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Show HILLTOP TIMES TIMES New 448th SMCW director aims for forecast accuracy The 448th is addressing cost-effective readiness through several "targeted initiatives," including reduced over/ under forecasting, analysis of chronically low forecast accuracy items, review of low- and no-demand assets, and review of assets with estimated rates (improved forecasting tools). Small variances in a forecast can mean literally hundreds of millions of dollars in spare buys — the wrong spare parts, or too few or too many spares, Alsup pointed out. Sequestration is affecting the 448th SCMW's forecasts. The operating commands have scaled down their activities, "which means weapon systems aren't breaking or needing spares that we previously purchased at the rates we had planned for," he said. The drop-off "also has the potential to throw off our forecasts for future supply requirements." The 448th SCMW is responsible for the management of approximately 94,000 items, ranging from aircraft structural components such as BY MIKE W. RAY Tinker Public Affairs INKER AIR FORCE BASE, Okla. — The new director of the 448th Supply Chain Management Wing, Steven K. Alsup, is focused on achieving a 70 percent Demand Forecast Accuracy Rate, "which will be a worldclass benchmark when we hit it." Many major corporations "would love to even come close to 70 percent." From July 2012 until Alsup's installment March 8, Col. Tim Henke, vice director of the 448th, served as acting director of the wing. During that period, the wing's demand forecast accuracy rate doubled from 29 percent to 58 percent. Lt. Gen. Bruce Litchfield, commander of the Air Force Sustainment Center, challenged him to double that rate. "We're going to keep that as an 'art of the possible' goal that we set our sights on as we blow past the 70 percent initial target," Alsup said. The demand forecast accuracy rate entails "getting the right parts to the right people," and is a major contributor to cost-effective readiness. Alsup noted that Litchfield has said, "Our ability to provide cost-effective readiness will determine the size of our Air Force. The size of our Air Force will determine our ability to fight and win the next war." 3 wings and windshields, to blades and vanes that are components of engine core modules, Alsup said. Approximately 24,000 of those items are sustained by applying demand rates that are based on historical usage data and then applied to future programs to compute future requirements, he said. "These are the items we target for our Demand Forecast Accuracy improvement initiatives." Budget cutbacks also have resulted in travel restrictions, which "make it difficult for 448th SCMW personnel to meet with suppliers, customers and partners within the supply chain community." Planning in these "extremely uncertain budgetary times" is a challenge, Alsup said. As a career civil servant who started working for the Air Force in 1985, "I've seen budgets go up and come down, and I've seen government shutdowns, but I've never seen budgetary times quite like these." See 448th I BOOT AMERICA'S LARGEST WESTERN AND WORK STORE CIF page 5 " 174" 41 4 11. ' owe BOUTIQUE utsdag (*ale! 20% of ZOOS & lingerie logy FIR Expires 7/31/13 293 S. State Street, Clearfield Ut • 801-525-1583 blackvelvetboutique.com Locally Owned and Operated DELICIOUS FOOD GOOD VIk5ES LIVE MUSIC OVER 3,000 PAIRS OF BOOTS IN RIVERDALE of Commerce 16th ANNUAL $20 OFF $5 OFF REGULARLY PRICED ALL SHIRTS, JEANS & BOOTS OVER $100 ADULT STRAW HATS BUY 2 GET 1 EXTRA 25% — 7pM LAyroN COMMONS ?ARK N WASATCH DR. Tickets are $1 each or $10 for 12 Purchase tickets at the event, then redeem them at the restaurants of your choice. FREE ON SELECT OFF ALL CLEARANCE WRANGLER JEANS APPAREL VISIT US IN RIVERDALE: 5320 South Freeway Park Dr Special thanks to our sponsors: NEIGHBORHOODGROC 503-491-4825 Co me opo e60kj the .tostes ...over zo Favorite rest restclurgn-ts from DQvis Couthy one plqcei ♦Boston's Pizza f Brick Oven Pizza f Chick-fil-A f Costco f The Daily Rise ♦Dickey's BBQ Pit f Harmons f Holy Smoke BBQ f Johnny Rockets ♦Kneaders Bakery f Kona Ice f Lagoon f Legacy Village f McGrath's ♦Moon Dog's BBQ f Mejor Que Nada f ParkStone Wood Kitchen f Roosters ♦Settebello Pizzeria f Taste of India f Texas Roadhouse BOOT BARN IS A PROUD SPONSOR OF THE OGDEN PIONEER DAYS |