Show NATIONAL NA AFFAIRS Reviewed by y CARTER FIELD Insiders arc convinced the President is I working on ona onla a phase o of f political strategy for f or the next election Deal starts all over again Frank Franl Murphy Murph looming as white while hope of the Veil Deal President expected to win uin rt n his battle to continue his spending sending policy WASHINGTON Insiders are arc con con- convinced vinced that President Roosevelt Roose far tar from Irom having a change of heart on the principle of taxing undistributed corporation profits at a higher rate than those paid out in dividends Is Isnow isnow now cow working on a broad phase of political strategy aimed at the pres pres- election next year The proof they say will ilI be re reo revealed re- re revealed by comparing two speeches very carefully The first is that tha t deiv delivered ered at the Amen Ameri American a can Retail federa federation f dera tion banquet by President resident Roosevelt The second Is the outline for tax revl revision sion slon aimed at Ing ng business laid be be- tore ore the house ways and means commit committee tee by Secretary of the Treasury Henry Secretary Jr I It will be noted that Mr Morgen thau than suggested repeal of the last vestige of the special tax on undistributed corporation earnings It Is known cnown that the President is private private- ly y strongly against this revision It Its Itis I Is s further known that I would not think of saying anything publicly against his chiefs chief's will The answer to this apparent con contradiction contradiction Is that the President has decided to give business the opportunity unity it has demanded to to revise the tax law or rather permit its revision just as business spokes spokes- spokesmen I Imen men have been urging Then if business does docs not revive spectacularly If it does not absorb millions of unemployed now on gov gov- government government rolls of one sort or another er the President can say to the country We gave them everything they said they needed needed even even things we knew they ought not to have in order to test this thing thoroughly Now we know that business CAN CANNOT NOT or WILL NOT function in such sucha a way a as a to take bike care of ot this situa tion The government perforce must take care of these people We cannot let them starve or freeze And we will not support them by bythe bythe bythe the demoralizing dole New Deal Starts All Over Again With Critics Stumped So the New Deal starts all over again with its critics deprived of the answer they have been making for at least four years years that that busi busl business business ness would revive if u the government would just let it t alone knocked alone knocked into a cocked hat If business should revive the New Dealers figure that reform would merely be delayed until after the election Actually they would like to see gee this not because they do not believe their reforms are good but because the present business situa situa- situation situation tion has them considerably worried They are just a little disturbed by bythe bythe bythe the growing conclusion In the count coun country try as evidenced first in the purges then in the 1938 election and more recently by polls that the New Deal has not been so hot bot in that it has added billions to the national debt while the number of unemployed apparently Is as great grea as it was at atthe atthe atthe the depth of the depression Good times next year would make a Democratic victory both as to the presidency and end as to congress much more likely In fact plenty of shrewd observers think the Demo Demo- Democrats Democrats will have to fumble the ball rather badly to lose the next elec elec- election election tion if it business is good and obviously obviously growing better Parties rare rare- rarely Iy ly lose elections in good times It Itis ItIs Itis is economic distress almost invariably ably which beats the party In pow power er er if one except the rare cam cam- campaign campaign in which some somo issue moves the people more deeply than their pock pock- Sometimes there is very little rhyme or reason in this but it is generally true Moreover the Republicans are not In good shape despite their astute leadership on Capitol lull Kill They are ere hopelessly divided on issues Even Evenin in congress this t ls is apparent Now Frank Murphy Looms As At New Deal White Hope Elope Attorney General Frank Murphy is looming more and more as the white hope of the New Deal for the presidential nomination next year yearl If l Franklin D. D Roosevelt does dOlI not choose to run Murphy is the third candidate to be trotted out by bythe bythe bythe the hundred The first was I Robert H. H Jackson now solid solicitor tor general President Roosevelt was very anxious to tG have Jackson run for governor of New York last year vear Had Jackson run and been elect elect- td d d. d he would now be governor of vf New ew York and in a not only if d being able to do things and keep n the limelight but rf d f car car- ltd td the Empire stale slate In Ina a year which n was as not too to wood old tot rut the Democrats Of course Jackson Jackon might not have ben been een elected had Roosevelt pre prevailed on the leaders leuders to nominate nom him lim but the Interesting thing at al atthe atthe althe the moment Is that the New York leaders turned thumbs down on him and have never regretted their de de- de cislon After Jacksons Jackson's elimination for elimination for It could scarcely be considered d any any- anything anything thing less less Harry Harry L. L Hopkins be became came the white hope of the New Deal This movement mo Involved also a bit of business appeasement At Atthe Atthe Atthe the moment the New Dealers were rather thoroughly convinced that they hey must have a business revival If they were to be kept In power after next year ear earThen Then III Ill Health Iut Put Harry tarry Hopkins Hopkin Out of Picture Two things happened to that No Noone Noone Noone one is sure precisely y which of the two was ns the chicken and which was the egg but one was that t Hopkins was out of the picture on account of his health and nod that while he was out of the picture the spenders and business batters climbed Into the saddle again and again and are still there ther as this Is written Maybe If Hopkins had been well I enough to fight for the program with I regard to business he certainly stood for or when he was seeking conformation I. I tion as secretary of commerce things would have ha been different Or maybe mabe If the New Dealers had hadnot hadnot hadnot not become convinced that Harrys Harry's constitution would not permit the strain of running for the presidency things would have stayed put It Is difficult to tell Perhaps even Roose Roosevelt Roosevelt velt does docs not know the answer to I that De that as It may most New Dealers will tell you confidentially that they do not think U Hopkins' Hopkins health permits his hll consideration for forthe forthe forthe the candidacy next year Meanwhile Murphy is busily en en- engaged engaged not only In building himself up before the country but In doing it In such a way as to overshadow the similar exploits of Thomas E. E Dewey President Will Win Battle Rattle To Continue Spending Policy President Roosevelt will win the battle he forecast In his address be be- before before fore the American Retail federa tion The spending policy will con can continue continue despite grumbling from con con- conservative conservative leaders not only among the Republicans but tut In the Presidents President's Presidents President's dents dent's own party There will be no reduction In the total taxes paid by business In fact there is likely to tobe tobe tobe be at least a small increase as as' assuming assuming suming that there is any tax revl revision revision sion slon at all aU Some of the nuisance taxes on business may be repealed or revised but If they are then the flat fiat corporation income taxes will be boosted so that the net ef cf effect Sect teet will bo be b to make com com- panics pay more though to ease the burden slightly on unsuccessful com corn There will be no marked curtail curtail- curtailment curtailment ment of government competition with business Unemployed will continue con continue to be aided by work relief relict in instead In in- instead stead of by a dole and social security ty benefits will be greatly extended But In winning the battle Roose Roose- Roosevelt Roosevelt velt runs a serious risk of losing the war The chief reason why there will be no balancing of the budget In fact increased spending is not in sympathy on Capitol Hill with the President Presidents economic theories but the old age age desire for pork and the necessity for logrolling to get t- t it thence hence bigger and bigger Roosevelt has lias Pork on Ills His Side for the Moment This sentiment against spending and the New Deal economic poll poli policies cies Iles is not strong enough yet apparently ap apparently to Insure revision of gov gov- government government spending But It would be tomorrow If the pork element could be eliminated Thus Roosevelt has pork on his side for the moment but the bigger the pork spending the themore themore themore more eager will the congressmen be beto beto beto to swat the next Roosevelt spending proposal which Is not sufficiently greased The defeat by the senate of the Florida ship canal is a per perfect feet example of this The Florida senators did their utmost to include the Florida canal in a logrolling combination and as a matter of fact act had more success than ap ap- appeared appeared appeared on the final roll call Out But Sen Arthur Arhur did such a good publicity job in branding this project that even Pat Harrison whose state of Mississippi is inter inter- interested interested ested in the canal had to go to Sen Claude Pepper and beg to be ex excused Harrison had been making quite a play against spending To have voted for this particular ex expenditure ex- ex expenditure would have put him in inan Inan inan an inconsistent position to put it mildly AR An of which spells more strength for the conservatives at the con convention next year which will nominate the Democratic can candidate candidate for President It explains the enor enormous apparent pop popularity for John John Nance Garner de despite despite t spite Garners Garner's clois cloistered f d vocal chords t tIt It explains the utter collapse of Incipient thorns booms for every New Dealer who has John N. N Garner been put forward as 81 Roosevelt's possible successor It explains the desperate efforts of or the th President to win Sen James F. F Byrnes who has been rather vocal the tho governments government's spend spending spendIng ing log policy ll Hi-ll Sf el |