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Show THE OGDEN VALLEY NEWS Volume V, Issue IX Page 11 February 15, 2002 Utah Small Businesses Will Benefit From a Return to Positive U.S. Economic Growth We expect the current U.S. recession—which formally began in March 2001—to end during 2002’s first half. We project 2002’s first quarter to record a 0.5% rise in GDP (after inflation, annual basis), with a more substantial 2.5% rise in second quarter growth. We project growth in 2002’s second half to exceed a 3.0% real annual rate. Our view is consistent with that of the Blue Chip Financial Forecasts panel of roughly 50 U.S. economists. The consensual view has first quarter growth at 0.4%, followed by 2.6% second quarter growth. The current U.S. recession is expected to last roughly 12 months, in line with the 11-month average of the ten prior recessions in the post-war period. By comparison, the prior recession of July 1990 to March 1991 lasted eight months. Stronger U.S. economic performance would soon lead to better performance in Utah. The state’s businesses would benefit from increased levels of U.S. manufacturing output, tourism, and enhanced overall business activity. Consumer spending, which represents two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, has remained stronger than typically found during periods of recession. Progress in the global fight against terrorism has been successful—to date—raising confidence levels. In addition, the impact of eleven interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve during 2001, pushing the Fed’s key shortterm rate to 1.75%, the lowest in 40 years, will also stimulate the economy this year. The chances of a 12th and final rate cut by the Fed on January 30, 2002 are about two in five. In Utah The Utah unemployment rate—the most heavily weighted component of the Zions Bank Small Business Index for Utah—jumped to 5.2% in December 2001, up sharply from November’s 4.4% rate. The current 5.2% rate is the highest since April 1992, and compares to a jobless rate of 3.2% during December 2000. A higher Utah unemployment rate is a positive contributor to the Index, as it implies increased access to Utah labor. Utah’s unemployment rate averaged 3.2% during 2000, one of the lowest annual rates since the early 1950s. This 3.2% level compares to average Utah unemployment rates of 3.7% during 1999, 3.8% in 1998, and 3.1% during 1997. Utah’s unemployment rate has been one of the nation’s lowest in recent years, averaging 3.5% during the 1994 - 2000 period. As a result, Utah’s small businesses have found it increasingly difficult to attract and retain employees. Tight labor markets have also been a serious concern in the neighboring states of Arizona, Colorado, Idaho, and Nevada, as well as throughout the Midwest and the Great Lakes states. The latest 12-month rise in Utah employment of 3,900 jobs (up 0.4%) compares to the 7,500 jobs created in the prior year-over-year period. These totals compare to gains averaging 38,300 new jobs annually during the 1994-2000 period. Slowing job growth, leading to lesser income creation and weaker retail spending, has a negative impact upon Utah’s small businesses . . . and therefore, the Index. The Zions Bank Small Business Index for Utah rose to 90.3 during December 2001 from a revised 86.5 during November 2001. The Index measures business conditions from the viewpoint of the Utah small business owner or manager. A higher Index number is associated with more favorable business “conditions” for Utah’s small businesses. The Index uses 100.0 for calendar year 1997 as its base year. The Index also includes revisions to various historical or forecast components. The Nation The nation’s unemployment rate rose to 5.8% in December, up from November’s revised 5.6% rate, formerly reported at 5.7%. December’s 5.8% rate is the highest since April 1995. We expect the U.S. unemployment rate to approach 6.0-6.2% in coming months. Total U.S. employment declined by 124,000 jobs in December, in line with expectations. November’s previously reported loss of 331,000 jobs was revised to a loss of 371,000. When excluding the 91,000 rise in government employment during 2001’s fourth quarter, total private sector payrolls fell by more than one million jobs during the quarter, the worst quarterly performance since 1980. On a positive note, total hours worked in December were unchanged, the first month since May when hours worked didn’t decline. Goods-producing employment fell by 133,000 in December, led by the loss of another 133,000 manufacturing jobs. Manufacturing, the weakest sector of the U.S. economy, has seen total employment drop by more than 1.3 million jobs during the past 12 months. Service-providing employment rose by 9,000 jobs in December, after plunging by more than 500,000 jobs in the two prior months. The January 2002 Zions Bank Small Business Index for Utah will be released on February 5, 2002. Jeff Thredgold Thredgold Economic Associates Economic Consultant to Zions Bank (801) 533-9663 ©Copyright 2001 Thredgold Economic Associates MASSAGE THERAPY Swedish Deep Tissue Sports Injury Trigger Point Richard Smyka Licensed Massage Therapist 745-0108 Conveniently Located at Harper Rocky Mountain Chiropractic (Next to Valley Market) Call for appointment. Out-call available. Jazz Excuses By Jen Beasley Student Reporter The Utah Jazz locker room is beginning to boil, and the effect on their record has the team in hot water. According to various rumors, reports, and things that happen on the court, a small uprising against Coach Jerry Sloan is developing among the younger Jazz players. The mutiny seems to have been born of frustration with the disciplined plays, a shortage of playing time, and as is usually the case in professional sports—individual personality conflicts (AKA: Why blame yourself when you can blame the coach?). When Bryon Russell went on his 7-45 shooting slump over the course of five games, the poor field goal percentage seemed to become contagious. This led to trade rumors and more important—losses—and that started the ball rolling on the locker room complaining: DeShawn Stevenson began griping about the officiating. If he wasn’t making shots, it couldn’t be his fault! Quincy Lewis felt he wasn’t being given a chance to prove himself on the court. More playing time please! And Greg Ostertag’s complaints are the most obvious, and yet, the most obscure. In a February 5 game versus Memphis, Ostertag committed a silly foul and was sent to the bench. An argument between Ostertag and Sloan followed, and the big fella concluded his evening in the locker room after intentionally ramming into his coach. When asked what the confrontation was all about, Tag said only, “You’re not going to get an answer from me.” Add to that animosity pot the injuries of John Crotty and Donyell Marshall, or the Olympic eviction from the Delta Center that has the Jazz on a month-long, nine-game road trip, or persistent trade rumors surrounding Russell, Marshall, and Ostertag, and you have a team guzzling a bitter brew. It’s not surprising that the youngsters are losing their cool. On a basketball team, the young guys are the indicator species, so when something goes wrong, they are the most adversely affected. Which forces the veterans to try to keep it together. Not that the old timers aren’t frustrated. Karl Malone openly admitted his concerns in a discussion about Utah’s mediocre season. But he’s staying optimistic about how he can contribute to the team. “I would like to be a captain, to patch it up and keep it afloat, rather than jump ship.” Refreshing sentiment from a power forward surrounded by ref-bashing, time-hungry, coach-bumping, self-oriented teammates. Why can’t these young guys get a taste of what the Mailman is cookin’? Jazz Notes Karl Malone passed the 34,000point mark in a 90-78 win over Chicago on January 30. The Mailman is second all time in the NBA in scoring, behind Kareem Abdul-Jabbar. Point guard Rusty LaRue was signed to a ten-day contract to fill the hole in the roster left by the injured John Crotty. To help with Utah’s 23rd-in-the-league three-point percentage, expert marksman Jeff Hornacek was added to the payroll as a Jazz shooting coach. |