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Show Monday • October 13, 2008 News Briefs HOOGE'S HEROES Campus news Community Education Preparedness Classes Of- Dr. Jay DeSart predicts that Obama will win the 2008 presidential election by 3.6 percent. The last time he predicted a presidential election he was right. Courtesy of Jay DeSart Dr. Jay DeSart: forecasting the election country, is to get more people interested and involved. One of the big challenges As a political sci- for me is to get my students to see that politics and govJF ence professor, ernment are not the remote how do you view things that have very little to the political system do with their everyday lives found in Utah (speand to show them that the people we elect are making cifically UVU)? decisions that ultimately imA Well, moving from pact virtually every aspect of /-%, Florida to Utah as I did their Lives. in 2004, it was quite a shock to the system. I'd What should be moved from one of the most uJ done to change electorally competitive and or improve the important states in U.S. Presidential elections ~ I lived in political system here on campus or in the Palm Beach County during the 2000 election mess - to community? quite arguably the least competitive state in the country. That's the $64,000 quesAs a result, I don't get to see ( tion. I think what we as much of the campaigns * need to do is demonhere as I did in Florida. strate to the community that a When was this That being said, I've been vibrant democracy is depenmodel first impressed by the level of in- dent upon having a diversity What did you created? terest and involvement that of viewpoints being allowed hope to accomI've seen among the student to be heard. In that respect, plish through Our forecast model was body at UVU, even in this as heated and difficult as the first published in the your election model? very electorally uncompeti- Michael Moore controversy International Journal was a few years ago, I think tive environment. Well, certainly one of of Forecasting in 1999. Since it went a long way to opening the things we were that time we've refined it and Do you think that up a dialog, among students attempting to. accompublished an update to the faculty but also between students, faculty and model in 2003 in Social Sci- plish is to come up with a reUVU and the community at and staff are suf- large, about such issues as ence Quarterly. The model ally accurate forecast model. But our interest goes well ficiently eduthat we used to generate this the importance of political year's forecast was the prod- beyond that. Much of the tolerance and the freedom cated? uct of a further refinement research in election studies of speech. I can honestly that we presented in a paper over the past several decades I think that there are say that in my 17 years of at the Western Political Sci- has basically suggested that plenty of opportunities teaching American Governence Association conference what happens during the for students, faculty ment, I'd never had a more course of the fall campaign and staff to become educated lively, interesting and educathis past March. has a minimal effect on the about the candidates and is- tional discussion of the First outcome of the election. sues. In my four years here Amendment in my classes What was your That notion is reinforced by than those that I had in the inspiration and/ the fact that we can generally I've been very pleased to see fall of 2004 when Michael the large number and wide or reasoning for predict, usually with amaz- range of events that UVU has Moore came to campus. making this forecast ing accuracy, how the elec- put on. The challenge here, tion will turn out a month or as it is everywhere in the model? •HANNAHOOGEHOPKINSON News Writer lt came from research that we were doing sevThe months before a presv eral years ago on the idential election are anxietyaccuracy of statewide elecpacked for most Americans. tion polls. We'd found that It is a time of great change. those polls taken during the People stand on edge, and month of September were a slander fly as the Novemfairly good indicator of how ber deadline approaches. the election would turn out But what if you could know in each of the states. Using with some certainty which candidate was going to win them to generate a prediction before the actual vote? That of how the election would is a prediction, and probable turn out was just a natural fact, that one UVU profes- extension. Another reason sor has granted the public. we were interested in doing Through the DeSart and Hol- it was because while there brook Model, Jay A. DeSart, are many forecast models a political science professor, that are used to predict the claims that Barack Obama national popular vote, ours is will come out victorious by one of the only models that 3.6 percent. Dr. DeSart is also generates a prediction our hero for the week. Here of the all-important Electoral College vote. We're able to is what he had to say. do that because we are looking at state data. A two in advance of the election. A Q A Q ed by Orem Paramedics to a local hospital for further evaluation. Oct. 6 • MEDICAL • An 18-year-old female suffered a panic attack in the Hall of Flags. The female was evaluated by UVU police and taken to Student Health Services for further evaluation. BLOTTER Oct. 2008 Oct. 1 • DRUG OVERDOSE • UVU police and Orem Paramedics responded to the Digital Learning Center due to a male who had passed out. The male had overdosed on prescription painkillers and was taken to a local hospital for further treatment. Oct. 6 • MEDICAL • A 55-year-old male suffered a possible heart attack in the Gunther Trades building. The victim was transport- MATHESON from • A4 helped people with their taxes for twenty years, disagreed. "I think there needs to be some finger pointing," she said as she explained that unethical lenders in the mortgage industry have caused huge problems for many of her clients. "It was greed," she said, "and it was on a national scale." According to Matheson, the bailout did not address many issues, such as the houses that will be in fore- Oct. 6 • AGENCY ASSIST • UVU police responded to the area of 800 S. Sunny Side Lane on a report of an adult male that suffered a ruptured vein in his leg. The male was transported by ambulance to a local hospital for further treatment. Oct. 6 • TRAFFIC ACCIDENT • UVU police responded to an accident involving two vehicles in the roundabout that was caused by improper lane travel. Oct. 6 • WARRANT SERVICE • UVU police initiated a traffic stop on a vehicle traveling 52 mph in a 35 mph zone. The driver had a warrant for his arrest out of Wasatch County. The driver was taken into custody and booked into the Utah County Jail. closure six to 12 mbnths from now. "A thoughtful, deliberate approach," he said, would have been more constructive. However, the central bank interventions going on are appropriate steps because that is where the problem lies. im Matheson His district and work, visit www.matheson.house.gov fered • UVU Community Education is offering four preparedness classes lo help people cope with the unexpected. Current economic events have caused people to ask themselves if they arc ready for other unforeseen events or emergencies. "Preparedness for the Clueless" is for those who aren't sure how to begin preparing for a disaster. This class teaches the basics of family preparedness and is on Thursday, Oct. 16 from 7 p.m. to 8:30 p.m. "Water and Sanitation: Water is Essential to Emergency Survival" class is focused on how to find, store, purify and conserve water. Class is on Thursday, Oct. 23 from 7 p.m. to 8:30 pm. "How to Cook When the Lights Go Out" will teach how to cook using alternative energy. This class is held on Thursday, Oct. 30 from 7 p.m. to 8:30 p.m. "How Not to Freeze When the Power Goes Out" class focuses on how to safely and efficiently warm your home when there is no power. This class is held on Thursday, Nov. 6 from 7 p.m. to 8:30 p.m. AH four classes are held at American Fork Jr. High located at 20 West 1120 North in American Fork. Each class is only $29 which allows two people to attend for the price of one. Register for all four classes and you'll only be charged for three. For more information or to register for classes, visit ce.uvsc.edu/commed or call Sally at (801) 863-8012. Get published in Warp and Weave • students can submit "speculative fiction" to Warp & Weave by 5 p.m. on Oct. 15 in the English department, LA 114, They are looking for poetry, short stories and original artwork of a "speculative" nature - which means sci-fi, fantasy, alternate realities, creatures, magic, etc. It's about having fun and getting published. Award-winning author Ed McClanahan to speak on p • Ed McClanahan, award-winning author and Ken Kesey Merry Prankster, will read from his new autobiography on Oct. 14 at 1 p.m. inSC213b. McClanahan is the author of several books, including the novel. The Natural Man. McClanahan's place in our literary past has been described as "an uncommon link between the 1960s California counterculture experience and a rural American lifestyle." All guest author readings are free and open to the public. The UVU Bookstore will also be selling his latest book. This event is sponsored by Ken Sanders Rare Books, UVU's Happenings in Humanities, The UVU College of Humanities and Social Sciences, and The UVU English and Literature Department. For more information contact Lee Ann Mortensen at mortenle® uvu.edu or (801) 863-8785. National news California gay marriages surpass Massachusetts • During the first three months since legalization of gay marriages in California, a study found that nearly 11,000 couples have wed, compared to 10,385 in Massachusetts. The research was released Oct. 6 by the Williams Institute at UCLA. However, this November, Califomians will vote to decide what constitutes marriage in Proposition 8, which could amend the California State Constitution to define marriage as being a union between a man and a woman. 10-year-Old driver flips Van • A 10-year-old Tennessee boy driving two intoxicated adults and two other children flipped the van he was driving while traveling at 90 mph. Inside the crashed van was a 38-year-old woman, who was trying to swallow as many pills as she could, and a 48-year-old man who had admitted to drinking at least 15 beers. The three children in the van were related to the adults, but authorities were not sure how. The adults and children were taken to the hospital for treatment of minor injuries. The intoxicated man was charged with seven violations, including a DUI and felony reckless endangerment, and the three children were placed in state care. MySpace and Hewlett Packard announce new web printing deal • The new web printing deal involves both companies agreeing to place a "click and print" button on MySpace pages. The button will allow MySpace users to customize how they print images and preview what they look like and will allow users to design posters from MySpace images. The integration will roll out in November and will cover MySpace communities in the United States, Australia, Canada and Westem Europe. Cervical cancer and AIDS research win Nobel Prize for 2008 • A German scientist who found that the. human papilloma virus causes cervical cancer and two French researchers who discovered the human AIDS virus received the Nobel Prize in medicine on Sept. 7. The prize money totaled $ 1.4 million dollars shared between the three winners. World news FINLAND • Finland's ex-president Martti Ahtisaari won the Nobel Peace Prize for his efforts to build a lasting peace from Africa and Asia to Europe and the Middle East. The Norwegian Nobel Committee said it honored Ahtisaari for his efforts taking-place for more than three decades to resolve international conflicts. Ahtisaari, 71, was selected by the committee to return its focus to traditional peace work. CAMBODIA • A Cambodian couple married for 40 years decided to separate and literally split their assets. The husband cut their house into two. The split house can be seen in Prey Veng, the southern province .of Cambodia. The couple would not talk lo newspapers, but the village chief told a reporter that the husband was angry because the wife wouldn't tend to him when he was ill. AFGHANISTAN • The situation in Afghanistan is worse since the U.S. led the invasion in 2001 and the country is in danger of a "downward spiral" into violence and chaos, according to an intelligence report draft. The National Intelligence Estimate, using 16 intelligence agencies, say that Afghanistan's deterioration has accelerated alarmingly in the past two months. The Bush administration said privately that Afghanistan is now the single most pressing security threat in thefightagainst terrorism. uvuReview.com * apply in SC2?9' |
