Show PREDICTS BIG 1920 SHORTAGE w IN IN MOTOR CARS CAR Factory E Expert Cites Condi- Condi lions thons in Business World That Govern Demand Denland RECORD BREAKING ACTIVITIES AI PARENT ARENT Makers 1 to Experience Greatest Great- Great est Prosperity Since Introduction Introduction Intro Intro- n of Trucks 1 nv fly n. n RII WILCOX CO Director of and A c ing The Commerce Motor Cut Cati Co Detroit Mich The Tho year 1920 promises to be bo one ono of oC b record activity in motor manufacturing and If It proper care is used should yield large lars profits both bolh to the tho direct manufacturer and to those whose business is indirectly dependent de de- pendent upon them Tho financial barometer barometer ba- ba rometer points In such direction and andIn andIn andIn In In tho the sane same breath the warning is given that financial soundness should be ab absolutely the first st consideration In ln selecting the companies to do business business busi busl- ness neBS with The year ear In 1010 1919 has been pro emi a Do motor year ear In the business world orld Other lines such as building textile etc eta have shown activity lt which compares favorably fa with tho the immediate Immediate Immedi immedi- ate past PMt but in no other industry has i tho demand BO so decidedly surpassed all aU previous 1 records I On tho demand side the motor In Industry Industry Industry In- In for both passenger cars and trucks ru ks has three great heads First tho the new demand from those who aro not now owners second the replacement replacement replace replace- ment demand from those who aro are discarding dis dis- carding third export trade What has become of or the much much of talked subject tho the saturation point In tho the motor car r Industry With our population growing the the demand for the tho passenger car for tor business and pleasure o and tho the absolute necessity of at the tho motor truck to solve soho tho transportation transportation trans trans- problem no tto saturation point will be reached for tor man many years cars as tho the number Dumber of ot passenger car and truck r owners Increases each each year It Il Is pos- pos however for tho the ratio of oC ve- ve to population to become a n. stationary sta factor 1020 o D Demand Financial circles place the 1920 domand damand demand de do- da- da mand as follows tollo Passenger car rn minimum min n- n 18 maximum truck minimum 1000 maximum In considering these figures It must bo ho borne In mind that tho the auto- auto Industry has frequently surprised surprised sur sur- students of or tho the situation by tb the great extent of or its demand Such a surprise e is more likely to develop elop In Inthe Inthe Inthe the truck field now than In tho passenger pas pas- cr field for tor it is in a much earlier stage stas-o of or growth s and therefore most likely to assume sudden sion alon In fact tact it is predicted that I if business conditions should be bo favorable enough to approach the m maximum maximum max max- estimate of at the passenger c car demand tho the truck demand would probably be nearer than l the tho maximum figures I have havo already quoted quote It la Is also worth remembering that in times like lIko tho present production production production pro pro- schedules are aro easier decreased than Increased if expected demand should fall fail to materialize Tho The overproduction of or trucks on account account account ac ac- ac- ac count of tho the sudden ending of or the tho war allowed buyers buers in this field to partially partially partially par par- fill flU their demands demand It Is worth noting noUnG that in 1919 tho the majority of or truck dealers were cro unable to got prompt deliveries on trucks ordered by them and which were actually sold Bold It can n also aiM bo pointed out In this re- re that this shortage on tho the part of ot the tho American manufacturer came with only a n. slight demand on him for tor trucks for the tho export trade Tho The material material ma ma- had great Influences on truck manufacturers being unable to supply trucks s on all orders they had harl on hand but in many cases tho the manufacturer had llad not estimated that the tho demand for Cor trucks in U 1919 9 would exceed his out laid production sched sched- ules Looking at It no now I am sum aura that tho the truck manufacturers will not ho bo ablo to make prompt deliveries In 1920 0 There will bo be some somo manufacturers manufacturers Who ho can can up to readjusted schedules or fill unexpected d orders but It will tal take tako o shopping to find such sources of df o supply not now visible vis- vis ible 2200 i Exported 4 Tilo Tim Tho greatest number of ot trucks ex ex- exported exported ported in one ono calendar year rear left lert the United States In 1 1915 15 when were shipped out Tho The yearly earl figures havo o steadily fallen Allen off oft since that time What hat the tho 1 1920 0 demand will bo be depends s on tho European E buy buying InS InS' pow pow- er cr To take as a criterion tho the reports of those foreign bu buyers rs who have havo lately been In this country countr placing or orders or- or tiers ders and securing truck contracts It Jt Itis itis is m my opinion that 1920 will see sec some come real big Increases In tho the exportation figures of made American trucks All AlI of or this points to tho the vital c Will wm tho the truck buyer Lu-cr find the tho same samo con condition existing in 1 1920 0 In tho the truck field as s the passenger car buyer burer has found this year car when ho bo wanted delivery I think be ho will wilt There is going to bo no up let In the tho aggressiveness of both passenger car carand carand carand and truck manufacturers ma in production tion In so far as ns their abilities go so to secure the tho nece necessary materials material but It ItI I must bo be recognized that already production production pro pro- schedules for 1920 that were formulated last fall have havo been cut from 15 to 40 pcr per cent by nearly all the leading manufacturers In both branches of tho the industry Transportation tion b by truck is sudden suddenly recognized as tho the one ono solution to not anI only our present inadequate railroad system stem but as a great factor in the reduction of or the high cost of living Tho The result an unprecedented international demand for trucks In unheard of volume Thus unusual demand meets curtailed production production production pro pro- with tho the inevitable result A shortage of trucks that will be felt far tar keener than tho the shortage of or passenger passenger pas pas- cars this year ear Is The passenger car and truck business have come out of he war facing a n. hUI huge demand domand domand do- do mand and with tho the financial world using the industry as a business barometer ba ba- rometer Its optimism Is bound to carry the aggressive o dealer forward to success and make him a creditable merchant in his lils own field on BRONZE iron n BAR INGS Never forget that In cooling a abronze abronze abronze bronze bearing that leas has been running hot bot about the last thing to use Is water Tho The best method Is to watt walt for Cor forthe tho the bearing to cool in the tho ordinary course but if It this Is 19 impossible uso use oil to cool the part |