Show EARLY MY POLITICAL PREDICTIONS By Frederic J. J Haskin Recently a special elect election on was held in New York state and while it t was only to toA the term of a single congressman it was watched all over the country with the greatest interest It Is la taken by some iome to be the tho first straw to show how political winds may blow in n No No- vember In this district for some Borne y years rs represented by Alanson B B. B Houghton Hough- Hough ton the Republican vote Is normal normally ly large In the special election Lewis Henry a ft Republican won but by a n reduced majority The recent primary elections in Jill Jill- lois jobs are taken as being of ot great Interest in interest interest In- In terest as indications fo to the tho feeling foaling on m questions before country These wore held at the tho same time Ume with th the that there were two upsets In sitting congressmen Ira congressmen Ira C. C Copey Copley Cop- Cop ley ey and Clifford Irel Ireland nd However tho the New York election Is 19 taken as better material for judging feeling in the country as Republican votes vores beat Mr Copley and Mr Ireland I Issues confined to their districts entered entered entered en en- most largely Into the fight al although although although al- al though some some significance is seen seen Inthe in inthe inthe the fact that both were defeated by wets as both Mr Copley and Mr consistent consistent- Ireland have voted dry ly Around the capitol Republican I I politicians who do not try to deceive de do- j de themselves know that there Is dissatisfaction with congress through throughout out the country The delay In th the passage of the tariff bill Is one of or th they the great causes of this feeling And because because because be be- cause the average citizen does not pause to analyze what is causing the delay he he groups his grievance under undera a general grouch against congress as a whole This displeasure is being felt by house members who will come up for re-election re this autumn The business business business busi busi- ness men want the tariff a settled thing Ching They feel that the uncertainty uncertain uncertain- ty as to to provisions the l law w will contain when it Is finally approved by president is adversely affecting business It cannot properly settle down to pulling out of its present present- situation until this la is done Tl Tile The e house passed the bill along to the senate months and months ago ItIs It Itis Itis is in the senate finance committee that the delay is being experienced Yet the house members are feeling the wrath of ot constituents on this and other accounts Election for tor Short Term The election n In iii the New York di dIs tract was held because Mr Houghton Hough- Hough ton resigned to become American ambassador to Germany His vote In 1920 amounted to in round numbers his Democratic opponent received In the neighborhood of or 20 votes In the special election the Democrat Frank Irvine received ed about votes the successful success success- ful Republican about votes As the election had the wet and dry issue in it it a great deal of Importance Importance importance Im Im- im- im has been attached to the tremendously reduced majority Inthis in inthis inthis this normally strong Republican dis dis- Th The dry element has been worried by it and the wets perhaps more jubilant than the showing would justify The situation is compared with the mistaken idea the country received ed in 1904 Then Theodore Roosevelt Roosevelt Roose Roose- velt volt won by a popular majority o of votes over Judge Alton B B. B Parker This was hailed at t tho time as a tremendous tribute to the personal personal personal per per- popularity enjoyed by the late President Roosevelt However on that occasion wise analyzed the vote voto in comparison comparison comparison com com- parison with the presidential vote four years before and discovered some rather startling facts William McKInley running for the second time in 1900 received a popular vote Tote of while William J. J Bryan Dryan th the Democrat polled votes Mr McKInley's popular majority therefore was less than votes However when Mr Ir Roosevelt was elected Judge Parker polled but votee votee roughly roughly less votes than Mr Bryan received four tour years before The total Republican Republican Republican lican and Democratic vote in 1900 was Four years later despite the fact that hundreds of thousands of voters had come to le legal legal legal le- le gal age ago In the intervening years the combined popular vote of Roosevelt Roosevelt Roosevelt Roose Roose- velt and and Parker was roughly less than the vote in 1900 Politicians whose success In that game for Cor decades gives their opinions opInions opinions ions weight point to this as meaning meanIng mean mean- ing that in 1904 Democrats had reached a state of disgust and while they would not become turncoat turncoats and vote vo-te for Republican candidates they refused refused- to vote at all aU The figures would appear to bear them out in this argument The rime special election in the ol old Houghton district in New York state Is taken by these timers old to mean that the Republican voters may sulk in their tents and that large numbers numbers num num- bers of or them will refuse to vote at all In the special election for congress congress congress con con- gress only 40 per cent of the normal Republican voting strength could be begotten begotten begotten gotten out to the polls However there was some falling off in the time Democratic Uc strength strength against about two years ago However However However How How- ever Is 85 per cent of the normal Democratic strength which is a a. worrying figure figuro to Republican politicians Sonic Some Reaction l Expected Some Somo reaction from the dous Republican victory of 1920 was naturally expected Then Republicans titans won the house by a a. tremendously tremendously tremendously Increased majority and PresIdent President President dent Harding was was swept into office once by the greatest majority ever heard of in this cou country try His majority inthe Inthe in inthe the popular vote was greater for In Instance instance instance in- in stance than the total vote received by Woodrow Wilson in 1916 when the Republican vote vota was split be between between between be- be tween Taft and Roosevelt Politicians whose views carry weight look for a reduction in the I Republican house membership they would not care to say so publicly public publIc- ly the present majority In the lower branch of congress is unwieldy II It ItIs Itis Is bad for tor party discipline they contend contend contend con con- tend because a a mere matter of twenty or thirty votes the wrong way wayon wayon on a n party measure now Is no cause for a moments moment's worry It is an open Olen secret in Washington Washing Washing- ton that the Democratic national committee Is beginning to be a little fearful that the apathy of Republican can cant voters this year may result In Ina Ina ina a Democratic majority in the house With an eye eyo to the future frankly this is not desired by the Democratic organization In order to have good ground for tor a general attack in 1924 when another presidential election occurs Issues would be clearer it the party now out of power could duck responsibility for all measures This could not be true if lC the Democrats Democrats Democrats Demo Demo- should win the house this fall This Is the situation as it Is generally generally generally gen gen- viewed in Washington at the present time About six months re remain remain remain re- re main be before Core the election in Novem Novem- ber Within that the period it is possible e of course th that t congress ss may be able to redeem somewhat somewhat somewhat some some- what in the eyes of the people However However However How How- ever there are pessimists in the thc Republican Republican Re Ro- publican ranks in congress who declare declare de de- cl clare re that the country expected a Republican administration to perform perform per per- form sonie some miracle of legislation to put the country on Its feet In a busIness business business busi busI- ness way almost overnight reducing reducing ing In taxes and bringing prosperity Some of these men look forward confidently confidently confidently con con- but naturally with no Joy to being returned to private lifo If H business sho should ld have a sharp re revival revival revival re- re vival within that period the prospects prospects prospects pros pros- for many present members of congress would revive with time the business business business busi busi- ness boom |