Show EARTHQUAKE LORE LORE Are Arc Earthquakes to Be Expected at Certain Intervals Except as a matter matt r of ot curious inter interest interest interest est it I is hard to see sec what Is to be gained by b the Investigations of the federal department of commerce and labor into the suppositious horizontal displacement of ot the earths crust rust on m the the Pacific coast as the result of ot the theoan San oan an Francisco earthquake It I is not hot at all al likely Ikey says sa the Chi Chicago Chicago Chicago cago Chronicle that the departments researches will wi result in disclosing the entice cause of the recent disturbance it I is certain that no investigation no mat hint ter how thorough and minute will wi re result result sult suit in preventing future earthquakes In the end people who live hive le in an n earth enith earthquake earthquake quake belt bel can have hac no other comfort I than that which is to be derived from the doctrine of ot probabilities with lh the law of oC averages They The may ma thus argue hat judging jurging the future by b the vast past last a 1 earthquake la is IS to be expected expect d at it ceri certain tain tam intervals If U it fails fals to occur at the at time when It Is due the probability off of Its occurrence Increases In i progression until it I actually actual dois doca dOl oci cur Thus prudent people would be jus justified titled in shifting their quarters quarter from aj a region regon where an earthquake is over overdue due Just as they the would have reason reasonable reasonable able excuse for or remaining in such h a district during the period of pro haole I immunity It is undoubtedly this latter later consider consideration I atlon aton which Influences the people p who wIo whore are re rebuilding San Francisco They Thoy fig hg figure figure ure that according to precedent J probability fifty years rears should claps Iap before belore the next destructive I quake In that region There building upon that theory and they the are willing that the generation which follows shall take tak is isOn its own On precaution or get Into trouble by falling failing to do so That Is human nature Of course the doctrine of ot probabilities ties tes Is not an infallible guide Things that figure out perfectly in theory have havea I a disagreeable fashion of failing in practice and usually at the most Incon Inconvenient inconvenient neon Juncture Thus Thu it I is not impossible that instead I of being half hal a century distant he the next San Francisco upheaval may come lext I year earr or next month or next week I Professor the Japanese cal expert exper has devised a geometric l and algebraic formula by b which i en tho the direction time tm and duration of of an earthquake shock he undertakes to I forecast the approximate date of f the fhe next one with occasional exceptions Mark lark the pregnant reservation for or it i demolishes the entire entre theory so 50 far tar js as sj practical value is il concerned on erne If I al i Francisco Francsco for instance should bi br ti t tie jf j i victim of one Of f these occasional ex exceptions x within the next few fen years year I Ithe the people of ot that city dt would take ik I small comfort from Professor ProCessor f r assurance that the formula works in a majority of eases cases It I Is true tre however that the law f averages or the th maturity of the han hanels ces els or the scheme sch mp of ot probability as based upon precedent constitutes the h honl only foundation on which the deniz denizen Mi of an earthquake district can rest his bis hopes and enterprises ente In a great ma majority majority i of or cases he will wl come out ell all allright 1 right But when he encounters one of It Professor exceptions he must I realize that mathematical science stops short of ot some things and predicting the I future is 15 one of things As for the investigations of the de department de J of commerce and labor they hey are certain to be interesting and ond in iii instructive il They The will wi not keep away earthquakes however nor will wi they even eyen enlighten us greatly geat respecting phenomena which are from their y nature incapable of more morE than titan the most inconsiderable considerable I elucidation I |