Show BUSINESS IN GENERAL GOOD GOOI I With Plain Exceptions Trade Movement Is Going Forward 13 By P SpecIal Correspondent Examiner Copyright 1923 1 1 YORK TORK Aug AUK At 18 l At their points at the th close cloe clos of ot the ast wee week stock exchange prices he hae io got cot back the greater part otheir of their loss Joss since the tho first t of July This In Itself Is 15 proof of ot the of ot o the tho Intense pessi- pessi which governed d Wall Street transactions ti a month ago aco It also bears out ot the contention that the propaganda whether directly or In- In Indirectly Indirectly Indirectly directly designed to undermine In the tho business out out- outlook outlook look Jook to Induce Indue cancellation of or- or orders orders orders ders along alone with curtailment of ot new and thereby bring brine about bout a serious recession was wa unwarranted ed and must tall fall because It ought to tall fan It Is difficult to discuss the trade movement as It if It were subject to t certain broad and General n L Rather Eather the th matter has to t be bo taken ta en up In detail I J There hero her an arc well will defined Instances o ot of overproduction 0 ocr ocr- er- er production like liko oil leather an and automobile tires which have hav had their sequel In costly price cut cut- tinS In oil particularly only the tho ery ery strongest comp can op- op operate crate erate at a profit on pres prest t quota quota- quotations quotations In leather the th situation has hIlS ha been brought forth In the the deficits reported by the leading companies companie for tor the second quarter ot of the yer r There are other cases like the boot and shoe thoo trad trade and some Iome om branches of the metal trade nota nota- notably nota- nota notably bly Ny zinc where here here the th margin marcin of ot profit has been eaten up by the th increase In wages wares Finally there ther Is the much muth agitated position In wheat and In certain kinds of livestock where miscalculation of ot foreign requirements has led It'd to a domes domes- domestic domestic tic tlc supply over with Ith consequent levels BUSINESS S EXCELLENT T If It these various arlous industries were fairly ell ecu a ell representative of ot b IsI- IsI ness sl- sl I ness as a whole the situation would be distinctly unfavorable But the cases considered are plainly ex e- eC exceptions They denote no wide wide- widespread spread pr ad tendency such as was wag pres pres- present pres- pres present ent tnt three sears ears ago no aeo no wild spec spec- speculation speculation and price Inflation no over overstocking 0 oer- oer er- er stocking with priced high raw ma ma- materials and h hh h cost finished goods no excessive advances of ot credit The clearest picture of ot the busi busi- business business ness position In general Is fur fur- furnished fur furnished fished by the record of the retail trade trade which is running 20 per percent percent percent cent or more ahead 0 of a year ago and by the tonnage sti th Mi- which ei a-ei a e show sho me the largest freight Mul h ul In the history of the country OIL TIlL TITE Wn-Mt Wn SPOT A summary of the th facts as DI they stand at present would seem teem to bp b that b-that that no general causes of depres depres- depression Mon sion are arc at work cork that for tor specia reasons conditions in a doyen or perhaps a score of ot lines are not good but that in the main mate body bod v ot of Industry matters matlen are moving movine along In several directions directions directions where here there wa was q doubt up to toa toa toa a fortnight ago aco there is now much more assurance The sharp tip tip- up upward ward turn In the cotton staple awoke the goods trade to compard- compard tc c th the I activity Ity again acain The Increased expense which tho steel companies will sill III be under as they shift from the 12 to th the hour 8 day da will pre lead to higher prices price for tor steel teel At least they Insure against nn n ni reduction and the strengthen strengthen- Ing strengthening of ot the price outlook has had Its effect in making steel con con- consumers consumers con consumers sumers more mor anxious about their future l supplies PP 11 Then en t with oil which has been the th particular eak spot the tho drastic price cuts the tle t e week are bound bound to speed As the St Standard OIl president pointed out out the present situation has resulted from a comparatively small companies mal amount of selling sc by com com- holdon which were re unable to hold taner after atter on therefore CIOC It should not last Jast this forced liquidation is la oer o'er 0 Cr FOREIGN FOREIGN- TR DC Th The July figures on the thc foreign trade showing a balanco ot 26 in favor of ot the tho United States were an ln upset to outside Id lear th-lear theories In T the tb early part of the ear ar t there 1 was an excess of ot Im- Im Imports ports rt over exports wirters of the academic me h- h were fond of ot say Say Say- t y be- be begun cun gun gin t to to- settle settle their current debits In goods Instead ot of In gold and securities Another Idea was that that being nation a cre na- na tion we were In the position that England h hs been In for tor the tho last three ot of II a century where we were likely to have a nent perma- perma perman excess ot of commodity Imports Imp In sin n ret return for the Interest American on Amer Amer- Amer ican capital loaned thread abroad U It will be interesting to see Ie how the proponents of these theories attempt to square themselves with the July returns In the meantime the view Is tbt the heavy Imports ot of the spring which swung Re the tado tade balance ce against u us 9 ere a temporary mci- mci dent Incident mcie e of the thO short lived domestic stocks of nt goods i had P replenished hed and the tho fey fey- erish bu Ing movement was over the demand for foreign r raw w win and in Unfinished materials materials-be Jn materials began falloff to tall fall all off Our iT export trade trado ta d has baa dropped v rv little comparatively it was down In July only from the high In March But un- un Im ports port Imports Import during the same sam period de- de ded d OM and It lt Is la this which tells the story tory TIO IJ In consequence of ot the tho reversal ot of the tho trad trade balance balanco gold eold Imports Import are aro again on the Increase Eng Em- Em England land within the next two months month has to set up a credit against the next Semi anna Interest on the American war debt If It she ho cannot JI do this through the tho Increased sale ot of goods roods or through the th sale ale of ot her own securities to American In Investors in- in she mus mu rely largely on transfers of gold c i-hi i This threatens to bring up again the problem of gold Inflation which was so I keenly debated si sl-c sl months ago aco It ItI I was reared feared then thit hit the enormous unused supply ot of o gold eold In the ro- ro ve s-ve ive hank fank be bo a temptation to and overO over over But anxiety was relieved when the federal resene e board Issued Its warning anti and made it very Plain that If It trade tride and security markets I kept ept on as ns they were then going It would lead to to drastic measures In the shape ot of increases in the official discount rate rate The Th an- an announcement an announcement of ot this policy should do ay aay a ay with any of ot un- un un 0 oer er the practical danger Involved In this country having too much gold sold ABROAD I In Europe the situation has i Quieted dol don dOTin n at least Everything Is awaiting the tho sequel to the change In the tho German go gov- gov v- v and whether new S proposal of peace from Berlin will be i met by any front from Paris Those Thosa ibo 10 believe that the lie pretext of holding on out for tor full reparations Is really aiming at crushing Germany ar are very k skeptical n L on this score 06 Meanwhile FrenCh writers and politicians con con- continue to maintain the absurd proposition tint that the tho decline In the tho franc to new low ground Is I due duo to Brit Brit- rit sh h Brith They ha have 0 noth- noth noth-ner noth ng to Sl ny siy as to ho hon in the th mind of the tho world outside o the lh future value of ot the tho French monetary unit appears appear when it Is no longer conceded that I France ranco would b babl be beable beable I beI abl able to collect Indemnity Sufficient nt Ito to co coer er her great treat treasur deficit |