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Show f LAWSON'S NOTE OF ALARM. Tom Lawson is warning the world against American securities, says stocks are inflated far above their actual value, and that there must soon be an overwhelming crash. It is hard to quite understand Tom Lawson. No one doubts his ability, no one has any special faith in his integrity, in-tegrity, and when in the .name of the, public wel: j fare he attacks any combine, no one knows j whether he is working upon a great principle or whether behind his is merely a desire to work his own private revenges. As to a possible crash, that is not impossible, but is it probable? Most of the industrials are J paying fair dividends. The purely speculative stocks are limited in volume and' then this country coun-try is a billion and a half richer than it was only one year ago, a billion by the products of field and mine and half a billion through foreign trade, j In addition to the increase in moveable wealth, the securities behind it have increased in like I proportion. There is no default anywhere in : natural production, no real form of property is I shaky; interest is so low that men are seeking solid investments everywhere and there is no sign in earth or air that forbids another increase in the coming year as great as in the last. It is almost an absolute certainty that the mines of the west will in product next year, exceed that of this year by many millions, especially in Utah, Nevada Ne-vada and California, and the mines supply the vitalizing vi-talizing force to commerce and trade. In agriculture, Secretary Wilson shows in his last report that its profits could, in a brief time, ' buy and pay for all the railroads in the United States. When, did a disastrous panic ever come to a people when 35 per cent of the whole were agriculturists and all were prosperous? Mr. Law-son Law-son should particularize. He should name the inflated in-flated securities, and if he is right should explain that the test of values is the interest that can be paid on them. The steel trust is a mighty combine, but surely sure-ly it pays better interest than any national paper at home or abroad. The oil trust is another, but its profits, instead in-stead of being an anxiety,, are almost a menace. In almost every city in the country men have bought stocks on margins. Of course they are liable to Jose their margins any day, but if they should, there would be no loss of wealth; it would simply be another case'' of big "fish swalr lowing little ones. For instance, if Mr. Lawson was able to short the stock of some great mining corporation and throw the stock down 15 or 25 points, probably 1,000 investors would lose all they had put up on margins. But the real value of the property would not be lessened, and aftei a few days or weeks, when the stock from natural natu-ral causes rallied, the margins that the thousand investors lost would be in Mr. Lawson's vest pocket. As we look upon Mr. Lawson's note of alarm, it is quite possible that the thought behind it is that if enough interest can be awakened, the opportunity will come when a mighty bear movement move-ment will be possible, and so the prudent thing to do is for men to avoid buying on margins, for that is always a dangerous thing to do. Speaking of possible panics, there are such -guards against them as no country ever had be-, fore. The amount of money in the banks of the country is something almost incomprehensible; then the treasury of the United States groans under un-der its weight of treasure, and the stockings of the thrifty are all distended with money. It is in the interest of all these that there should be no panic. Of course none would get under speculative specula-tive stocks to hold them up, but they would all combine to save the great industries if they needed help. But they will not need help until the crops fail or the market for them fails, or the mines fail or the market for the baser metals fails, and this mighty volume of wealth steadily increases and the area over which men work, of both field and mine, is perpetually widening. A failure of crops may, of course, come at any time, but no failure is liable to extend over 2,500,000 square miles, and while the wheat or the corn or the cotton might on some year be a failure, it never yet has happened that they have all in the same year been failures. It looks to us as though the first note of depression de-pression to be feared will be when foreign market mar-ket for American manufactured goods begins to fall off. This ought to be about ten years hence, when manufacturing in the Orient begins to be felt by the generous nations, and it is strange to us that the far-seeing business men of this country coun-try are not already trying to get into closer relations re-lations with Spanish America, especially South America, by building roads and establishing stations sta-tions and' swifter means of communication with those states. It will soon be "the Orient for Orientals." We should begin to offset that by the other thought, "America for Americans-" There is room for many millions in those states, room and opportunity for immense trade and for the expansion of work. In the mean time, with the new year there will 2,000,000 more Americans want fields in which to work than there were last year, and 1,000,000 more who a year ago were beyond the sea, so the outlook is not very bad; indeed, there never was a sky so rosy with hope as is that above our country today. At peace with all the world, with the good will of all the world, with all the industries in harmony, with more than eighty million f people all speaking the same tongue, all singing the same songs, all inspired with the same hopes and all more generally gen-erally prosperous than any other people on car.th why should a raven croak of near disaster dis- turb the country? j Not that competition is not close, not that men should not be prudent, not that thrift and in- 'H dustry do not count for as much as ever. . iH What we mean is that there should be no lack .H of effort, for there arc new mines still to open, new fields yet to be subdued and cultivated', new enterprises yet to create, new industries yet to be pursued, but the work should go on with hope, and not in fear of some pending great disaster, , 'H for to us there is no sign of one in the air or on ' the earth. Rather, the poor of all the earth turn to ours as the promised land where industry is rewarded and where manhood is given full free-dom free-dom to expand and full appreciation on the part of a generous, .great people. |
