loans of the Governments mentioned. There was absolutely nothing In the week's news upon which a' bear campaign cam-paign could be based. Efforts are being made to draw cash to the financial centers cen-ters '.n preparation for the heavy demands de-mands that will materialize thirty days hence for money to move the crops. |