Show NATIONAL NA AFFAIRS by CARTER FIELD Recent polls show s Gar Car Carrier Garner is aua the most ner rier away Iopu popular lar mr of o tho o tho ilio Democratic con con- contenders contenders tenders for lor the presidential nomination Polls Poll arc very zery annoying to New Deal Dealers 1 eal- eal ers they want an art investigation ton lion Recent opposition to some o of 0 the Presidents President's Pres policies indicates in that hat con con- congress congress gress has lla got go hack bad to normal of Vice President John Nance Garner Gamer arc naturally natura delighted with the recent polls showing that Garner Is far tar and away the most popular of the Demo Democratic cratic contenders for or the presidential nomination next year ear not count count- countIng countIng Ing ng President Roosevelt himself HU ills tremendous lead over New Yorks York's native son James A A. Farley Fancy who runs second In the polls po with every every- everybody body else way the down list Is most Impressive There Is one angle of ot this how however ever which keeps the whole effect e from being perfect from the tho Car Gar Carner ner ncr mens men's viewpoint That li is the possibility that the effect of elf such polls will cause arley Farley I to become a hundred per p r cent booster for a Roosevelt third term That to the Farley Fancy men would be Just about the most terrible thing that could hap happen pen They are arc counting heavily on Big Dig Jim In the next 10 months months- not to aid Garner directly but to oppose Roosevelt and und thus aid the Texas candidate Indirectly For some time now the Garner folks have admitted privately that their one bit bin hurdle Is Roosevelt Roosevell himself not the fear that he t e might support some candidate other than Garner that Garner that would not worry thorn them at all but all but the fear tear that thul he might go after atter the nomination himself They ore are sure they can beat anyone else nt at the Democratic convention They think they can beat brat Roosevelt him himself self sell but when they begin to talk about that there is a n certain change in their manners which Indicates that tha t there is at least an clement of doubt Hence another phase of oJ the re recent re- re recent cent polls which would seem srem to Indicate Indi cate that at the present moment moments Roosevelt could not carry New York state against a strong Republican is highly satisfactory to the Garner workers Their chief fear tear about the s I l delc delegate al at tho the Democratic national convention Is that they may believe that Roosevelt Is the only Democrat who could possibly be elected Is Unwittingly Encouraged l by llY Curiously enough this view Is be bC being ing tag given more encouragement though unwittingly by the Republicans cans than by the Roosevelt fanatics families themselves The point Is that every time a Republican leader lender sounds of otT about the third term he creates the Impression that the Republicans would rather have the Democrats nominate anyone else than Roose Roose- velt veil Hence the logical deduction that the tho Republicans believe they would more difficulty beating boating Roosevelt than any other o ler Democrat To a man Interested chiefly In party success success success-OS as many of the dele delegates gates will wil be because In the nature of things they are men mm mc either hold holding ing lag office or benefiting in some oth other er r way from Democratic rule nt lit Washington Washington Washington-It U might become very Important that the UH Republicans believe be be- lieve Roosevelt would be the hardest man to beat It would give Roose Roosevelt velt a strong ace uce in the hole in the tl e convention maneuvering The truth is that there Is no such positive conviction among the Re Re- Republicans publicans though there is enough fear that it is true to Justify the suspicion The Republicans have been concentrating on tile the third anti-third term tradition because they have I been believing rather firmly up to now that Roosevelt Roose would be he the Democratic nominee Embarrass Em Advocates A of oj Third l 7 Terra Term for Roosevelt New healers Dealers are terribly annoyed over the recent polls widely pub pub- published throughout the lIe country countr The move to have a congressional investigation investigation of such polls polls polls-as as to how they are taken and particularly particular why wh I they are taken was taken was born some weeks before the recent poll of New NewYork NewYork NewYork York state which has hus been more embarrassing to the advocates of a third term for Roosevelt than any anyone one other thing that has happened happened anywhere any time or on any sub sect A very sound argument can be 1 made against the polls due to a queer queer characteristic of human na no- ture tare For some reason there are lots of ol people who like to be bandwagon band wagon riders They want to be with the winner This resulted In quite no nn an outcry from the Democratic leaders back in 1016 It will be recalled re reo re- re recalled called that most of the eastern states which reported fairly early earlyon on election night went decisively for Charles Churles E E. Hughes Democratic leaders leders le ders contended that something t J should be done about this on the theory that on the Pacific coast people peo peo- r f pIe p who had not yet voted would I hear about how the East Eat was going end and would be influenced 0 i I l T To those of cf us who cling to our oui views and vote for candidates ever even if we know they are going to tel lose this is hard to understand but there is no doubt that there Is li enough truth in it to make it important There Is la another point So far the polls that are arc now so embarrass embarrassIng Ing lag to New Dealers have been a as 81 correct nut Dut there is no nc proving that sooner or later laler they will vill not come a terrific cropper That has been the history of all other paUl polli on elections which have attracted national attention Up to 1010 2016 for Cor example the polls taken by the old New York Herald were amazing in their accuracy In that year every ever Sunday for tor months before election the Herald editors apologized to their readers reader because they had taken too large a percentage percent age of their totals In California As California was virtually two toone to toone toone one for Hughes as against Woodrow Wilson the editors edl tors explained Ined this Improperly weighted their totals totals- making them appear too on the Hughes side tide Polls Poll Sooner SO r or Later Come Coma a I Terrific Cropper Most people have forgotten but bul that Is the explanation lion of why the eastern newspaper editors and po political writers were so gullible about the early returns on that election night when as a II matter of fact newspapers of all aU shades of political cal opinion Including the New York Times which was ardently for Cor Wilson Wil Wil- Wilson son lon conceded Hughes Hughes' election That was the end of ot the Herald polls Dig Big newspapers began brgan after that election sending their own correspondents cor cor- correspondents correspondents respondents over the country to In In- political situations But Hut then came en me the Literary Digest poll Its Hs accuracy was uncanny for years In ln 1030 1036 I 36 when every good political reporter began to suspect that there was something sour about It the poll none the less had the ef rC effect ef- ef feet ol 01 4 putting doubt In the minds even of the th most optimistic New Dealers article In a n subsequent magazine Charles Michelson shrewd director of New Deal publicity admitted that he had spent a lot of money un unnecessarily unnecessarily necessarily to combat the last min mm- minute ute ule pay envelope tax attack of ot the G G. O. O 1 l forces lie He expresses only scorn acorn for the Literary Digest poll but bill one wonders whether this ex ex- Pease pense would have boon approved If it there here had har not been bren a n lingering fear Cear that maybe the Digest poll was in indicating In a n ground round swell which some some- low how escaped Investigators The new polls arc are much more sd scientific scientific entitle of course Actions Action Tend to rut Put Doubt 1 n rn the lire Minds of tOttS Congress has almost gotten back backo to o normal after normal after more than six years of following the leader lender This las has nothing to do with how much President resident Roosevelt succeeds in get get- Wi Ing f Ms ht way despite the critical I tactics first of the Ule house on the VA TVA question and second of the enate on the silver and Ion tion questions Every I very member of oC the house vot vot- Ing ng against the President on TVA and every senator voting against him ilm on silver and devaluation knew that hat these votes would hurt Mr l Roosevelt between bet now and next June when the Democratic National convention will pick the party's nominee for fol President The actions notions tend to put pLit doubt In Inthe Inthe inthe the minds of the voters as liS to whether er cr the President l is right rl ht on TVA TV A whether he Is Js sound on the mane monc- tory questions They will viIi form the subject of ot crossroad store debates nil all next winter from Maine Maine- to Call Cali I I forum fornia with the only possible Io result that the President will ill lose n a eer certain tain tam percentage of his supporters When the senate and house tight on such controversial Issues it is almost al at- almost most beyond question that tho t folks will wil willBe willbe Be found here and there who lio will take the opposition side no matter what the real merits of cf the Ule case may be Since the President figures to t n a dominating degree in the monetary disputes and since his attitude a on onT onTA TVA TA T A is well known the cited can only be harmful to him Some of those supporting him up to these is issues Is Is- IsI isSUS leave In him sues Sut'S file almost bound to This Is almost an un inexorable political political cal eal law In It has nothing to do with Mr Roosevelt's virtues or failings It proves pro nothing with respect to them It is 15 Just a thing which hicl nl al- always al always ways works Despite NIi I His llis Huge Majority former for m Ir er Leaders Opposed l' l Id I'd Him ii 11 i in m This law works with especial rig rigor or against a u President who does n a alot lot of cf things Probably Calvin Cool Cool- Coolidge idge suffered less from Cram it than mn any nn President since the Civil war but tile the chief accusation that critics bring against his record is that he hewus was vas a do nothing Mr Ir Roosevelt has hns done a n lot of ot things Nearly ev ev- every ever cry ery er one of them wont went against the grain with wi 1 some of his supporters be bo they few ew or many man In th 1936 despite his thumping majority ma ma- a number lumber of distinguished former leaders haders of his party part opposed him publicly The tiling thing is rumula tive tIe I Will 11 n. Hays once said suld that the thc function of the Republican national committee was to assimilate not eliminate The process under dis discussion here hefe amounts to a series of eliminations The whole point of 01 this is Js that every ev ev- every ery cry politician of enough importance to have gotten elected to the Ule house or er the senate appreciates this political cal axiom So the boys bo s 's in the sen sen- senate senate ate knew what they were ere doing when they made a spectacular stand against President Roosevelt Deli BtU SyndIcs SyndIcs' i Sr I |