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Show STOCK MARKET UNDISTURBED BY EVENTFUL DEVELOPMENTS Business Prospects Remain Encouraging; Food and Crop Situation improves; Liberty Bond Campaign Flourishes. By W. S. COUSINS, Editor The American Banker. NETV YORK, Oct. 12. The average American investor has become . keenly sensitive of the effect of world conditions upon security ! values, and will, in future, be less j liahie to allov himself to become confused con-fused or excited over developments which, under conditions which prevailed two years ago. might have administered more than one big shock to the security markets. mar-kets. When the kaiser, in 1016, in his own magnanimous way. extended his hand in the familiar "kamerad" style to the enemies which were fast completing the iron ring- around him, speculators on both sides of the ocean were thrown into a panic, and security prices tumbled to a level from which many of them have even to this day been unable to elevate themselves. But when the same kaiser, in 118, facing a defeat which can be delayed no longer than a vear at the most, seeks the kindly offices of the president of these United States in effecting ef-fecting "negotiations" leading to a general gen-eral peace, the stock market refuses to become hysterical, and only in a limited degree did the course of security values reflect the momentous possibilities which the immediate future, in lis relation to the progress of the great war. might have in store. In various reviews of the stock market, attention has been called to the strengthened position of the peace stocks as compared wiih the war issues, but thus far the distinction has not been very clear cut, and of many issues it may be said that some difficulty would he encountered en-countered in determining to what classification classifi-cation they really belong. Reconstruction Demands. The demands of reconstruction, for example, ex-ample, will doubtless maintain the activity activ-ity and the prosperity of certain industrial concerns, such as the United States Steel corporation, etc., upon the same basis as they have been enjoying since the great European conflict began. In fact, the readjustment re-adjustment of wage scales and prices of raw materials which may be expected to follow the cessation of hostilities will be an added argument for the increased earning powers of the country's giant corporations. Wall street has figured that peace prospects pros-pects have so definitely appeared that it should be advantageous to give some thought to the effect of termination of the war on securities as a who'e. Bulgaria's Bul-garia's exit from the war, Turkey's crushing defeats. Austria's open bid for peace and the kaiser's tight military position posi-tion may be accepted by many as indicating indi-cating the beginning of the end. and. as is the inevitable custom, the market probably proba-bly will discount the end considerably in advance of the actual signing of peace. Among the stocks which are to be regarded re-garded .5 peace stocks, we should place first the shares of oil companies. In the transition from war to peace conditions the motor industry should benefit considerably. consid-erably. Copper stocks should do quite well with peace, probably as well as during dur-ing the war period. Doubtless the price of copper will go down, but the cost of production also will go down. The tobacco to-bacco companies evidently will do as large a business after the war as at present. pres-ent. In fact, the tobacco business is growing rapidly and may be expected to continue to grow regardless of war or peace ; railroad and shipping stocks belong be-long In the same classification. Bond Campaign Flourishes. There is a disposition in some parts of the country to take a discouraging attitude atti-tude toward the progress of the fourt h Liberty loan campaign, but where this is the case it should inspire to redoubled efforts instead of any slackening of i he pace. While most of the handicaps un-W which the third campaign was conducted are lacking at this tim, new handicaps in the shape of an epidemic of influenza and the kaiser's bid for peace have arisen to take their place, and, because of the former, progress in some parts of the country has been unavoidably held up. In some places, in fact, all public meetings meet-ings and gatherings have been forbidden, and thus the campaign has been robbed of much of the zest which is of such value to an enterprise of this c haracter. In his address at New York two weeks I ago Secretary McAdoo uttered a mild criticism of that class of people who ; had failed to subscribe for bonds in mod-j mod-j erate amounts in excess of 10, Oh, and I through his order special tax exempt ion I lect slat ion was provided in order to in-I in-I crease the attractiveness of Liberty I bonds for those who are able, if unwilling, unwill-ing, to invest in the amounts mentioned. Although it is generally supposed that I an investment limit of tax-exempt Liberty Lib-erty loan bonds of the 4 and Ppr I cent issues Is $S0,0ih), it has been pointed I out that ' the limit of the exemption ! is really $110,000. The additional ?."'h- 000 Is accounted for by the conversion ! of that amount of ."' per cent Liberty i bonds, already exempt, into bonds bear-, bear-, ing interest at 4U per cent. Conversion Results. Such a conversion would give the holder an additional return of s4 per cent, but by making the conversion he loses the conversion privilege and also deprives himself of the permanent tav-exempiion feature of the 3 's, the converted bonds being exempt from surtaxes and excess war profits taxes only until two years after the war. Incidentally, the holder, in making such a conversion, would give up a bond selling at slightly above par for one having a market value of two or 1 more points lower. It is recognized, of course, that prior to the . opening of the campaign the treasury had already received through sales of certificates of indebtedness issued is-sued in anticipation of the loan about ?4,0u0,0OiOXi. While these certificates are, of course, mere promises to pay at a specific date and will, in fact, be paid in cash where desired, they are designed to be turned In as part of the purchase price of loan subscriptions, and it goes without saying t hat the banks will have keen Incentive to induce their clients to come forward patriotically with their subscriptions to t lie loan. Some of the backwardness thus far shown in war loan subscriptions is also attributable to reductions in net incomes. Taxation has increased to such an extent, and promises prom-ises to increase still further, that the net savings possible from incomes by fairly well-to-do persons is greatly reduced. Uncertainty as to the exact terms of the new war revenue bill seems to be forcing a waiting attitude upon ma ny classes who, until this uncertainty is removed, re-moved, feel they do not know the extent they may safely go in subscriptions to the loan. For this reason Secretary McAdoo Mc-Adoo Is urging the senate committee to make rapid progress in preparing the bill that is to be presented as a substitute substi-tute for the house measure. Food and Crops. The government's la test crop report shows general and national improve-men improve-men t in crop prospects over a month aeo, but on the whole t he volume is well below the expect at ions of early spring. Wheat did not reach the billion-bushel billion-bushel point and did not establish a new high record. Its yield is esti mated by tine department of agriculture at f'l 9jo.noo bushels, a figure which is a substantial sub-stantial advance from the 1017 yield of 65s2S,Oi"0 bushels, and also from the S3i5.3iS.OOo-hu.shel crop of As to corn, a falling off of 4 4 1.7 19. 000 bushels from last year's production is to be noted, the relative figures being 2,717,-I 2,717,-I 775 bushels and 31.J ?." bushels, re-: re-: snectively, in 1915 and 1&17. In view of the high prices current for all farm , products, it becomes obvious that a sus-1 sus-1 tained degree of prosperity and active . buying power will be present in the south and west. There certainly fho-jid be no lagging in war loan subscriptions In those sections, especially when it is considered that the crops already have been gathered and in large degree sold. The October price of wheat Is acc-p-ed bv the department at $2C. against JCV'fi a year ago. Corn ! $1.."V.. acainst $1.7? I per bushel : cotton. cents, against 27." rent11. The four principal prin-cipal crops, spring wheat, corn, oats and barley, show a gain from last month's est i mates of 1 2o.r,i'""'.r,'V' Mifhe. Buckwheat Buck-wheat and fax were the only crops In which losses were noted, Manv believed that the final yield of winter whit will be in excess of the last government fore- cast. |