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Show Sf?ridl8 Order Department University of Utah City 84112 Utah County .Savings Group Hears Inflation Is Greater Peril 74 Than Recession Up Employment - EMPLOYMENT: The civilian work force continued its upward spiral as it zoomed to a new highof 55,280, up 1,037 from last month and 2,762 above November 1972. This represents an annual growth of 5.25. Additionally, it indicates the population growth occurring in the County, since the d of the work force is about total civilian population. Total employment is holding strong at 52,380, up only slightly from a month ago but up 2,804 from November 1972 for an annual growth of 5.25 percent. Agricultural employment habitual-- ' ly declines this time of year as the haractivvests end and other ities abate as cold weather moves in. November was no exception as the number of farm workers dropped by 470 from last month. Also of interest are indications that the trend by farmg ers to replace workers with is machinery continuing. 'Manufacturing employment held at a high 7,760, up just slightly from last month and up by 343 workers over last year. Wholesale and retail trade have creased by 1,480 workers (13.85) during the past twelve months as many new firms have opened for business. November showed no slowing signs as the upward trend continued increasing by 110 workers over the . mid-Octob- er figure. Transportation declined by 20 workers during the month although there was an increase of about 80 workers during the past twelve months. Such a slight increase would be considered below normal in an economy where total work force is rising so rapidly. Perhaps the threat of energy controls and shortagel are curbing anticipated expansion. Mining, Finance and Government employment are essentially unchanged from month and year-agfigures. Service employment increased by 486 workers during the past year. This represents a growth of 3.6 percent. Construction employment decreased some 20 workers from October 73 to November 73. Oddly enough, the number of workers in November this one-thir- out-of-do- presented by Dr. Saul B. Klaman, vice president and chief NAMSB economist. ' As for the impact of the energy crisis a double-barrele- d shotgun both economic and added disruption inflationary the NAMSB forecast pressures commented that this remains almost impossible to quantify, but it is certain to aggravate an already discouraging inflationary outlook. In discussing the inflation-recessio- n problem, the NAMSB note t of the many took forecast economic contradictions and uncertainties involved, but expressed agreement with Federal Reserve Governor Andrew Brimmer, who recently observed, As I weigh the need to combat inflation and the need to be sensitive to the danger of threatening ar interest rates short-ter- m flucdrop in a tuating and starts improved housing deposit inflows for savings banks were among the other major elements of the National below 1973 peaks, staff Associations forecast, Utah Supreme Court Decisions an economic downturn, I come out on the side of continuing the fight against inflation. In such a setting, the NAMSB research staff continued, it is neither likely nor desirable for the Federal Reserve to embrace a - (1973 compared to 1972) Nonagricultural Wage & Salaried Employment Change Building Permit Change (Moving Average) Overall Sales Change (Weighted) Overall Postal Receipts Overall Demand Deposits Overall Time Deposits 136.6 Oct 73 Consumer Price Index ( 1967 Base) Huge Energy Pushed by AEC WASHINGTON (UPI) proposed $10 billion, 5.8 five-yea- - .9 r energy research program under study by President Nixon is aimed at cutting the nations dependence on oil imports in half by 1980 and making the country self sufficient as early as 1985. The program recommended by Chairman Dixy Lee Ray of the Atomic Energy Commission calls for a $683 million increase to $1,572 billion in fiscal 1975 for work in five fields ranging from energy conservation to development of renewable resources such as solar and geothermal energy. federal exThe greatest penditures during the next five years would expand nuclear energy as rapidly as possible, first to supplement and eventually to replace energy obtained from coal, gas and oil. The plan recommended a total government expenditure of $4.09 billion through 1979 with a $214.4 million increase in 1975 to million for nuclear energy research and development. The recommended program is expected to reduce the nations need for projected oil imports in 1980 from 12 to six million barrels a day. The year 1985 is the earliest by $731.7 can which self sufficiency with this be expected reasonably said. program, the report To coordinate the proposed research program, the plan recommended that an operational See details page 4, 20.9 122.4 Oct 72 year was virtually the same as November last year. The difference being by this time last year winter was in full swing, and cutbacks due to weather had already been made. 1973 found temperatures mild vnth practically no reductions due to weather. This would indicate a general slowdown of building and can probably be attributed to high interest rates and building costs. UNEMPLOYMENT: Unemploy ment increased to 2,900 by up from 2,073 last month but down from 3,042 in November 1972. Although there was a rise in total employed, the inciea.-- was not great enough to handle the inHux in work force. As has been prewously stated when population and work force increase, if the number of jobs increase at a corresponding rate; the unemployment rate remains constant. However, when work force increases and jobs available remain constant, the unemployment rate increases. In Utah County, work force increased during the last month while total employed decreased due to some seasonal cutbacks, causing our unemployment rate to jump to 5.2 by energy research and development administration be established by ' July 1, 1974. One of the key recommendations was to develop and perfect ways high sulphur coal can be converted into clean burning synthetic gas and oil. The idea is that this coal gasification and liquidification can at first supplement natural oil and gas and eventually replace it. A total expenditure of $460 million is seen for work improving the domestic production of oil and gas with an increase of $32.2 million for 1975 over 1974. For more work on longer range potential energy resources, a total expenditure of $1,835 billion is recommended with an increase of $94.5 million for 1975. of monetary ease, especially in light of the 1972 experience when overly rapid growth of the money supply aggravated inflation. On the other hand, it is neither likely nor desirable for the Fed to turn overly restrictive in the face of 2.0 - mid-Novemb- The posture 35.7 12.2 Mid-Novemb- er Research Plan - While NEW YORK (ACCN) there is a distinct possibility of recession in 1974, the major issue in the year ahead will continue to be inflation, according to the annual economic forecast of the National Association of Mutual Savings Banks research staff, presented at NAMSBs 27th Mid-yeMeeting December 4. here, A weakening economy, volatile o cost-reducin- AREA SUMMARY in- Hockey News a slowing even recessionary-econo- my, The Golden Eagles, with a first period outburst leading the way s to a victory of the Portland e Saturday night, moved into 'of Denver ahead the Spurs and Seattle Totems, both of whom were losing in their road tilts in San Diego and Phoenix respectively. At the top of this week, the Eagles trailed Phoenix by nine points (with 6 San Diego by four points (one and Portland by three Meanpoints (with 7 held a narrow while, the Eagles lead over Denver and Seattle d on both). (with 3 This week the Salt Lake sextet Phoenix Wednesvisits will in Denver Friday be and day night evening. The Eagles have split four games in the Arizona city (including a 4 loss last week) and hold a gamfe edge over the Roadrunners for the season. The Spurs and Eagles are all even, splitting the two previous matches, with the visitors winning the forecast noted. Rather, the effort will be to preserve a delicate balance between excessive restraint, which would intensify the slowdown, and excessive ease, which would aggravate inflation. As for the rate of inflation in 1974, the NAMSB research staff sees it as being at least as great as in 1973, w'hich will show an average advance of 5 per cent or so on the GNP deflator basis and about 6 per cent on the consumer price index." 6&ch time. Justice Department Files Suit to Halt al Buck-aroo- 6-- 4 4th-plac- games-in-hand- ), game-in-hand- ), games-in-hand- ). one-poi- nt games-in-han- front-runnin- g 4-- 6-- 3 THEN, SATURDAY NIGHT, THE EAGLES & SPURS TANGLE THIS TIME IN THE SALT PALACE. GAME TIME IS 7:30 AND A GOOD, EXCITEABLE CROWD IS EXPECTED. Meanwhile, the Eagles will probably have Phil Headley in the nets for the first time since Oct. 21 when he defeated Phoenix on Arizona ice, Headley played that game while suffering the effects of a detached retina of the left eye, and he underwent corrective surgery Oct. 30. Hes been working out with the team for the past week and appears anxious to get back between the pipes. With both Bob Champoux and Ted Tucker called up to California under "emergency conditions", the Eagles are still in the process of obtaining a second goalie to spell Headley. Center Lyle Bradley is tied for scoring honors this week with Portland's Dennis Giannini, 8 pts. behind Bucks' Art Jones. Larry Patey. with 2 goals, 1 assist Saturday, is in tie for 6-- 2. run-neru- lOlh-plac- e. p Both potential business spending and rising government expenditures will be elements of strength in the 1974 economic picture, but consumer spending Vermont Bank Merger WASHINGTON The has filedsuit in (UPI) Justice Department Vermont to prevent the Merchants National Bank in Burlington and the Montpelier National Bank in Montpelier from merging. Acting Atty. Gen. Robert Bork 'said the suit, filed in U.S. District in Vt., Court Rutland, automatically blocks the proposed merger until the court action is gains next year will be well below the 1973 pace, the NAMSB forecast said. Noting that many recent forecasts of real growth in GNP range from slow economic growth to recession, the NAMSB research staff indicated that its forecast calls for less than 2 per cent real growth in 1974, with the probability of actual declines in output during part of the year. Assuming the successful im- plementation of a "tightrope" rates monetary policy, short-ter10 not 9 to are likely regain the per cent peaks of last summer, the NAMSB research staff said, but neither are they likely to decline precipitously. Instead, the NAMSB forecast looks for money market m yields to trend irregularly downward in coming months. While the NAMSB research staff anticipates an upturn in housing which should be gathering steam by summer, it forecasts that this recovery will be at a slower rate than in 1971-7- 2 because of the ab- sence of any significant stimulus from the federal subsidy programs and because of the backlog of unsold new units. As for the outlook for savings banking, the NAMSB research staff said that when this year's books are closed, the figures will probably show an industrywide deposit growth of little more than $4.6 billion, reflecting some $5.1 billion of interest credited to depositors, accounts and net new money outflows of about $500 million. The figires will also show a massive shift in the composition of the industrys deposit structure, the forecast continued, resulting from a 5 per cent drop in ordinary passbook savings since the end of 1972, and a 30 per cent gain in the higher yielding time and other special deposit accounts, including the wild cards. On an industrywide basis, a $3 billion net new money inflow seems so-call- ed reasonably in the expected 1974 environment, the NAMSB forecast stated. Together with interest credited to depositors accounts, this would mean a total deposit gain of about $8.5 billion, or 8 to 9 per cent growth, compared with 12 to 14 per cent gains in 1971 and 1972. This forecast could be on the conservative side, the NAMSB staff added, if the fuel shortage causes a d deeper, drop in economic activity and wholesale on the part of than-expecte- belt-tighteni- with households consumers, shoring up their liquid savings in the face of rapidly rising unem- ployment. experienced three periods of severe disintermediation, the.NAMSB forecast commented, savings Having successive banks have proven their ability to operate effectively under seriously adverse conditions. completed. This is an industry that has The suit charged the merger proven its worth in good times and would violate Clayton Antitrust Act bad, the forecast concluded. It by eliminating competition between, will serve it better ihan when it is the banks. The proposed conarmed with the increased flexibility solidated bank would be the largest of powers and services currently in the Montpelier-Barr- e area, the being sought at the state and Department said. federal level. |