| Show USDA's Crop Forecasts Based On Reports From Farmers i Voluntary v oun Information c- c jr Comes ConIes From Every State l By AL JEDLICKA There might be a lot of fancy figuring figuring fig fig- tiring involved in the U. U S. S department department department depart depart- ment of agricultures agriculture's crop reporting but when the monthly estimates are released to a waiting press to be flashed around the country they are of real value to farmers in planning acreage and studying the markets and of interest to business in plotting plotting plotting plot plot- ting sales of machinery or processing processing process process- processing ing equipment etc Because some unscrupulous speculators once pulled the blinds aside to listen in on the figuring of the crop reporting board the latter's meetings are now held in the ut utmost most secrecy with members secluded behind locked doors and sealed blinds and compelled to bring their own lunches Before the individual individual indi indi- vidual state reports are brought in into into into to the board only th the latter's chairman chairman chairman chair chair- man and the Secretary of Agriculture Agriculture ture have access to them The largest organization of its kind in the world and a model for other countries the USDA's crop reporting board is extraordinarily unique in that it relies upon the voluntary cooperation of some farmers Although their efforts efforts efforts ef ef- ef- ef forts prove of profit to themselves many look upon the work as the highest responsibility According to Dale Bormuth of the USDA's Chicago office the crop reporting reporting reporting re re- re- re porting board working through its 41 field headquarters receives its March acreage estimates through state assessors or inquiries of farmers farmers farmers farm farm- ers representative of their sections As a result of the studies of acreage intentions farmers may be inclined to change crop plans The June Jime report establishes the acreage actually planted Bormuth said and these figures serve as the basis for future estimates Following the establishment of the acreage the next important step is the forecast of the yield with the individual reporters asked to state their normal crops if weather conditions conditions conditions condi condi- were good and insect damage under control From July to October in the case of field and truck crops and from i tJ sI v i 7 V 7 41 1 I II I I I lv I z November to July in the matter of winter wheat the hundreds of thousands thousands thou thou- thousands sands of individual reporters then furnish information on the progress of growth to the field offices with the board carefully checking on the whole national picture In forming their conclusions Bormuth Bormuth Bormuth Bor Bor- Bor- Bor muth said the field offices follow a highly technical procedure applying applying applying apply apply- ing their own experiences against the estimates of the individual reporters reporters reporters re re- re- re porters and considering such factors factors factors fac fac- fac- fac tors as moisture and insects in their calculations In receiving this data the board itself then passes its own judgment on the basis of its own I overall inform information a tion I As a further base for figuring the U. U S. S census bureaus bureau's statistics are used as an indicator of what may be expected in long- long range crop development As could be expected the field directors directors directors di di- rectors compiling state reports must contend with many inconsistencies inconsistencies incon incon- inconsistencies in formulating data A Afew Afew Afew few individual reporters may submit submit sub sub- submit mit outlandish estimates or then again some groups may purposely make low projections In addition th the e cr crop cri p- p pre re reporting s service e- e emust must be careful to cover all areas in which a given crop is grown to balance the estimates between them all aU so as to strike a true picture Another complicating factor Bormuth Bormuth Bor Bor- muth said is the reporting on new crops where the board cannot be guided by past exp experience In all of its reporting activity however the board is being consta constantly assisted by the USDA's experimental stations station sta sta- sta- sta tio tion at t Ames Iowa ova and Raleigh N. N C. C where new procedures are in in development In the case of special crops Bormuth Bormuth Bor Bor- Bormuth muth said the board works hand in hand with grower groups or trade associations in arriving at comprehensive comprehensive comprehensive compre compre- figures During the present world conflict when food assumes a major role in total war the USDA's crop reporting reporting reporting report report- ing service has been of invaluable assistance to government agencies charged with the strategic planning of production Through this service service service ice for instance the government has been able to make a comprehensive comprehensive comprehensive compre compre- allocation of farm machinery machinery machinery ma ma- chinery to certain areas |
