Show AS GOES MAINE AE I SO SD GOES COUNTRY f fis IS MERELY PHRASE SAYS SULLIVAN By Mark Sullivan So far as as' as any deduction having even en the faintest reasonableness is to tobe tobe tobe be made from the recent Maine election election election elec elec- tion it should confine itself to the trend or drift shown by that election as between the Republicans and tile the Democrats A world of loose deductions deductions deductions deduc deduc- are made the great great bulk of which are quite absurd To say say offhand that As goes Maine so goes the countr country is mer merely ly a Go phrase If the Ule deduction Is to tu have any degree of reasonableness neStS and accuracy it m must st start w with wyth th the change In Maine this year ear as ras compared compared compared com com- pared with four four years ago Let us therefore begin with the figures lor tor the Maine gubernatorial election in 1920 In that year the Republican candidate polled votes and the Democratic candidate votes The total was At this point we can malte make tine tile first deduction from the Maine election election election elec elec- tion this year that is of an any account The l he total vote in Maine aine at the gubernatorial gubernatorial gu- gu election of 1920 was 33 This year It was That is to Sa say the total vote ote of or Maine this tilis year increased ed 23 per percent percent cent over oyer the total vote of 1920 If we assume that there thero will viII be a similar increase of or 23 per cent in m inthe inthe the total vote throughout the country country coun cons try then thene we e sl should have this year In Inthe Inthe inthe the presidential election in ill all th the states a a. tot total l popular vote of 3 32 as against In 1920 t 1 tI I This is probably the he most reasonable reasonable ble of or all ail the inferences to be made mader r from Sroni rom the Maine vote It will be Interesting in interesting interesting In- In to see how nearly it comes true We Ve come now to the effort to get some light on how the presidential vote this year will be i ed a as between Coolidge and Davis Vote is Dissected I In 1920 the Republicans in Maine I cast 66 per cent of the total vote fore This year the Republicans cast O only IY 50 per cent o of the total vo vote e that thatis is to say there has been a falling oi oil ott oilin ottin in the Republican vote in Maine aine of 9 per cent from 66 per cent Expressed Expressed Ex E.- Ex- Ex pressed in terms of percentages Lip lio means that the Rep Republican bUcan vote in Maine this year ear was or ly by 14 per cent less than the Ule tev b- b lican share of the total vote In III 1920 At this point we must make the only assumption worth while that can be made about the use of the Maine alne vote as a barometer We must assume ume that throughout all t the c. c states there will be a it falling offin off offin in the Republican vote of or the same I percentage as happened in Maine l If It we avee assume that the Republicans in all the states will suffer a uniform falling off of af 14 per cent from the 1920 figures the result would be J I I that the Republicans would lose the following states which they carried carried J in 1920 Missouri 18 electoral vites Oklahoma Oklahoma Okla Okla- homa 10 electoral votes Tennessee Tennes Tennes- see 12 electoral votes New Mexico Me i co 3 electoral votes Delaware Delaware- 3 electoral votes The total of these is 46 electoral votes Added to the southern electoral votes which the Democrats actually carried and which was all they carried in 1920 1936 G we we have as the number of electoral electoral electoral elec elec- I toral votes the Democrats would De be e likely to carry this year if the same trend shown in tin Maine holds good throughout t all the country j I I Other Possible States In addition to the states I named there are three others which the Democrats would not quite carry carryon on the basis basis- of a reduction of at 14 percent per percent cent in the Republican vote but which nevertheless the D Democrats would so nearly carry that a very slight ma margin might give them these states electoral Those are arc Ohio 24 votes making a total of If It to this there is added West Nest Virginia not on the ground of or the Mane Trane ane I per percentage but on the ground that it is Daviss Davis's home state we have electoral votes for Ifor the Democrats The total necessary to make a ma- ma jorty o of This leaves 50 electoral electoral electoral elec elec- toral votes necessary to be carries carriea by La Follette in order to prevent Coolidge from having a majority La Chances As to La Follette in all that has been said so far It has been bee l assumed assumed assum assum- ed that La Follette would would take as many votes from train the Rep Republicans as from the Democrats Democrats Democrats' in hI the states state already named But when we come cometo cometo cometo to consider La Follette in terms or ot electoral votes it is a fact that all the states La Follette Is Il ii mey ery ey to carry and of which he it ils is likely to tu get the electoral vote are states state that thai went Republican in 1920 To make up 50 electoral vo votes es fetLa for fet La Ld Follette It would be necessary to assume assum that he should carry some frome om such sch as the fo following Wisconsin 13 North Dakota o 0 South Dakota 5 Minnesota 1 12 Montana 4 Washington 7 7 In Inthis Inthis Inthis this computation it would be necess necessary sary saty s ry for La Follette to carry every everyone everyone one of these states He might of I course coume fail to carry one or more ot or these and carry earry some other state stale that would give him the equivalent number of oC electoral votes It Is frequently claimed for lor example that La Follette may carry Iowa which has 13 electoral votes The reader also who wha- has followed this estimate so far will have observed ed that It includes several assumptions assumptions and that Coolidge can be prevented prevented prevented pre pre- vented from being elected in November November Novem Novem- I ber bel by all these com coming ngi through 0 I Doubtful Assumptions Perhaps the most doubtful ot of these assumptions is the one one about La Follette's strength The other as assumptions assumptions as- as which are based on the Maine election seen seem to the writer y to be the only kind of deductions that can reasonably be made from front the Maine aine election If H there was in Maine alne this year year a atren trend tren which gave the Republicans 14 per cent less of the popular vote than they had in 1920 It seems reasonable reasonable rea rea- to infer that substantially the sanle same trend would show itself more or less uniformly throughout the country This deduction is ds confessedly confessedly confessedly con con- a rather loose one About all the writer pretends to Lo say for itIs it itis Is Ib that it if any deduction from tie trie e Maine election has value this one should have rather more value than most Probably the he most valid objection to this deduction will come from I those who will ill i'll say that the vote for governor in m Maine laine this year was not t normal because it was reduced bythe Ku Klux Klan issue an and that we should take as our basis o of con comparison compari- compari parison pari- pari son not the Maine laine vote for governor govern govern- or but the Maine vote on the sena- sena vot vote as the basis the re results results results re- re would work vork out les favorably for tor the Democrats i Having said all this it remains to tobe tobe tobe be f said aid that if the writer were com compelled cam COUl- to choose he would prefer preer under the complex circumstances of the present year to make no deductions deduc deductions deduc- deduc whatever from the Maine election election elec elec- tion but to subscribe to what CoJO- CoJO nel George Harvey said aid recently The simple truth is that never before before before be be- fore in our history have there been fewer sound bases either in popular popular popular lar psychology or in trustworthy Information UPI upon upon which to rest an intelligent forecast of the coming j I I election I n |