Show BUSINESS POLICY AND THE FUTURE in its monthly review of market and business conditions the national bank of commerce of new york deals thusly with the the declining stock market and other more fundamental indications lead to the conclusion that some contraction in the volume of business may be in the offing there is general agreement in this but even so it is beyond the ability either of practical men or of business soothsayers to foresee in advance of the event the exact time when recession will first definitely make itself felt its extent or its duration it may be clearly perceptible in a month or in a year it may be sharp and short and felt chiefly in a few industries or it may present itself as a slow general grinding readjustment and elimination of jazz from american business and american life circumstances quite beyond human control or power of prevision such as the weather during the crop season may well prove dominant in determining the course of business during the coming months under such conditions the problems of making forward plans always the most difficult with which the busi ness executive has to deal is rendered doubly hard for it is even more necessary than usual to avoid the error of excessive caution on the one hand or over boldness on the other the first consideration to be taken account of in the making of plans today is the certainly that a large volume of business will continue to be done regardless of the possibility of untoward developments actual variations between so called prosperity and slow business are much narrower than they are popularly supposed to be the best studies of this subject which have been made show that 15 per cent from normal is ally the extreme limit of the fluctuation in either direction there was a wider range than this during the depression of 1921 but the circumstances leading up to it were exceptional and are not likel likely y to be repeated in this generation the everyday needs for foi r foad shelter clothing and other necessities of life constitute the mainstay of business at all times and in a rich country such as this consumption is maintained at a high rate whether comparatively speaking business is good or bad no matter how unsatisfactory conditions outwardly might seem to be at some future time this enormous consumer demand must be met and steady employment of the major part of the capital and labor of the country is thereby assured A large volume of business 1 is being done and it will continue to be done |