| Show s THE I 1 E OF THE FUTURE A RE BE TER PING n parater FARMER IN th valley V PERIOD gov it agricultural HEAD AD G GIVES HOPES FOR BET TER faut in HOWEVER I 1 DECLARES 8 FARMS FAMIS MUST nn PLACED ON scientific PRO D BASIS FOR foll RESULTS i ay if c TAYLOR i calef of of Marc markets marceas ets U S ac I 1 depton depict agriculture 1 ettora editor a ap 1 11 C tay taylor for chief of ot thet bureau of markets for or tho united states department of agriculture la is both a scientific and old tanner farmer while ills ids years of specialization and intensive study hue have give iiii hm him a wide background I 1 on which to base theory and practice he has also undertaken the file task of understanding the actual conditions which confront the american farmer tie he is 13 as one of the men who will light tile the way tor for the american agriculturist to a future of great or er production and over reducing overhead tho the american farmer Is now passing through a barren and inhospitable waste so ai sort of death valley among ilia bis landmarks having been through such experiences before we may confidently fi count on coming through as we always have in tile the past but wo we are living in a a fools paradise it if by that token we hope to coma come out qt at the sok place we went in wo might as aa well admit once for all that the good old times of american agriculture the free and eay birned of chead land continually advancing in price are gone forever the change of base was inevitable henceforth instead of an agriculture with vi ofia on 0 bie oyo on tho increment in land value wo we must have it a tight and rational agriculture based upon sound agronomy and animal husbandry and a knowledge of the cost of tir ana or market conditions wo we must conduct ov our farming arming operations no BO that they 1 I yield profits on a farming basis kalher than ns ni a side line in a speculative deal in real estate this being the situation what of the outlook worst la Is past fast from tho the purely economic side tile the outlook Is dark enough though there Is reason to believe that the worst is now past the consuming public aas to have no conception of the plight in which the farmer has been loft left by the slump in farm prices all that hal the consumer knows Is that flint retail priced have not come down to anywhere near the pro war level and lie ho may assume that the farmer Is still getting high prices when as a n matter maite fot of tact fact he is getting botting smaller note net returns for his than lie ho got in 1913 and in dollars that will buy only about halt half as much per par dol laras would ills his 1913 dollars take a concrete example the J S B department of Argi culture has made an annual analysis of the business of ri representative farms in central ildea afi ild ta ba tor for the last eight years in 1913 tile the average not net income of these farms the return tor for both labor anti and capital was 1503 in 1920 the net income was only 1269 however this oft off does no not measure the actual decline in tho the farmers income for jn in 1820 1920 wholesale price p com tes pher farci foraged ve raged more than two and a halt half times as high as aa the corresponding in 1913 that is it took at least of this 1920 ia I dusome a ome to buy what a dollar would hyvo bought in ili 1913 consequently with a total smaller by over and a dollar shrunk to forty cents the average 1920 income of tho group of farms in ili question would lily buy not more thon than one third as lucli as would the averno average for 1813 1913 on this basis the tha situation looks something like this I 1 1913 farm income buying power 1920 farm itam lif tomo yang buying p power WIK ower alu since th mirent year thus thua far cor car M as ap more favorable to er tn an was 1920 we may t flight of these indiana dlana Iti barme a i r good idea of tile the PH tit borican farmer at abe e borno borne in mind ta in lat tho abo above corn parl karlsons sons ara drawn on oil tile basis of wholesale prices that tho the farmer custom orlly buys nt at retail and sells at wholesale and that retail prices aro are atilt relatively very much higher than wholesale prices it Is also Import important to note that though wholesale prices price S have fallen since 1920 tho the prices of farm product shavo fallen much farther athani thorsti of other commodities I 1 with these facts in view it is cloar clear that wo we have not shown tile the condition of these indiana farmers in its worst possible aspect some farmers have doubtless done better in fit the past year and a halt than have these men many especially lit in the south certainly have not done so BO well on oil tho the k think wo we may say that the tha above is a conservative statement ot of a re represent lve situation Is it possible to gloan glean any comfort from such a situation F roni from the he st economic standpoint point it akes very close study of tho the arico curbs curves anti and perhaps a bl bias is toward optimism t to 0 detect sigi signs 18 of improvement pro but it begins to look as though tile the farm price curve hn has dipped as low as it Is going on oil tills swing more optimistic there Is another point of oe view however from wit which II 11 ell tho the outlook Is more definitely encouraging if we turn tor for the time from froia the cold statistical viewpoint and consider the situation from that of human life on oil the farm lit in its relation to what we call economics we nye find that tile the situation holds holda promise strangely in ili contrast to the present unhappy conditions it may sound bound paradoxical to say that tho the economic crisis through which we are now passing promises lit in the long run to make for better farm homes and a higher standard of living on the farm hut but there is an all aspect tit in which our present loss seems to foreshadow decided gain in fit that ri rp we are all familiar with the farmer of that typo so common lit in the past shoso whoso only idea of efficiency is to rob tho the soil to the limit and whose only idea of a way to use profits in ia to invest them in more land and still moro more land strangely enough this courso course which would seem to load lead at to least at to financial pros prosperity serves to defeat its own end anti the continual effort to invest farm profits in ili moro more land tends to bid up the price of land beyond the level justified by return from tile the land ladd and thus to increase the cost of production by increasing the chargo charge for tho the uso use of land at the same time tile the effort to justify the investment tends to increase production Irro spec tivo ot 0 market demands thus we hava a vicious circle about which the farmer chases tile the willo will o th owl ewi of profit only to find that his effort has increased the price of land and lowered thy the price of tho the products of the land the day of this kind of farming is about over the farmer of the new day knows that such tactics aro are those of the doy chasing his tall tail that in ili effect they servo serve to put him in ili competition with himself and that they lead periodically to agricultural depression pres slon ile iio knows that farming la Is a fundamental industry indu etry that tho the laborer Is of ills his hire and that ito ho is entering upon an era am lit in which sound agronomy and sound business practices must prevail over the haphazard method of tile the soil exploits tion era of american agriculture knowing this lie ho will realize that tile the steady flow of profit necessary to tile tho successful prosecution of ills his businow and tho happiness of ills his family will depend on oil the way in which lie he gauges his fils production with reference to domail domand demand mail and on tho the eff elency with which lie he grows and m marketa hla products rather than on oil hla his skill br or luck in III handling real estate slump good from tills this viewpoint at least the agricultural slump is not an all unmixed evil since its tendency Is to shako shake out of the running ito ho type of farmer whose influence has tended to keep down thi prices ot of farm products and lower the standard of living on oil the farm to the progressive progress ife farmer who certainly has been hard lift hit by the slump ahls may seem poor consolation now but as the situation defolo pa ps likely that the advantages will swing awing moro more and more to lo ills his side tho the farmer I 1 lo 10 who is fitted to cope div alfi tile me now new situation is the farmer who la Is able to adjust himself promptly to tile tho new conditions and who sees that in the long run the cause of agriculture and of rural life in general la Is ser ved by maintaining or raising the stan stall dard of living on oil tile tho farm rather than by using all surplus profit to bid up the price of land whon thero there are moro more bidders than the profits of tho the soil will justify after all bolter better living ts is the truo true goal of tho tanning farming business thero there Is no ito moro biting commentary on siut ou modern modem life than that cynical aphorism to which it has given currency busi business nass is business that business should become its own synonym as some one has haa put it Is a shamo shameful ful thing anil and the farmer who thinks of tho the farming business as having no object beyond mere financial one success coss la IF in a fair way to miss phd lest best of life there is a great class of forward looking farmers in ili this thin country who know better than that we may rest as surett that these men in worl working ting out tile the vexing problems that tho the I 1 ayrl slump has hag spawned vil not bo be so fool fo all ab to forgot tha tile tho qi es t loa of thu ilisa financial lilt futini ini of american faiming Is inexpiably cahaly con led alth tho the question of at better I 1 ng in tho the farm homo home and the form 0 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