'/3 Wednesday, Jan. 11,2006 797-1762 statesman@cc.usu.edu www.utahstatesman.com Utah Statesman Whoever takes ower in Iraq runs risk of a coup Staff Editor in Chief Brooke Nelson News Editor Aaron Falk The provisional results of strated an independent streak. Ihe December elections in He may or may not have Iraq are already in dispute, but understood that civic groups |hat doesn't stop Washington act as a guard against coups, from pointing to the vote as a but he clearly realized that ess in its quest to create they also can be the source peaceful, stable and free of popular revolutions. Had Saddam allowed Iraqi civil liddle East. society to prosBut the mere per, he might tffact of an election fc|_il| | | « .cannot change | ) | 3 l I VIG^AT Assistant News Editor Marie MacKay Features Editor Steve Shinney Assistant Features Editor Emma Tippetts Sports Editor Andrea Edmunds nave enc e ' d up 1 overthrown, like ~J_J the shah next addam Hussein door in Iran. governed as a brutal dictaSaddam did try to boost tor not simply because he iwas cruel but also because the legitimacy of his government. He appealed to Iraqi Pof the treacherous political landscape that destabilized nationalism, sided with the 1 condemned his relationship with his own Palestinians, imperialism and picked fights Lnilitary. Saddam was highwith regional adversaries. Ply vulnerable to a military I coup, and future Iraqi leaders But such tactics were never I yvill be just as susceptible. very effective given the ille: Regardless of the election's gitimate means - coups and .outcome, a coup will prob- conspiracies - by which he r'ably follow a U.S. pullout, and his cronies had assumed tana Iraq will again be ruled power in the first place, and given the brutality with which hby a dictator. he crushed civil society. I With University of If all this sounds like a Minnesota sociologist Evan vicious cycle, it is. Yet some Schofer, I developed a quanti- societies do manage to escape fiable way to assess a nation's from authoritarianism, mini"risk of a coup. Our measure mize coup risk and consoliis a bit like a blood pressure date stable, democratic institest in that high scores equal tutions. high risk - but it measures the The U.S. cultivated risk of coups, not strokes. democracy in Japan and West The test cannot predict Germany after World War II, with certainty when or if any and in South Korea after the particular regime will experi- Korean War. The Bush adminence a coup. But it has proved istration has invested considto be a powerful tool for erable effort into creating the establishing which regimes conditions for democracy to iare vulnerable. Governments emerge in Iraq. So why isn't with the worst scores on the that tipping the balance? test are about 30 times more As NiaTl Ferguson notes likely to be overthrown in a in his book "Colossus," the coup than those with the best formal American occupations scores. When we computed of Japan and West Germany our results before the U.S. lasted seven and 10 years, "invasion, Iraq already had a respectively, and it took bad score. Today, following nearly 40 years of American years of violence, it is surely military presence in South _worse. Korea to nurture a genuine, The test looks at three fac- stable democracy there. The tors. First, the strength of a commitment of treasure and nation's civil society, which troops was massive. is based on the number and And critically, in each of robustness of civic organiza- those cases, democratization tions such as political parties, achieved traction only after unions, social clubs and the the cessation of violence, of like. ' which there is no end in sight Such groups, it turns out, in Iraq. Under warlike conhave the capacity to dis- ditions, the country's social obey coup plotters' orders. In infrastructure can't develop Bolivia in 1979, for example, - insurgency and counterina labor union organized pro- surgency aren't the building test strikes that sent a rebel- blocks of civil society. lious army garrison back to its And what about the elecbarracks after an attempted tions? It's important to rememcoup. By contrast, when civil ber that about half of all society is weak, there is often coups are launched against little to stand in the way of a democratic regimes. That coup. means the December elecSecond, a nation's history tions, however they turn out, of past coups. A recent coup will neither magically creincreases the score; past ate a sense of legitimacy nor coups are a good predictor protect the Iraqi government of future coups, because the from its own armed forces. violent overthrow of a gov- Coup risk is a deep, underlyernment undermines institu- ing feature of Iraqi society at tions, such as courts and leg- this time in history, and it will islatures, that check instabil- not disappear anytime soon. ity. Before the war, when forLegitimacy, the third eign policy experts warned dimension of our coup-risk Bush that Iraq was ungoverntest, refers to whether citizens able, they did not literally accede to the state's right to mean that the country could make society's rules. Wnen a not be governed. political system enjoys legitiRather, they meant that macy, the armed forces are ruling Iraq for any length of unlikely to try to take con- time, with any level of stabiltrol. ity, requires an iron fist. Before the U.S. invaded, The experts were right. Iraq performed well - that Washington still confronts "is, it showed a low risk for the same dilemma that it has military takeover - in only faced all along. one area: it hadn't had a coup It can install a dictator to in more than 30 years. But rule Iraq after U.S. troops that very fact meant that Iraq leave, or it can leave behind scored dismally on the other a situation - perhaps even two factors. a nascent democracy - that That's because to prevent will ultimately yield chaos, coups, Saddam ruthlessly cut coups and then a dictator. off challenges to his power, It is true that whoever finalexecuting or jailing high- ly emerges as the last leader ranking generals, for exam- standing in Baghdad will not ple. Such actions don't nur- be named Saddam Hussein. ture a civil society or create However, only a cynic - or political legitimacy. a con artist - would depict Saddam also imprisoned, Iraq's likely authoritarian tortured and executed would- future as a victory. be organizers of civil society: Aaron Belkin wrote this intellectuals, artists, clerics column for the and politicians who demonLos Angeles Times. Assistant Sports Editor Bryan Hinton Diversions Editor Matt Wright Copy Editor Letters to the Editor Lindsay Kite Photo Editor \FublicForum Animals are treated humanely when being raised for food Dear Editor, Whether or not to use animal products for food consumption is a personal choice. I respect everyone's right to choose, however that decision should be made based on facts and correct knowledge. Crowing up on a dairy farm, I know first hand how the animals are treated. When animals have economic value to humans, they are fed, cared for, and sheltered. It is in the interest of the owners to make sure the animals and the land they are raised on are kept safe and healthy. Owners will spend late nights caring for sick animals or helping with the birth of offspring. No one cares more for the animals. It is a bit of a paradox that these same owners enjoy eating these animals. It is because they understand that these animals were given for our use and benefit. Ruminant animals (animals with four stomachs) are able to consume forages off land that is not suitable for raising crops for human "When animals haveJT; economic value to humans, they are fed, bred for, and sheltered." consumption, and convert it to food that is suitable for human consumption. When's the last time you went to a restaurant and ordered some Kochia grass? You wouldn't, because as a monogastric (one stomach) you could not digest it. Humans are not the only species that use other animals for food. Carnivores consume only animal products. Dogs and cats will drink milk from cows whenever they are given the chance. The USDA recommends three servings a day of milk, and two to three servings of meat. These recommendations are made based on a vast number of studies. There are animal products available with little or no fat, or if you prefer the taste that comes with fat, reduce fat intake from other areas of your diet. Something I learned in my chemistry class here at Utah State University is that plant products, sucn as margarine are more carcinogenic (cancer causing) than animal products, such as butter because they contain unsaturated fatty acids. Ranchers and farmers who consume their own animal products are healthy and strong. They work outside bucking bales of hay and doing other physical activities. Sincerely, Bruce Richards David Dreier's dilemma GOP leaders in Congress must have had quite a weekend devising a crash program to corral the scandal spreading from lobbyist Jack Abramoff. The announcement Sunday that House Speaker J. Dennis Hasten would give the job to Rep. David Dreier, R-Calif., had a slapdash feel, with Dreier hastily flying back to Washington from California. He takes charge of a legislative effort low on specifics but intended, in Dreier's words, to "deal with this issue and get it behind us as quickly as possible." • Abramoffstruckapleadeal with prosecutors, sending legislators into a frenzy to return or give away contributions from him and his clients. And Abramoff buddy Tom DeLay of Texas said he would not, after all, seek to regain his post as House majority leader once he has dealt with that pesky Texas criminal indictment. DeLay could no longer plausibly dismiss criminal charges as partisan attacks by spiteful prosecutors or credibly deny the taint of Abramoffs luxury golf trips, skybox tickets and lavish contributions. Dreier is really in a pickle. There is no fast way to get rid of the scandal, and no stomach in the House leadership for legislation that would close the profitable revolving door between legislative offices and the lobbying industry.. If Dreier and Hastert were serious, they would take as a starting point a bill by Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., to open the lobbying industry's doings to public scrutiny and to choke off the flow of favors (which in other cultures would be known as bribes). The bill isn't perfect, but it has teeth and has already been introduced in the Senate. Why start over, except in the name of doing less damage to the lobbying trough? Dreier has his own problems. His 2004 re-election race was a relative squeaker for an incumbent, largely because of sniping from the right that he was soft on immigration and social issues. If the main aim of the party in power is to stay in power, it can't choke off the flow of lobbyists' millions. Thafs why Dreier's call to "get this behind us" sounds more like a yearning for damage control than an awakening of conscience. This editorial appeared in Tuesdays Los Angeles Times. Michael Sharp Assistant Photo Editor Jessica Alexander Editorial Board Brooke Nelson Aaron Falk Bryan Hinton Marie MacKay Michael Sharp Steve Shinney About letters • Letters should be limited to 350 words. • All letters may be shortened, edited or rejected for reasons of good taste, redundancy or volume of similar letters. • Letters must be topic oriented. They may not be directed toward individuals. Any letter directed tq a specific individual may be edited or not ! printed. • No anonymous letters will be published. Writers must sign all letters and include a phone number or email address as well as a student identification number. 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