Show THE LAW or OF TILE THE LONG RUN nun such words as chance and the like imply only tho the aba cince of tiny any of 01 recognize cause anti tin the doctrine of if chances chancer la Is a und development of the lite laws relating lating rc to lo a series yr or aggregation or of bents cici ils concern corning ana the components or of abich wo we are abiol ignorant I 1 if f experience bhonn flint in a certa certain lri serias serifs of trial there la IN a martel marked tendency for a coin to fall on one face rather than the hie othar wu we are arc led ld at once to suspect that there Is id somi something thing in ila the of lofting or in the die nature of the coln coin itself or in bic some other less easily understood condition which has cauca this tendency and of 1 u I 1 knon that abat our elpie ann for the probability cannot ic be coi col the un h t birsul aty t tf ff f this hits jr iiii 14 91 lit ilic I 1 go to lu th li he ka ika i of the long icing run cr mii a it la in lint tho the law of if the I 1 long run in simple language this that lin uever obscure obB cur or acla re la chely an imm may if be in the long anik run rull it all 11 make it ir clit any kiy al AY bo 1 c evaluated d in quantity an and character ariit if hita num aunt ur tr of 1 la Is great the pipii application ila loll 1011 of the calculus of probabilities if ties to the doper calculus on of life expectation ion annj other ollice of great c to a life insurance ant and annuity has long been admitted anti and statistical melbo meldola mel hola Lq based on thu the principle of tile the long ions tun un haac been in vogue in the study of 0 tile tho distribution trib ution and priva an valenca lenco of disease dibease there la Is goltl reason for believing that what ahat la Is ordin ordinarily artly known as purely lital death and injury ts is in distribution toy by the same saine inexorably inexorable law I 1 aw loi ilov l oi illustrations 0 ahli I 1 ant am indebted I 1 to 0 an 11 officer of one of the greet railway systems of tho ilia country I 1 airle included tables ing inc the classification of accidents as to occupation result etc barill TA TM 1 A CI I AS TO pal I 1 ON numble of casualties tra travel 0 rasto on sell ben public 1 u b ie ini ear tres gc era rs plo votes passers paa acri total v try iel fall Z M 2183 az 12 1 av BIC alfi aj 4 aw ls zi 2 I 11 9 IW la 17 1 lb l no IA IV api moul mesa 2 wk 1 l 2771 IM aw ratio of per per jorge ier lr lot r ive cent cent cent cem color cent cent iq sa I 1 fi 6 5 st I 1 73 4 13 I 1 1 laki 10 IW by 6 61 I 1 6 av to 11 1 aw b 6 46 I 1 G U HB I 1 4 13 t 3 63 7 71 7 if I 1 I 1 1 10 0 men mean I 1 6 4 u 56 ja 7 12 11 7 b 1 I 1 tile of the tb rato ratio Is certainly ory cry striking naturally tile the rallay collects collector this information aith lah the view of being bene filed ly by it anti and therefore it may bo be expected that as itu its character ji do clofed front year to year tile the opera lion of what has haa been called chance in conti controlling the distribution of accidents accident dents lustic aill n lie interfered with ty toy new malch mill und tend strongly to lo tile the number of casty illic lc ce CB specially ally in those classes in steel dent la is most costly to the corporation the results ro tulla exhibited herewith furnish evidence that his la is already felt nut but tho the mot mo t curious and result out by the 1 Is lite constancy tona tancy of ratio of distribution of injuries among various classes such much its nal death loaa 1089 of limb loss of finger fracture etc it tin fr to estimate the lie a priori probability of any ally ont on of these occurrences and they ho facts here cited furnish a n illustration of tilt the operation of the principle or law of tile long run is dellner above indeed in numbers relatively so a 0 mencill it la 18 extremely surprising to find BO many instances of persis persistency toncy ren erni cral results oa as to character churaru er of injury ant and inthout reference to occupation are arc shown in tallu it 11 we pira aro here treating a total of about un an average of something less than per annum tadan TAI tl classel cli mn AS TO NATURI OF INJURY ratto of 11 ll 11 asb W ano 3 ejean aann 1 or per ivr I or per I or cent cant cent cent cent cent death in 3 90 85 sa 8 91 9 1 loss lorn of limb 2 27 7 22 21 23 23 loss LORM of or too loo SO 30 30 27 20 0 elf S 8 injury 4 13 21 27 c G ia 13 or dislocation cation 6 1 a l cp GG C G 62 2 c CS sprains iia 1 I 05 tt 91 I 1 U i 6 I 1 15 0 cuts cut nud and bramen 1119 41 ft sar A a LI 2 2 2 29 r a n 1 bo 10 0 to almost any ally extent but it 11 thol that enough has been bc eu chown ki ili tile existence in this instance of tile the principle under there lit la one point to which it normy worth athile to infalt especial all afteu lion nan ann 1 h cut conn 0 it alch it i as ai to the lit inherent berent of cert certain tin cadent M 4 such events are those them which for reamona entirely indr inde pendent or of the pro probability bablity of their occurrence have a particular AS an iffie I 1 may rotor refer to the chance odilie of the appearance ot of it ft parties lar hand dt at it II mail nothing leys less than that duricr tile tho progress of a game fiame or of eich ech man round found himself in possession of tile the hop lea thirteen cards of ono one stilt eull the it a priori proba it if 0 at such h an event it 14 all but infinitely n n c J ro A cn and ad li it AS thought lit to be nce sr osar to fortify th the account tit published with affioti its of all the pl players tyers slid and abort of one or two to gani mho happened to be tho the game it probably 1 10 13 3 few w who read this ht acen account tint that the chances against l any other bolher particular ani distribution or of the cards mere juat us AS neat as ar this ind and fill that it the result tit of every ocal deal of the cards car Js Is JUM its aa remarkable rc its aa this and as little likely ever to occur again in life iho lifetime of the iho players indeed I 1 nd any anent e ent of life when considered gil in connection alth hillh contemporaneous anti and events in all their be fauna found to have a L priori chances so overwhelmingly against it that it bealli impossible ilia alint t it eer pr happen prof T C mendenhall in science ne new w york condensed for foi public opinion |