Show - '' ' : : t '" :1' "'r"!4 V - : j A' wie rave rr1 !1'!'i"1 ' ' - 7" 7' vaS stkPA (11414 44'7vr"'?!v 74 'C74::7 - r: k - 4 - '1- e'01:71! : '' :11 :51 :41tir'Ir " t :) :C Att-- ' t 414 - e r '': it jJnlct gifibune Tthe ' '''-"--::: ' " : ' ' :: :: ' :: ': - Section Page 10 A lk god VP Full Nicaraguan Vote Success Depends on Future US Aid ' When all the euphoric commentary on Nicaragua's surprise election results finally recedes that unfortunate Central American country will still confront an enormous reconstruction task And the United States cannot duck its responsibility for providing essential assistance Statements happily made by President George Bush and Secretary of State James Baker III Senate Minority Leader Robert Dole and various other Republican and Democratic congressmen clearly reflect US satisfaction with Violeta Barrios de Chamorro's upset defeat of Sandinista President Daniel Ortega Saavedra Next they and their colleagues must match their laudation with money Lots of it The National Unity Organization (UNO) led by Senora Chamorro's successful presidential candidacy is inheriting a national economy in calamitous disarray and consequently a voting public expecting material improvement if not immediately at least within the foreseeable future It's a future desperately troubled by a dismal present In the 10 years since the Sandinista revolution ousted dictator Anastasio Somoza Debayle in tailed an inept bureaucracy which was then compelled to fight a war funded by the United States Nicaragua has suffered progressive tragic decline The Sandinista ballot box defeat can be traced to a national inflation rate of about 1700 percent unemployment in the 20 percent range shortages of everything from medicine to toilet paper rising emigration falling agricultural production and a real per capita iiicome no greater than one found in Nimagua during the 1950s Clearly Nicaraguans in the thousands voted for a change anything that might turn the situation counter-revolutionar- y around Reformation however is a gargan- tuan task Some analysts contend for example restoring per capita income to a point reached at the time of the 1979 Sandinista emergence will require 20 years of continued uninterrupted economic growth Only one source can help make that likely — The United Stites of America Moreover Senora Chamorro need not be bashful in enterprising such aid The Sandinistas becoming the political opposition can be held at bay only as long as Senora Chamorro and the UNO factions effectively preserving their coalition can obtain financing they need to redeem campaign promises If the US demobilizes and scatters forces the the UNO promise to end Nicaragua's military draft and send former soldiers home to farm and man factories can be fulfilled If the US quickly lifts the Reagan administration's trade embargo on Nicaragua export income can flow in greater volume If Nicaragua can obtain petr91eum and other industrialization supplies on minimum credit terms it can T abuild its infrastructure and restore productive capacities Not instantly but measurably Since the US helped shatter Nicaragua's economy with funding of the Contra war it is obliged to finance meaningful restoration Because doing so is the best protection against Senora Chamorro failing she is fully entitled to both request and expect ample US underwriting Her task is heavier than that A coalition of 14 political parties UNO has shown it can win an election but can it govern? Senora Chamorro for that matter claims membership in no particular party but she must now somehow keep a government together long enough to prove itself the effective alternative to a Sandinista comeback Her troubles can arise as potentially in the coalition as they certainly will from the brooding Sandinistas Her political strength will derive from the gains and improvements her government can claim for Nicaraguans generally That means total end to the war with Contras who never did join the election process as well as substantial economic assistance from others principally the United States Democracy and Latin American style made impressive strides with the Nicaraguan election But as with so many of that region's popularly elected governments the Chamorro administration is in an extremely fragile condition vulnerable until it actually solves those economic complaints on which it deliberately rode impressively to power counter-revolutionar- y Cries for Democracy The Soviet Union in 1990 is beginning to look a lot like Eastern Europe in 1989 The popular will for democracy is threatening to outrun the Corn nunist Party's efforts at reform Saturday's election completed the process in Lithuania A nationalist coalition is in the communists loyal to Moscow are out How the new government will handle the tricky and dangerous business of secession from the Soviet Union and establishment of an independent sovereign state is anyone's guess but there's no doubt that's where things are headed Sunday's nationwide demonstrations in the Soviet Union were as direct a challenge to communist power as the election in Lithuan'a The protests v'ere called by a coalLion of opposition groups and their success in the face of official intimidation indicates that groups other than th Communist Party can muster popular support across the face of the vast Soviet empire The rallies were called to support opposition candidates in electiot s next Sunday in the three largest Soviet republics: Russia the Ukraine and Byelorussia These candidates are fighting an uphill battle against the machine politics and news blackouts of the Communist Party protesters' second purpose was demand Eastern European-stylround table talks on a transfer of power from the Kremlin to the opposition The protests succeeded despite widespread official use of scare tactics to discourage participation Large crowds assembled in Moscow and Minsk and in other Soviet cities from the Pacific coast of Siberia to Soviet central Asia to Georgia in the Caucasus Reports varied from 20 to 30 as to the number of cities involved While the similarities to recent events in Eastern Europe are striking the Soviet situation is somewhat different The geography involved is vast which complicates political organizing and the Soviet federation is torn by nationalist and ethnic conflicts and aspirations that muddy the political situation enormously However the common thread with Eastern Europe is the universal resentment of the Communist Party and its monopoly rule That feeling is growing as the Soviet economy continues to deteriorate rapidly despite Mikhail Gorbachev's reforms The world has heard chants for democracy before shouted in the streets of Warsaw Budapest Prague Leipzig and Bucharest Now those sounds have arrived in Moscow and Leningrad The to e Another Viewpoint Deficit Not SS Is Major Problem From Newsday I 1 c i 11 President Bush has a plan to keep the ravenous Treasury from nibbling away at the Social Security trust fund but it has a major flaw: It won't even start to go into effPct until 1993 That leaves too much time for politicians to water it down or abandon the whole project Washington must come up with a more certain way to protect Social Security and face up to budget shortcomings The Social Security trust fund is i'unning growing surpluses each year to build a reserve to help pay benefits when the big Baby Bcorn generation retires next century But right now the Treasury borrows that surplus — which obscures the true size of the federal deficit — and pledges to repay it later Bad deal Federal deficits hurt the economy by absorbing savings the economy needs the regressive Social Security tax is the wrong way to fill the gap and the huge debt the Treasury is accumulating to Social Security will be difficult to pay back Last month Sen Daniel Patrick Monynihan offeicd a remedy: Ile wanes to cut the Social Security tax With less surplus there's less for the Treasury to borrow A gOod idea — if (Ingress raises income taxes to replace that borrowing But neither Bush nor Congress will go for a tax hike Without one Moynihan's plan would hurt the US economy — by hiking the deficit — not help it Budget Director Richard Darman offered MIMI'S plan this month Its pretty good: Instead of lending Social Security's excess funds to the Treasury to offset this year's deficit Bush would use them to cut the accumulated federal debt The true deficit would stand out starkly and presumably be trimmed by reducing overall US tscletotedness the plan would free up money for productive investment That would spur growth making it easier to repay Social Security next century Trouble is since Bush won't use new taxes the true deficit would stand out so starkly that he doesn't dare try his plan now Instead he would wait while the nation somehow grows in three years by optimisout of its deficits tic Bush calculations That is too long The real problem here isn't Social Security its the federal deficit Nobody wants to pay more taxes or cut various good programs But without doing some of both that real problem can't bo solved law' it 1 Pi 4 IC Pc-U-A i i::::' ' ' ii ''''"':''':'' ' ez14 I iT ‘ I ° ii 1111111111E '' PC) 14L 14 1 " - ill --- -- ----- - : 40 E ''SNtAVA ' i:i1111111 °le ‘11111 4Il 4110:0103' 1114 --- 2 itt0 a Ill I t Ill'v ---- - :: st1114114 g? R)U - ' AVC-01-1 4 AN e 0111PU LOCGDI 6 D ' de kf t ip:ii o vtu VOST - 041 ' Ifrg )s i (CrV 111 Alllit ' tql?W—A il:7 - t IV N "" :::z:!:1:-::!14 ': - ‘ - 014 -- tr :::i'i'::: —717) giTill ::":: fil GM- 0 i Tuesday February 27 1990 kk fl: —40-1t- w k LTA's ::---- : 0 1 - v ' '''''' -- Despite Its Price Cold War Was Necessary PARIS — Unraveling the Cold War is causing enormous concern and unease The big headaches confronting Europe would have been settled long ago if World War II hopes had been fulfilled for maintaining at t least friendly relations if not an actual allianc e There's no counting the number of lives lost and ruined because of the Cold War — in wars such as Korea Vietnam Cambodia Afghanistan in repression in suspicion that led to persecution in the West as well as the East There's no counting the amount of resources wasted on huge armies and devastating weapons If hopes are fulfilled for an end to the conflict of the last four global decades future generations will wonder what drove their forefathers to such madness Did they really mean to nuclearize each other out of existence? Did each side really imagine it had the ultimate answer to the good society and could only survive by doing in its " s East-Wes- power-ideolog- y rival? Communism is an ideology a system that claimed with "scientific certainty" that it knew how to resolve all social problems and that it had a monopoly on historical foresight Capitalism was never more than a method for bringing together what it takes to produce — labor tools management — with no pretense that constant adjustment of the social machinery would not be necessary The dispute wasn't between two creeds but between the messianic and the practical view of making things work Now Mikhail Gorbachev and his foreign Jerry Brown In '92? It's Possible Lippman Jr Baltimore Sun Without a substantial advantage among Roman Catholic voters Democrats can't win the presidency Republicans have denied them that advantage lately It may be that only a Catholic Democratic candidate can bring the flock back into the fold In a recent column I named some all with liabilities One was Sen Ted Kennedy He could do well if California moves its presidential primary from June to early March in 1992 Such a contest would be an expensive proposition The state is so big Kennedy can raise money and he could also run there with less expenditure of money than any other candidate on the national scene iles well known has star quality and is as liberal as they come He is one of a very few Democrats who could afford a California campaign and have money in the bank for the next big states But he's from the Northeast! That brand of liberalism is not acceptable in the nation You have to do well in the South and West to get elected Teddy could easily win the nomination but not the White House Is there no Southern liberal Catholic? None that you've ever heard of How about a Western one? Yes Does the name Jerry Brown ring a familiar bell? It should Maryland voted for him in the 1976 presidential r Like his father primary Ile's a before him Brown was elected governor of California twice Ile beat Jimmy Carter in several presidential primaries Now he chairs the California Democratic Party It will endorse in the 1992 presidential primary Ile is said to be considering a favorite son campaign as a prelude to a national campaign If there is an early primary he might win with almost no expenditure — and by so doing raise so much money to run elsewhere that the Democratic race would be no contest I'm not sure that will happen but I am sure California politicians will benefit nationally if the state moves its primary It has always been a major player in national politics In eight of the last 11 presidential elections there was a Californian on the Republican ticket (It won six of the eight Are you paying attention Democrats?) An early primary a head start in there would give both parties Would a Jerry Brown be more acceptable than a Kennedy or a Mario Cuomo in the South and West in November? Perhaps Ile's more liberal in some ways and he's more Out of the mainstream as conventionally defined But he is from the Sun Belt which is constantly redefining the mainstream Don't be surprised if you see a Brown on the Democratic ticket in 1992 or 1996 Of course it may not be Jerry It may be Kathleen She's his sister She's expected to be elected state treasurer this year She is already being praised for combining her brother's fabled visionary intellect with her father's storied political charm That may be just nit combination to lead the Democrats into the 21st century By Theo vote-gette- home-stater- s 1 Flora Lewis v4t 4 minister Eduard Shevardnadze tell the world there is no difference in basic values In that case what was the fight about? In Ottawa a week ago Shevardnadze did admit that "our country took too much time grappling with the dilemma" of truth versus happiness whether to prefer the anxiety of someone who knows the truth or the tranquillity of those who ignore it" And to prove the right choice had been made at last he said candidly "Today our country is indeed sick" But having recognized "universal human values and the dignity of the individual" having "renounced force as an instrument for solving any domestic or foreign problems" seeking friends not enemies be pronounced "Such a state has to survive" We shall become not only a big and strong country but a genuinely comfortable and civilized home for women and men" he said Whether or not the Muscovite prediction comes closer to the target this time than when Stalin proclaimed the "inevitable" victory of communism or when Khrushchev told the West "We will bury you" Shevardnadze's forecast had a different tone So the answer probably has to be that the Cold War was unfortunately necessary There were absurd excesses of course in the witch hunts the secrecy the military extravagance of the American response It is strange now to recall what panic what lack of confidence drove the democracies to feel they were in danger of being over whelmed by Communist ideas not only by Red armies There was an unacknowledged link between the Victorian idea of inevitable progress the promise of the Industrial Revolution and the Marxist idea of inevitable collapse the demons of the Industrial Revolution devouring themselves It stoked fears that the ideologists had a better crystal ball or a master plan that might be irresistible and therefore had to be resisted at any cost President Kennedy pledged we would "pay any price" to preserve our own vision We may have paid more than required But it is questionable that the understanding awakening in the world that there will alwm be problems that utopias are mythical would have been achieved without the demonstrition that the Cold War provoked There is a more skeptical idea of progress now a realization that there will always be trade-off- s that bring pain as well as benefit The key lesson is not that righteousness will triumph — both sides wallowed in righ teousness — but that there is need for a certain humility in establishing man's place Perfect systems bring perfect disaster Leaving room for error and admitting error in ways that encourage correction offer a bet ter chance That is the great strength of democracy which isn't an ideology either but a way of enabling people to settle quarrels by argument instead of force There is still a yearning for a grand design a guaranteed formula to discern and deflect the tide of history It is a romantic notion and while romantic ideals have their role as inspiration they are the source of catastrophe when they are imposed by dreamers who arquire might iliasion it was worth it Now for getting on with everyday repairs which make all the It's So Joe! Greed Banishes Game to Field of Your Dreams Yes New York Times Service little boy Joe had tears in his eyes when he heard baseball's spring-trainincamps wouldn't open on schedule "Say it ain't so Dad" he sobbed "What kind of people would ruin spring for all Americans?" "Joe" I said "Dad knows all writers nowadays are supposed to love baseball more than they love Henry James and know more baseball than Casey Stengel but the truth is son Dad isn't one of the really big writers" Who's Casey Stengel?" asked Joe "That's what I mean son I don't know who Casey Stengel is All I know is the really big writers always write about him with great delicacy and sensibility" "You mean they write true and well as the great Hemingway wrote of the bulls" suggested little Joe "Right" I said "But your Dad would never dare get into the ring with the likes of Mr Hemingway much less the likes of Mr David Broder and Mr George Will when their quills are dilating on the existential art of the Chicago Cubs" Then the tears welled up again in little Joe's eyes "Say it ain't so Dad" he said Making a mental note to have his pediatrician check the boy's tear glands I gave it to him straight from the shoulder "I couldn't even get a tryout in spring My g baseball-writin- I g camp" told him of once mentioning Babe Ruth in a travel article ("Baltimore's Darkest Secrets") and being officially warned to stop writing baseball until I got a license from a committee comprised of David Halberstam Roger Angell and the late Bernard Malamud After examining my prose the committee said it would license me only to write sandlot softball "Couldn't you have written about something unusual like the bulls?" "Mr Hemingway already had the bulls sewed up Joe The only thing not taken was water skiing" Knowing how his Dad hated all water sports little Joe wept copiously sobbing "Say it ain't so Dad" There was only one way to turn him off "Joe" I said "your Dad happens to know the owner of a major-leagubaseball team How would you like to ask him yourself about why there's no spring training?" Little Joe's eyes became misty "That I might have got a bad break having a Dad who can't write baseball I won't deny" he said "But learning that I've got a Dad who knows a major-leaguteam owner makes me feel I'm the luckiest guy in the world" The owner said sure come on Over he loved kids as long as they didn't mind seeing grown men cry "Say it ain't so sir" said little Joe 'hen we arrived to find the owner lo tears e e ' Russell Baker "Yes son it's so" he sobbed "You see before you a wretched baseball owner a 'BO' as he is called by those who unjustly despise him "Do you know the pain I feel lad when they traduce me drag my name through the muck after all I've done for the national pastime?" Little Joe and I embraced him to show there were people who loved him no matter what the players called him Yes he had locked down his camp but only for the good of the game and American youths who would be utterly corrupted by ab surdly high baseball salaries Yet the players showed no appreciation "The ingrates!" I cried "Nay nay friend" said the owner "Do not speak harshly of the young men's loathsome greed They are too innocent to realize that their excessive pay corrupts the youths of the entire nation" "No kidding?" asked little Joe "You for instance Joe" said the owner "Would it not fill your boyish heart with evil envy and rage to know that while a few young men can earn $6000 an hour to sun theniselves your pay is a measly $375 for flipping hamburgers?" "Say it ain't so BO" sobbed little Joe "Yes Joe" said the owner "We have a duty to America's youngsters to bring baseball back to the good old days when the owners knew what was good for American youths and could make the players spring-trainin- do g it" In the good old days I told Joe players took what owners offered them That was be cause in the good old days the players were owned like slaves with legal approval "Not like slaves!" cried the owner "No wonder you can't get licensed to write baseball If players didn't want what we offered they didn't have to work for us They could pump gas' "But owners are due to get billions from putting on games for television to broadcast" said little Joe "Unless you corrupt American youngsters by paying the players more money I don't see how the owners can collect their TV billions" "Say it ain't so Joe" said the owner ing tears from every duct pour- I |