Show nn WIlY WHY OPTIMISM I The he following are extracts from froni troman an address by Geo Otis Smith Director United States Geological Survey American Mining Congress December 8 8 Pheonix Arizona Europe's war finds Its Us echo in Americas America's Industry What contrast could be greater on the one shore of ot the Atlantic all activity seemingly destructive e in purpose on the other shore every energy along constructive lines absolute waste of life and property a as Ol opposed to lo prou pro- pro u oi Ui anu and betterment of or life lIre Even en though It Is at a distance that we view the Iho terrible e disaster that threatens the whole continent of Europe optimism seems a lots art I Yet sooner or later this of catastrophe catastrophe catastrophe cata cata- strophe must be followed by a period of ot repair and the longer this period Is delayed the greater will be he the needs Involved In the reconstruction and replacement Where war var has torn lorn down clown at al terrific speed peace must build up lowly slowly The Interruption of International trade stopped ou our exports of ot cotton collon and ind copper and our Imports of f dye dye- stuffs and potash whereby several hid Industries were Yet startlIng as has been I this his of the Iho whole balance balance I of oC industry certain fundamental facts and laws remain for us to lo build upon and indeed the Iho lower louver course of ot foundation stones for Cor optimism has already been laid Evidence of or business betterment is s before us on every every- hand and the reasons for tor optimism are many The United States Stales farmer has harvested a five m in dollar crop and there is 1 5 high market for Cor all our sur- sur 1 pins lus 1118 food stuffs already our grain grai is i pouring curing across the Alantic The millions of men who are fighting are no nol oi working and yet these hordes of t s In must clothed and I Del d as well vell as fed orders j have lave ave started factory operations which s st it t once tends to relieve the j t lOt or In the steam-coal steam trade the Iho steel E s has turned front from serious tic tic- v to rapid Improvement and t tho n ho he 10 whole mineral Industry may soon t to lo share In this general busl- busl c ness ess Improvement Today the financial horizon is so nearly early cloudless that the prophets of had bad ad weather have little upon which to o base their predictions The new now federal banking system makes the tho money aloney money reserves mobile as never before and extension of credit Is Isnow Isow isnow now ow possible without the tile veto yeto power remaining in the hands of a small group roup of big men Still another reason eason for belief in business betterment betterment better- better ment en t is the recognition now becomIng becom- becom lug Ing ng widespread of ot the general Interdependence interdependence Inter- Inter dependence of ot big business a and d the general public On the one side the eople are realizing that the they are and have lave been In reality the silent partner In n tug Dig business and anu now that mat there inere I has come the promise of some som regulation regulation regu regu- lation tiOn that will In tn large part prevent monopolistic centralization the people peo peo- pie aro Iro interested in getting gelling their share or returns that can come only with operation at a profit On the theother theother other hand the managers of t the le large corporations the trustees of the investing public are beginning to see that a certain financial security goes with public confidence and that the attitude to the Iho public lUbliC so tersely expressed expressed ex ex- pressed 30 years ago by a pioneer In railroad financing does not 11 pay 1 dividends divi today Of course coure optimism is apt to go to extremes Already we are arc hearing such nc as heem M nr or opportunity unparalleled In history and avalanche of prosperity and andev ev even n hardheaded business men arc are quoted as thus characterizing the present situation All Alt this kind of tall talk Indicates that thai a period d of ov r- r may thre ten us a condition condition con- con dilion that Is somewhat symptomatic of the A American temperament The four months' months record however can be summarized thus While European o countries have o been mobilizing mobilising theIr armies and calling to lo the flu fluid floW of ot battIe bat bat- tIe lle Ule their t reserves of soldiers A America Amen Ameri meriea ca ea has its credits and anel begun begun begun be be- gun gun to send forward to the Iho market marketplace marketplace place Its vast reserves of ot stuffs food and mineral products Secretary Redfield recognizes three periods of ot business conditions as naturally following the tho declaration of war on August 1 last last those of shock stimulation and readjustment These three must be expected to affect af at- at- at feet in the tho same Bame order all branches of American business though the Iho transition from one period to th the tho next may may not be simultaneous 8 In In n all 1111 J JI I I I branches Thus Thins for several so weeks after war was declared the exportation exportation tion of wheat felt folt the shock and thousands of carloads accumulated at Eastern ports With cotton cotlon the Iho period of or shock has been longer but bul stimulation elimination of or export has now begun With copper copler the resumption of sales to Europe seems slow in coming but como It must for Cor in the modern world whether at al war or at peace the tho red metal Is a necessary of or life lIfo As A's wo we look t toward ward the Iho south AVO wo find that our commerce with South Soul America for Jor the last Insl four years ha has been sided one-sided to lo tho Iho extent of an unfavorable unfavorable un un- f favorable annual trade balance averaging averaging averaging aver aver- aging more moro than SO 80 millions o of d dollars ollars The Tho that the the balance balanco o of t trade rade Is against the United States i in t two wo of the tho three A B C countries hould should be bo taken only as an invitation 1 lo 0 o export moro more and that SO millions million suggested the chance for Cor further do do- of trade relations W We Ve need Iced eed meat and hides from Argentina tin in ore from Bolivia rubber anc and c coffee offee from Brazil and nitrate from Chile platinum from Columbia cacao from Ecuador woo wool from Peru and Uruguay Wh What t can we wo export in exchange To increase industrial prosperity this country needs to export finished rather than crude products and to Import import Im- Im im- im port raw materials rather than manufactures Betterment of In Industrial Industrial In- In conditions can cnn come como best bes through expansion of Ing The Increase of the clement element o of labor In tho the product exported will wll mean that thai we are not bartering away our heritage of natural resources bu but rather that we are using these resources resources ces cea as a basis simp simply for the expenditure expendi- expendi ture lure of labor which renews itself Coming down to lo bottom bollom facts the United S States aies will by the European war only as the nation makes larger and wise use of Its Us mineral Foreign n markets In the main can be bewon bewon bewon won and held only as the tho quantity or quality of ot the Made in America prod product rivals that of or the tho goods offered offered offered offer offer- ed by y the other producing nations The buyer whether he be in the Iho Far East Easl or in South America wants tho most and the best for tor hi bin hia mone money Yet it il would seem a safe rule of oC national conduct that Industry should begin at al home and therefore every industrial opportunity In should be If It these opportunities opportunities opportunities are recognized and grasped overy every one of us can indulge In n |