Show Quirky I Electoral tt Scenarios Abound in in T Tight Mi 1 Campaign Dana Milbank The Washington Post Could one of these electoral college nightmares be our destiny President Bush and Sen ben deadlock on John Kerry Tuesday with electoral votes but apiece a single Bush elector in West Virginia defects swinging the election to Kerry Or Bush and Kerry are headed toward an electoral 2nd college tie but the Congressional District of Maine breaks with the rest of the state giving its one electoral electoral electoral elec elec- toral vote vote and and the presidency cy to cy to Bush Or the Massachusetts senator senator senator sena sena- tor wins an upset victory in Colorado and appears headed to the White House but a Colorado ballot initiative that passes causes four of the states state's nine electoral votes to togo togo togo go to Bush creating Bush creating an electoral electoral electoral elec elec- toral college tie that must be resolved in the US U.S. House None of these scenarios is likely to occur next week but neither is any far Tuesdays Tuesday's election probably will be decided in 11 states where polls currently show the race is too tight to predict predicta a winner And assuming theother the theother theother other states go as predicted a computer analysis finds no fewer than 33 combinations in which those 11 states could divide to produce a to electoral tie Normally such outcomes are strictly theoretical But not this time with the election seemingly so close and Flukey things probably happen in in every election but because most are not close nobody pays any attention said Charles Cook an elections handicapper Cook says this election is on course to match distinction distinction distinction dis dis- of having five states decided by less than half a percentage point It is still possible that the vote on Tuesday will produce a clear winner of both the electoral and popular votes But if the winners winner's margin is small less than 1 percent of the popular vote is a rule of See Election continued on page 3 Election continued from front thumb the odds increase that the quirks of the electoral electoral electoral elec elec- toral college could again decide the presidency and again raise doubts about a presidents president's legitimacy Let us hope for a wide victory by one t of the two the alternative is too awful to contemplate said Walter Berns Bems an electoral college specialist at the American Enterprise Institute But many political strategists are preparing for a narrow narrow and and possibly split split decision Jim Jordan former Kerry campaign campaign campaign cam cam- manager now working working working work work- ing on a Democratic vote mobilization effort puts the odds at one in three that Bush will share the fate Al AI Gore suffered in 2000 a vote popular-vote win but an electoral loss Its actually looking more and more plausible he said citing a number of polls showing a Bush lead nationally but a Kerry lead leadin leadin leadin in many battleground states I v A repeat of Bush 2000 losing the popular vote but winning the electoral is count considered less likely because the president president president dent has been boosting his support in already Republican states and reducing his deficit in some safely Democratic states Under the candidate candidate candidate candi candi- Amendment Am if one date does oes not get votes the decision goes to the House where each state would get a vote a formula that would guarantee guarantee guarantee guar guar- antee a Bush victory the Senate picks the vice president president president pres pres- ident |