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Show The Enterprise Review , July 7,1 976 Page and utilities projects have gone up 12.7. Only projects are lagging and they are off 26.4. When the figures for additions, alterations and repairs are added, total permit construction is up 33.2. The dollar volume is estimated at $130 million. The number of new dwelling units has increased 36.4 over last year. In real estate in Salt Lake City the number of transactions have increased 11 while the dollar value has non-residenti- Investment Summary Chuck Akerlow Utah business appears to be steadily improving. The up latest report from the University of Utahs Bureau of Economic and Business Research compares the first three months of 1976 with the first quarter of 1975. State tax collections are bank debits have increased by 13; and farm marketings have gone up a increase in construction. Total slight Of particular interest to new construction is up 17.8. those of us in real estate In this figure new residential investment is the dramatic is up 55.3 and public works 22; 2.5. gone up The unemployment rate Mj LORP, 42. al has gone down and employment, particularly in contract construction, services and trade has gone up significantly. m I HMkW me a tixmeim IfO V caoesm-- t OF HP aoHecP-- fAWBERS, tSn Am AMP r GOT A tOOClSfH ADMIRAL A01.' 00 IT l STILL ROOM protus TH5 COUP 6NH06 ' MB OR 606PSL-Oi- o YOU HB TH5 caounou HAY I me to me OR OIH6R mc. ?tyr. 06- - fORf rue pgMociavne ver&ose. W piefcentee YOPRSWWRT KMOjOU LORD. WORD flams neuf uujbaofr 9n&cKK,rrre. Pragmatic Dogmatics To Canvass, To Sample, and Caveat Emptore by Kent Shearer polls are somewhat akin to nuclear energy: . useful if analyzed and applied by those khowledgeful in the art, but Political if gathered and made public by persons amateur, partisan or both. Jo understand those products known collectively as polls, two definitions are essential. First, a canvass is a survey of the greatest possible membership of a limited electorate. For instance, a party canvass of a voting contact of every district involves a residence in the district to determine political g canvass is preference. A church structured to raise pledges from as many parish members as possible. Second, a sample purports only to be a contact of a representative segment of a much broader electorate. In age, sex, race, creed, age, educational achievement, party preference, and income, the part constitutes a mirror of the whole. The composition to achieve that In a mirror is professionally structured. rather than a variant, key voting districts demographic profile - are tabulated. Special attention must be paid data from which conclusions are drawn in either type of poll. Obviously, a ten percent canvass is less effective than one of the very few that registers a one hundred percent effective rate. Likewise, reliable samples must reflect demographics or keys established by evidence counter-productiv- e door-to-do- or fund-raisin- extrinsic to the sample itself. A further caution is in order. Either a thorough canvass or adependablersampleisiony evidence of public opinion during the period (in itself, a series of instances) in which it is obtained. Thus far. Ive addressed myself to the subject of those contacted. What about the structure of questions asked by those who conduct either canvass or survey? Were the question Do you believe Lloyd, during his term, served Utah diliimmediately to precede the followgently? up, Who do you favor for the GOP Senatorial nomination?, the clear yes to the former would influence, likely decisively, the latter. The obverse of that sweetheart is a loaded inquiry in the nature of Can you possibly support a Nixon appointee, such as Sherman P. Lloyd, to carry the Republican banner this year? At this juncture, I suggest that you review all that has appeared before. What is a canvass? What is a sample? What statistical support should either have to be reliable? During what point in, or periods of, time was either conducted? What did either ask, and in what order? In this mix, difficult enough alone, place the spook of candidate poll sponsorship. Will an accurate pollster report other than the best possible news to the candidate who lines his rat m our with The auecnoto LORD. kppr most interesting statistic is the dramatic increase in new car and truck sales. The number of units sold has increased 56.5 over last year. Normally the first quarter of any year is slow. It will be interesting to see the figures for the first six months when they become available. My guess is that you will see great improvement over 1975. cone ABOARD n as oue $ the Probably iPOOwaut TO jiuW-y-; lib pocket? Will a candidate who sponsors a survey release unfavorable results to the media? The best known pollster, George Gallup, couldnt completely explain poll techniques in a volume. You will therefore excuse me if, after your eyes have endured the foregoing, you believe yourself inadequately instructed. You should be sufficiently taught, however, to know to be very suspicious indeed of full-leng- th polls of Republican (Stae Convention dele- gates released recently by State Senator Dixie Leavitt, candidate for Governor, which show him within shouting distance of the favorite, Attorney General Vernon B. Romney. The Leavitt poll, from a group best surveyed through a canvass , was instead a sample. It was bought and paid for by Leavitt, together with other GOP aspirants who were seeking available offices. No data has been released to, e or demanded by, the media which tend to honor anything the wire services spew forth. The professionalism of the pollsters - USU intermural amateurs - is most suspect. The demography of the canvass or sample is not reported. Nor are key districts ox-lik- -- so-call- ed involved. In short, too many polls, commissioned to create bandwagon effects, are misleading, at best. The buyer should beware!!! |