Show Probability of War in Europe THE study of this subject is best I begun by an inquiry into the state of affairs bearing on the balance of power as it is maintained between t the different countries of Europe What is is s meant by Balance of Power will be made clear by an examination of the pos position tion England holds in relation to the other nations of Europe and the action she as a na nation tion is prepared to take in case war breaks out between any of of- the continental powers England occupies an unique place due du to her insular position She maintains at home a very small standing army and depends for her strength on her overwhelming navy The defence of her colonies is entrusted entrusted entrusted en en- trusted to the native people off officered by Englishmen So we conclude that England England England Eng Eng- land must defend herself in the manner that will enable the best use of her strongest arm the navy Let us now consider whose interests are most likely to clash with those of England The answer is Russia and France Russia has been advancing towards India by way of Afghanistan for a number of years and this advance has not been the result of accident due to protection of her own frontiers but butis butis butis is the carrying out of a settled plan of aggression against the rich province of India Again England and Russia are areat areat at swords points in another quarter It has been the dream of all the Czars from Catharine down to possess Constantinople Constantinople Con Con- and more than once has Great Britain's interference prevented the consummation of those dreams of conquest As to France there has been a deep- deep seated enmity existing since the days of the Great Napoleon and in modern times the flame is periodically fanned by aggressions on the part of one or the theother theother theother other in territory that both desire but buton buton buton on which neither has claim Egypt has been a bone of contention for man many years and no now no in Siam England would interfere re if she were not afraid of Russia taking advantage of the opportunity of war to seize India Let us now see what are the relations existing between the other countries of Europe France and Germany of course 4 are enemies and France would declare war to-morrow to without a pretext if she felt sure of success Russia as a rule j has been an ally of France perhaps because both dislike England and Russia Russia Russia Rus Rus- sia and Germany we see now at loggerhead loggerheads loggerheads logger logger- heads head on the subject of the h tariff taI As j Russia has ever shown a disposition to encroach on the territory and rights of b t Austria the latter would naturally ally J herself with a power like Germany who J would find it to her advantage to assist r an enemy of Russia Italy and Austria have so many common interests that an attack on either would injure the other P indeed Northern Italy has always been more than half Austrian Turkey p fear of the through aggressions of Russia would seek any alliance that would render Constantinople safe and 1 a athe 13 the other countries of Europe need not be considered on account of their comparative comparative comparative com com- weakness We may thus divide Europe into two hostile camps Russia camps Russia and France Franc against Germany and Austria with Italy Turkey and England as allies of the latter countries Let us now examine into th the strength of the the different powers The leading military power of the world is undoubtedly undoubtedly undoubtedly edly Germany The grand total of her forces is now is-now now about men of whom are kept constantly ready for instant service while the balance are magnificently drilled militia When I say drilled I mean that they are put through a course of military discipline such as the wo world ld never saw before the idea being that in time of peace a man shall become so accustomed to obey the orders of his superiors rs that he will in inthe inthe inthe the presence of danger and death overcome overcome overcome over over- come the instinct of self-preservation self and rather face certain destruction than make up his mind individually to run away A short summary of a drill day will show you how this machine is per per- At 5 30 in the morning the company starts starts' for its drill ground in the suburbs six miles away in heavy marching order I might have stated i that a German soldier carries sixty-eight sixty pounds when fully equipped The drill ground is deep sand cut up in places by low ridges and copses of stone pine Having doubled about over or rather l' l through this s desert till about 10 a. a am a.m. m. m occasional rests rest the march t with only t home commences and the company l swings in at something over four miles r per hour singing as they go They get back to barracks about 11 1130 30 At about t l ii 2 30 the companies f fall a 11 in In f for or squa squad drill d d n 11 7 or musketry At 4 they change to gymnastics or twice a week to swinging drill which entails a couple of miles more down to the water At six they are dismissed for the day Do you wonder so many Germans try to escape military duty b The method of selection of the German German German Ger Ger- I man officers may be interesting PassI Passing Passing Passing Pass Pass- ing an examination gives a German no claim to a commission He must be an acceptable person to his brother officers and must first be accepted by his r colonel who owing to the territorial r method of organization is usually sufficiently sufficiently o acquainted with the county to ff which the regiment belongs to judge i whether the applicants applicant's social position is good enough He is then posted as asa asa a candidate and lives at the mess mess mess' but drills as a recruit At the end of a ati ti year if satisfactory at drill the officers of the regiment are assembled and called upon to decide whether they will have b him or not Objections if any must be stated in writing and if frivolous are reported to the Emperor who would deal severely with the objector Having Y been duly elected to his regiment he is put in charge of a section of a company but not till he has been three or four 0 re- re years an officer is he trusted to drill re re- No officer can marry until he satisfies his colonel that he has means to support a family in a manner befitting his rank The pay we would consider very small small small-a a first lieutenant receiving a year a captain about 1200 and anda a major about 1600 An officer wears his uniform and sword at all times in public and is expected to defend his uniform from insult A German officer a few years ago entered a cafe and finding finding finding find find- ing himself alone took off his sword and hung i it t up before sitting down Presently Presently Presently Pres Pres- a couple of demagogues persons defined by Mark Twain as vessels filled with beer or other liquors entered entered entered en en- and noticing the officer to be unarmed began to abuse the Emperor and army The officer warned them to desist but they only jeered at him He rose took down his sword and ran one of them through the body The Court of Honor acquitted him of all blame for having killed the man loan but dismissed him from the service for disobedience of orders in having removed his sword The overwhelming power of the German German German Ger Ger- man army lies in its extreme mobility The cavalry divisions are always ready to take the field at twelve hours' hours notice and the army corps nearest the frontier will be beable beable beable able to move off within forty-eight forty hours In six days the whole army equipped for forthe forthe forthe the field can be concentrated on either frontier Let us now look at the fortifications fortifications fortifications erected by France and Germany on their frontiers After the war of 1870 the French engineers found that with the exception of a very small strip of the frontier the Germans had possessed possessed possessed pos pos- themselves of the old natural mountain barrier on which France had for generations relied for her defense They had to deal with a country not naturally defensible They have worked with the ability backed by an unstinted supply of money Incredible as the sum appears France is reported to have expended on her re-armament re and fortification They have piled fortifications all along the frontier Belfort Toul Verdun all have been girdled with forts A great defensive position has been prepared prepared prepared pre pre- pared between Frouard and Port St. St Vincent with forts closing all the principal principal principal prin prin- cipal roads between these positions In second line Langres Besancon and Dijon have been made vast camps camps also also Reims La Fere and Laon The enormous size of these works may maybe maybe maybe be judged by the fact that Verdun alone will require a garrison of men to hold it It has for its external forts a perimeter of twenty-eight twenty miles Belfort 30 and so on Germanys Germany's plan may almost be called the opposite of this She has demolished nearly all the smaller forts in Alsace Secondly she has everywhere elaborated her facilities facilities facilities ties for detraining and entraining troops She has perfected her railway communications communications communications from all parts of Germany where corps assemble to Strasbourg and Metz She has also perfected her railway systems systems systems running north and south as well as east and west in these these conquered provinces Thirdly she has ha made of Strasbourg and Kehl an entrenched camp so vast that it would cover and aud supply an army of men She has over the Rhine no fewer than sixteen railway bridges besides four steam ferries capable of carrying entire trains and also twenty bridges of boats for wheeled carriages The French have an armed and drilled force of men but the best hest military critics do not speak in as high terms of this army as they do of the German They have however a navy second only to England Their naval estimate for 1892 was and for 1893 They expect in the next ten years to r replace place eighty- eighty one war vessels by new ones including ten armor fifty swift cruisers and twenty-one twenty torpedo boats England's naval estimate for this year year is is while the United States is only and yet we Americans think we are doing a wonderful work when we weI I turn out two wo or three vessels a yea year Fy I IOne One of the French rench vessels now building j jwill will cost when completed nearly On the Russian frontier Germany has erected powerful fortifications in the north-east north angle along the Baltic and vast entrenched camps are established j Y at Thorn Posen G Glogan logan an and Kustrin d. on the Oder the whole country be being ing a interlaced by railways leading towards the frontier Russia on her side has f made of Warsaw a great supply camp and has greatly increased the number of railways leading into Warsaw Her army is supposed to consist of armed and equipped soldiers but only 1 those who have learned by experience can realize to what an extent the most 1 0 profound study of official forms and j statistics can mislead a man in his estimate of the fighting value of a i foreign army and in no case is this so JJ marked as in the Russian reports J Russian soldiers are stupid animals and their sheep-like sheep tendency to run into J flocks has been often noticed A Russian Russian Russian Rus Rus- sian sian says It It is pleasanter to die in 1 company and old mother Russia has sons enough II The enormous extent of of Russia compared with her number of Y railways would render the mobilization of her army aimy a matter of weeks or months rather than days Austria can put into s 1 y the field an army of about men They have more officers in their i infantry fantry j than we have officers and men in In our i whole army army- She is defended by the range of the Carpathian mountains and has assisted Nature by the erection of r fortresses guarding the principal routes 1 of invasion Italy has an army of men and a navy much superior to our own but her long sea-coast sea is a constant constant constant con con- stant source of weakness in i a war with witha a power like France It is claimed that Turkey can put into the field an effective effective effective tive army strong Let us now see what would occur should war break out with France and Russia against the rest of continental f. f Europe and England as usual siding h t with those she considered strongest and reaping the advantage of the carrying trade from them all The fundamental principle of German If strategy is to make the nearest field army of the enemy its objector and thoroughly destroy that first Now the t mobilization of the French army is calculated cali cald cal cal- I i d to be completed in In fourteen t f days whereas that of Russia on paper t Wf takes nearly six weeks and a thorough I f stud study of the he difficulties atten attending ing this M 1 mobilization leads one to believe that t t no body of troops capable of off seriously f f threatening the eastern frontier of Prussia Prussia Prussia sia could be gotten together under six g months But in six months the French campaign would be decided one way or orx orthe orthe x the other as six weeks sufficed in 1870 to destro destroy practically every organized force in the country The French have havey y been whipped once and they would no doubt be timid as shown by their dependence on fortifications An enormous enormous enormous enor enor- army can now-a-days now be transported from one frontier of German Germany to the theother theother theother other in a few days without the knowledge knowledge knowledge knowl knowl- edge of her enemies and fight two battles within a short time England expects y to patrol the Baltic with part of her enormous fleet and prevent the Russians from landing a force at any of their s t northern ports In 1870 Germany retained retained re re- tamed the whole of the 1st 2nd i and corps to resist an expected invasion from France by sea As it iti i would take all of Italy's army to defend 1 her sea-cost sea England will send another I portion of her fleet to guard this portion of the Mediterranean and thus release men to help Germany Again England promises to enter the Black BlackSea BlackSea BlackSea Sea defend Constantinople and relieve the Turks of all but the necessity of guarding their frontiers on land My conclusions then are as follows ts Germany will whip France any time if left alone If Russia steps in Austria and Italy will assist Germany and the chances are that France would be placed hors-de-combat hors before Russia could be ready to strike an effectual blow And by the time she was ready her progress would be effectually blocked at her own frontier and she be eventually compelled to retreat and make peace at a sacrifice It is possible that the fear of the result will maintain peace in Europe still for many years and if this is so the first difference ma may occur between Russia and England over the Indian frontier Recent events show that European powers are seeking closer alliances but that this is in anticipation of immediate war is extremely doubtful If W. W I K Wright 1ST 16 TH INFANTRY |