| Show NATIONAL NA AFFAIRS Reviewed by CARTER FIELD Laymen offset economists economists' gloom with wilh war tew ar order pros prospects peers peers' importance c of o j f em embargo cill- cill bargo votes rotes in presidential campaign Washington Jr a hears that German army array officers tic tic up WASHINGTON Most Most of the th New Deal economists have not been bern op optimistic op- op optimistic about business and employ ment prospects for the th coming spring They have heavily discount discount- discounted ed Nt prosperity from war orders in- in insisting In Insisting that these will not be b so great as expected Dut But the chief thing worrying them is inventories s. s They insist that American producers have piled up tremendous stocks In antic antic- anticipation anticipation of popular demand that this demand has not Increased in proportion and that hence production production tion must ease oil oft They are lire not predicting anything remotely resembling resembling bling a crash just on an increase in unemployment These Th se arguments ore lire pretty near near- nearly nearly ly the th whole case of those left lett wing wing- len hers who have been bren screaming late late- lately lately ly y for a new spending orgy by the th federal government nt It is only fair to say at this point that this desire d for federal spending so essential in inthe Inthe inthe the eyes of most left Ifft wingers is neither the chicken nor the egg In Inthis Inthis Inthis this case ense Some of the govern government ment economists making tills this pre prediction diction of spring conditions are arc per personally not In sympathy with spend spending ing at all They are holdovers holdovers- not appointees given places at nt the suggestion of the Frankfurter Frankfurter Frankfurter-Cor- Cor coran-Cohen coran group But Dut to the layman so Ignorant of statistics that he might have dif dlf difficulty understanding one of the elaborate charts so dear to the econ coon economists there Is much skepticism about these se gloomy prophecies The war orders are arc very tangible They are tremendous They promise to grow bigger Far from slowing them down sinking of ships carry carry- carrying ing the supplies to Britain and France will increase the demand for every cargo sunk must be re reo replaced re- re replaced placed For example if a situation should arise under which every other cargo exported to Europe were destroyed and continuation of this condition clearly faced the British and French they would still be com com- compelled compelled to keep on buying and to buy j I twice as much as though the teas seas were ere clear dearl They have to defend themselves and eventually to win the war as liS they y see it arid and though neither the British nor the French will like wasting money money is not and cannot be the prime essen essen- essential essential for a long lung time to come May lIIa Fly Planes P an to Europe To A void Avoid V U Boat Menace M marc Already there Is talk about flying firing the planes to Europe from Europe from New Newfoundland I to circumvent I to the sub submarine marine menace But Dut it is obvious that the more serious the submarine menace becomes and the more seri sent serious ous the menace of German bomb bomb- bombing bombing ing planes plants becomes the more air airplanes planes Britain and France will wilt need both both to fight Nazi planes plants and to split Nazi subs Starting from that and looking at atthe atthe atthe the whole situation with a cold eco eco- economic economic eye it Is obvious that Amer Amen American lean Iran factories producing planes mu mu- munitions munitions and other supplies for the allies are going to be kept pretty busy It is just as lIS obvious that the people working in those plants will have money to spend and hence will buy things calculated to keep other lines of production occupied The very argument so much used by b left wingers as to the advantage I of federal spending spending spending-In in that the dol dol- dollars dollars i lars spent keep right on circulating I applies with equal force to this war spending Besides there will be heavy y fed fed- federal federal eral spending even though no great new ne wr A fund or anything thing of the kind Is voted by congress Embargo Votes lots Jot May Figure F In Presidential Campaign n The Republicans are headed J far r a alot alot alot lot of grief grid in the presidential cam cam- campaign campaign so soon to open if It the old I maxim of history that one must judge the future by the past holds good The Th point is that an over overwhelming whelming majority of the Republicans cans in the Uie house and senate voted against lifting the arms embargo while the Democrats also In over over- overwhelming overwhelming whelming majority voted to lift lilt it The number of Republicans In the house voting against accepting the conference report report actually actually the final vote ote on the embargo was embargo was Ml To fo these must be added four Republican lican members not voting but paired against It which brings the total to Only 10 Republican house members voted to approve e the con can conference ference Terence report with one more mak mak- making making ing 20 paired on that side Thus the ratio is 71 to 1 1 Whereas the Democrats in the house voted 22 for the conference report or for lifting the arms arms embargo and only 29 voted vote against it a ratio of about 7 to 1 i 1 It really amounts to this that the Democrats voted to follow their leader President Roosevelt while I the Republicans voted to follow their leaders le ders with almost an equal i j f proportion of each party part bolting l' l their leadership on the ballot Now all this might readily become unimportant if It certain things hap hap- But the chances seem srem at al least to 1 I that these things will not happen before the nominating convention conventions next June Let us us consider what these things could be First there might be peace prace before that time But nut the chances for peace seem leem mighty slim and growing thinner every passing day To illustrate Ie this some bets b yr were laid nl In ber that peace would come before November 1 I this year The odds were 10 to 1 against peace but nev nevertheless s there were takers of the thelong thelong thelong long shot How 1 o l Shrewd Political Ol hope Dope It Out The logic of those betting on peace pence was that having conquered Poland and obtained all the objectives over which the war started Hitler HIller would make a reasonable peace pence after and that France and Britain hopeless of ot liberating Poland roland would accept Hitler's JUlIer's offer The shrewdest political observers ers era here believe t that If the war is still going on next June and next November politicians running for office will benefit by having cast a n void calculated to help Britain and France and suffer by the reverse except pt in a n number of congressional al 01 districts so small as liS not to 10 have much national significance If It the United States Slates should meantime have gotten into the war It Is true the tile pro embargo side might be able to say sa I 1 told you so but that would not be very good political medicine for a country In the fresh fury of a war fever sound as It might be four years later Hear nr German Army Officers Plotted I Sovid Sol et Tit Up One of the reasons being given In well Informed diplomatic diploma tic circles here in Washington for tor the Soviet Nazi NaE pact is the utter distrust by Ly bythe Lythe bythe the high German army officers of ot Italy Not that they distrusted Mus Mussolini's Mussolini's Intentions What they lacked ed confidence In was the fighting lighting abil abilIty Ity of the Italian army and navy Further they regarded Italy as 81 be br being ing highly vulnerable to attack by Britain and France Prance Altogether they figured that as an ally Italy would be a liability rather than an asset According to these reports based on excellent authority the high Ger German man officers had been plotting for forthe forthe the tie up with wilh the tile Soviet for many years Some of the authorities place the tho conception of the notion in German army circles asfar as lIS fa far r back backas as 1923 W. W G. G G Krivitzky in his Ills ar articles artitles titles in the Saturday Evening Post has told his own conviction cOn that Stalin finally Anally became converted to the Idea immediately after litters Hitler's famous purge pur Up to that time he had doubted whether Hitler was sufficiently ruthless to stay in pow pow- power power er cr long enough to to be a real ally The two theories coming from such widely separated sources fit together very nicely Especially as the reports reports' about the objectives now accomplished of the high Ger German German man officers are arc that they did not convince littler Hitler tier of the soundness of their plans until just prior to the Ute out outbreak outbreak break of the war warThe warThe The process was v very try ery much like water wearing away awny rock ro said one ont of tills this writers writer's Informants till lilt Hitler ler did not accept the idea readily at all When it was finally put to him after litter a long process of letting k him hear this or that report that the Italian army would be of at no value and this and that discussion of how vulnerable Italy would be to British and French attacks littler Hitler almost had a n brainstorm What haU he hI shouted to the of officers fibers at this particular conference Tie Tle up Germany with the Commit ern Absurd But he had been bren set thinking about It and pretty soon it became obvious that no other course could be followed td What the British and French were thinking about I cannot Imag imag- Inc ine But Dut every well informed informed per person son in Berlin knew what was going on high h Army Arm Officers Officer Kept It I Pegging An ay at r Every Esery now and then according to I this version eulon some high army of officer fleer would be able to see gee littler Hitler I for some reason n or other Always something would be he said raid by the le army representative to hitter Hitler which would be calculated to make him see the Inevitability of the with the Soviet no matter what Its cost coit There was no need for similar work at Moscow Stalin had been con con- converted converted to the theory for several se t years ears An entirely new twist on the whole story has been bern brought back from Berlin by b well informed Americans with excellent connections since the outbreak of the war This theory theon not soundly substantiated but Inter Interesting esting is that littler Hitler did not Intend to Keep faith with Stalin when he finally finall agreed to give gi his high army arm officers their way as to the with the Soviet The essence of at this i iwas was that littler Hitler hoped to use the u th I Russian alliance as a II surefire sure stop- stop stopper stopper stopper I per to prevent Britain and France from going to war Then he hoped i ito to block Stalin when it caMe cane to de de- I I livening either In Poland around the Baltic or in the Balkans But destiny moved otherwise II Britain and France were allowed to I get too far out on the war limb I before they were apprized of the deal between Berlin and end Moscow So they started fighting So apparently apparently Stalin will get all he was prom prom- promised promised without much danger of a s double cross Bell tieD Syndicate Sink I |
