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Show Volume XIV Issue XVII The Ogden Valley news Page November 15, 2007 A “Recession Resistant” U.S. Economy Bodes Well for Weber County’s Small Businesses Highlights • The Zions Bank Small Business Index for Utah was 108.6 in October 2007, up from a revised 106.6 in September 2007. • Utah's unemployment rate was estimated at 2.7% in the latest month, up slightly from the prior month's 2.6% rate. Total Utah employment is up an estimated 53,500 jobs during the past 12 months. • Weber County experienced job growth of 3,000 jobs (3.2%) from a year ago. Joblessness registered 3.5%, up from the 3.3% unemployment rate one year ago. • Surprising strength of the overall U.S. economy continues to suggest that a housing-led recession will be avoided, thereby boosting the Utah small business sector. • The U.S. economy added 166,000 net new jobs in October, nearly twice the expected rise. The U.S. unemployment rate remained at a 14-month high of 4.7% U.S. Economic Growth Continues Despite the national media’s obsession with one negative housing story after another, overall, U.S. economic growth remains positive. U.S. GDP gross domestic product, the value of all goods produced and services provided within U.S. borders) rose at a 3.9% real (after inflation) annual rate in 2007’s third quarter, the strongest quarterly growth pace in more than a year. The third quarter’s 3.9% real annual growth rate followed a similar 3.8% growth pace in the April-June quarter and the anemic 0.6% growth pace during the first quarter. Severe weakness in the nation’s housing sector did obviously have a negative impact on third quarter performance, as in numerous prior quarters. However, rising U.S. exports to a strong global economy, combined with improved consumer spending and rising business investment, more than offset the housing weakness. Most forecasts for U.S. GDP growth in the current quarter are near a 1.5%-2.2% real annual rate. The consensus view has the economy also avoiding recession in 2008, with modest growth near a 2.0% real annual rate during the first quarter approaching a 2.8%-3.0% real growth pace by the end of 2008. We continue to suggest only a 25% chance of a U.S. recession during the next 12 months. Performance of the U.S. economy is a component of the Zions Bank Small Business Index for Utah. Utah Employment The Utah unemployment rate-the most heavily weighted component of the Zions Bank Small Business Index for Utah-was estimated at 2.7% in the latest month, up slightly from the prior month’s 2.6% rate. The 2.7% rate compares to an identical rate during the same month one year ago. A jobless rate of 2.3% in February ranked with the lowest ever recorded in the state and was the lowest in the continental U.S. A higher Utah unemployment rate is a positive contributor to the Index as it implies increased access to Utah labor. Utah’s unemployment rate averaged 2.9% in 2006, 4.3% in 2005, 5.1% in 2004, 5.7% in 2003 and in 2002, and 4.4% in 2001. These rates compare to an average Utah unemployment rate of 3.5% between 1995 and 1999. Total Utah employment rose by an estimated 53,500 jobs (up 4.4%) over the past 12 months. The 4.4% rise is one of the strongest annualized Utah gains in more than 10 years, and is the strongest job growth rate in the nation. This rise compares to a revised gain of 54,000 jobs in the prior year-over-year period. Utah added 55,200 jobs in 2006, 43,700 jobs in 2005, and 30,200 jobs in 2004. These totals compare to gains averaging 38,000 new jobs annually during the 1994-2000 period and a net loss of 1,300 jobs in 2001 through 2003. More recently, weaker job gains, leading to lesser income creation and weaker retail spending, have a negative impact upon Utah’s small businesses...and therefore, the Index. The Zions Bank Small Business Index The Zions Bank Small Business Index for Utah was 108.6 during October 2007, up from a revised 106.6 during September 2007. The Index measures business conditions from the viewpoint of the Utah small business owner or manager. A higher Index number is associated with more favorable business “conditions” for Utah’s small businesses. The Index uses 100.0 for calendar year 1997 as its base year. The Index includes revisions to various historical and new forecast components as they become available. Local Performance Weber County experienced job growth of 3,000 jobs (3.2%) from a year ago. Joblessness registered 3.5%, up from the 3.3% unemployment rate one year ago. Davis County payrolls expanded by 2,800 jobs (2.7%) in the past year. The unemployment rate was 2.8% in the latest month, down from 3.1% one year ago. Cache County employment grew by 900 jobs (1.9%) in the latest 12-month period. The area’s jobless rate was 2.3%, down from the 2.6% rate of one year ago. Salt Lake County employment rose by 24,200 jobs (4.1%) over the year. The county’s unemployment rate fell to 2.7% in the latest month, down from 3.1% last year. Utah County employment grew by 10,600 jobs (5.8%) over the last 12 months. The area’s jobless rate was 2.6%, down from the 3.0% rate of one year ago. Washington County payrolls expanded by 2,600 jobs (4.9%) in the past year. The unemployment rate was 2.8% in the latest month, down from 3.1% one year ago. National Employment The U.S. Department of Labor reported a net rise of 166,000 jobs in October 2007, nearly twice the consensus forecast, and the largest gain in five months. Previously reported employment gains for August and September were revised lower by a total of 10,000 jobs. The U.S. unemployment rate was 4.7% in October, matching September’s rate, and the highest level since July 2006. March’s 4.4% jobless rate matched that of October 2006 as the lowest in more than five years. The average hourly wage rose 0.2% (three cents) to $17.58 hourly, a rise of 3.8% over the past 12 months. Goods-producing employment continued to decline in September, with a net loss of 24,000 jobs. Construction employment fell by 5,000 positions, while manufacturing lost 21,000 jobs. Service-providing employment led the way in September with a rise of 190,000 net new jobs. The professional & business services sector added 65,000 net new jobs during October, while the leisure & hospitality sector added 56,000 jobs. The education & health services sector added 43,000 net new positions, while the government sector added 36,000 jobs. This latest data now suggests that the U.S. economy added an average of 112,000 net new jobs monthly during the past four months, down 16% from the 134,000 average monthly gain in 2007’s first half, and down 41% from the 189,000 average monthly gain in 2006. The November 2007 Zions Bank Small Business Index for Utah will be released on December 11, 2007. Additional information is available at <www.zionsbank.com> Jeff Thredgold, Thredgold Economic Associates, Economic Consultant to Zions Bank (801) 614-0403 (c)2007 Thredgold Economic Associates Utah State Quarters Available in Zions Bank Branches—Zions first to offer commemorative coins to the public Zions Bank made available the new Utah quarters for exchange to the public at its branch offices on Friday, November 9. As the official sponsor bank of the Utah Commemorative Quarter Launch Ceremony that day at the Rio Grande Depot in Salt Lake City, Zions will be the bank to offer the circulating coins at the event. Customers are limited to two $10-rolls of quarters (40 coins per roll) beginning November 9, but may purchase additional rolls the following week. In addition, a limited number of commemorative sets of quarters from both the Denver and Philadelphia Mints will be available for purchase through Zions Bank at the Rio Grande Depot on November 9, beginning at 10:00 a.m. “As Utah’s oldest financial institution, and the only local bank with a statewide distribution of 114 branches, Zions Bank is proud to be the official sponsor bank of the Utah quarter launch,” said Zions Bank President and CEO Scott Anderson. The design on the reverse of the Utah quarter features two locomotives moving toward the golden spike that joined the Central Pacific and Union Pacific railroads, linking East to West and transforming both the Utah Territory and the Nation. The coin bears the inscriptions “Crossroads of the West,” “Utah,” and “1896.” The joining of the transcontinental railroad at Promontory, Utah on May 10, 1896 ushered in the development of the American West, making cross-country transportation more convenient and economical. The construction of the railroad brought diverse ethnic and religious populations to Utah. For a digital image of the Utah quarter, go to <http://arts.utah.gov> Additional information on Zions Bank is available at <www.zionsbank.com> Thinking about a career in Real Estate? Exit Realty Wasatch is now hiring new and experienced agents. Come see what we have to offer! New North Ogden office opening in November and look for an Eden office in 2008! 801-475-8111 Available for Rent HUNTSVILLE 6 BR, 5 BA $67 ,000 $7 ,000 4 BR, 4 BA Amazing views of Lake! One acre lot. Over 5,500 sq.ft. Huge 1,800 sq.ft 4 car garage. Vaulted ceilings in basement. 801- 41- 415 COREY HADLEY EDEN 180 views of entire Valley from large covered deck. Two master suites. Theater is fully wired. Great Trappers Ridge location! 801-7 1-484 DAN MORTENSEN LISA MCGONEGAL REALTOR (801) 645-4395 MLS#728619 OFFERED AT $645,000 3 CAR GARAGE, WHEELCHAIR ACCESS, 4 BD (INCLUDING 2 MASTER SUITES), 3.75 BA, 2 LAUNDRY, 2 RIVER ROCK FIREPLACES, CUSTOM FINISHING THROUGHOUT! KEN TURNER REAL ESTATE, LLC EDEN, UTAH $150,000 EDEN $246,000 $4 8,000 EDEN 1 BR, 1 BA 2 BR, 2 BA 4 BR, 3 BA Condo is close to Fully furnished Wolf Great views of Wolf Creek. Lodge 2br w/ loft. On nearly an acre of land. clubhouse, pool, hot tubs, and tennis courts. Updated inside. Upstairs All bedrooms are very end unit with access off large. Walkout basement. Updated tile counter tops and floors. Unit is sold main parking level. Oversized 3rd car garage. fully furnished. Views of entire Valley. EDEN 801-7 1-484 DAN MORTENSEN 801-7 1-484 DAN MORTENSEN 801-7 1-484 DAN MORTENSEN |