Show economic highfi highlights gats As we progreso pro gits i into summer bus seems mems to be taking inking it 11 steady if somewhat slow turn for the be better pur pot it a considerable windber of weeks it 11 well wall supported recovery movement lins has raised the industrial activity indexes A re representative index business ss weeks touched alic lie mark toward tb the end of tune june marking a 25 point over the same period a year before forecast is that the barometer will read reach and may puss tile the level during the summer all the forecasters apparently feel certain that improvement will wll continue into hito the fall nt at least As lias has happened hapli ettea lit in most of the previous upward movements the dominant part Is being p played by tiiu cons consumers milem goods I 1 industries the makers und and alst distributors r of those many articles IV which itch all of us buy amy use and we arout at regular intervals retail trade as Is to be expected Is doing nicely the capital goods industries on the other liand hand present a far le less optimistic ti picture residential a I 1 building ili Is keeping some of them going at fair levels now but ilten when fall and lid winter come there will almost certainly be a sharp letdown let down in building there la is comparatively little residential nonresidential non building side aside from 41 certain amount of government ark going on botho heavy goods industries on which thil bulk of employment and purchasing power tit in tills this country depe depends nils must exist bargl largely jy on the outlet for gooda offered byll by home iome construction and that Is not it a healthy state of affairs if for instance federal subsidization of homo hoino building were to he be stopped ped it could be expected that tile the severest sort of depression would instantly lilt hit jile the basic industries ihen tn lit the consumers consume is goods 8 field there are a number f inbi ous oils factors most important Is the fact that the relatively high level of consumer purchasing p power ow r is made possible to d a large ext extent ill liy ily federal spending the F federal cash deficit is now running about mont monthly fily the total deficit for the JWO 1939 fiscal year will bs be around exceeded only by the 1930 deficit of that brings with it the prospect of higher taxes and of now taxes ii illich alsa id a strong deterrent to capital dil investment vestment many it business has haa discovered that under conditions it Is possible to do more moie business and yet et earn less profit and when that la Is true it if becomes hard to coax dollars out of investors for potentially prodoc the live purposes another bad factor is the approach of next years general generale aleci led tion lion its an ail old tradition th that a t bus lue liu as y 91 alls Ls tight tigh t and pursues a policy of watchful walling waiting in a presidential election year that is likely to be doubly true in these times with ilie bitterest sort of battle ba leei conservative and liberal forc tones f within both parties pending so tile the outlook confused contused cont used there ara are so many changing file fac lois fors tobe to bb weighed that it 11 approaches ille height of folly to attempt to evaluate conditions a I 1 year or ivo h hence in ili the meantime you ean call he be reasonably cirtain certain that ahn t business will gradually get better during tit the text next few months rad and that lilt lie high reached tills this year will be at a least equal to that reached lust last the rhe staw of confusion existing among the experts over the burning que question atlon of will there be a I 1 war can call be judged toy by two artl clet appearing recently in leading serious magazines both articles c I 1 e s were ere written by men of reputation with a fair claim to being authorities on oil events abroad one was entitled there will be no war the other was waa entitled jilt ler must figlia one theory which is encouraging to tin the beleaguered beleaguer ed democracies of europe is that littler hitler cannot at af foul fora a war for the reason that it would bring with it an ail excellent chance of revolution at home boine and that hat hitler knows this ev even on as lie he and other nazi officials attempt to discredit it publicly certainly an ail excellent Xcell elit argument I 1 can be made in n I 1 of the theory the nazi regime tills has outlawed labor unions it at ilag hns fought the churches espic haliy tile the catholic it ling has imprisoned thousands of dissenters in fit concentration camps and executed many it lias has driven andt into ex exile 1 l le the lai persecuted secured jinai ji eai have families friends coni con in inot lot much Is heard from po possible Filble the troll iron icil of a tit the gestapo prey prevents hat lint lit it Is logical to believe that a proportion of the ger ger annn aa people hate lilt the regime regime in power and are waiting for the day hn it maybe destroyed in ili the countries which hitler liis has subjugated such tip as austria mid tile provinces condl conal eions are still worse from the IS nazi lazi point of view production in factories lias has slowed down a tremendously expensive policing job has become necessary and well supported accounts of sabotage a are current |