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Show ji y- Vt- SUN CHRONICLE, Dec. 9, 1 7" '''' 976, Page 0 1 continues studies BYU r S f 'r K rv Weather information gathered from around the world and being fed into a computer at Brigham Young University may provide the answer to a new theory and predict weather 11 months in advance with 70 to 80 per cent accuracy. Called Lag Effects Weather in Predictions (LEWP), the theory has already produced a projected weather map for the state of Utah for December and January under the direction R. Clayton Brough, a science teacher at Springville Junior High School and by Dr. Dale J. Stevens, associate professor of geography at of BYU As related by the pair, the new weather theory is as follows: normally when the temperature goes up during a given month one year, the rainfall can be expected to go up during the same month in the following year. If the theory proves correct, information about the weather will be published that will be instrumental to business concerns, farmers, andfamilies planning as vacations-- as well government officials around the world who are concerned with planning ahead for possible flood or drought conditions, Dr. Stevens said. When they first tested the theory by feeding the computer information from 22 world weather stations for the past 80 years, results pointed to a rejection of the Predictions varied, theory. and it appeared that the higher an areas latitude on the globe, the higher its prediction level, Dr. Stevens said. Discouraged, they decided that it would be useless to for the make forecasts equatorial or tropic regions. Stevens and Brough then decided to feed information from 27 additional weather stations into the computer and reduce the period from 80 years to 40 years. They found in that accuracy enlisted the help of Dr. Gill Hilton, professor of statistics, and Dr. G. Rex Bryce, associate professor of statistics. Ralph J. Snelson, a creased. ..and the test results partially confirmed the theory. Based on results of those and other tests, we now believe we can predict weather anywhere in the world 11 months in advance with 70 percent accuracy. We feel the time spent on the project is well worth it since the National Weather Service tells us that weather hazards in the United States alone cost an estimated 1,200 lives and nearly $11 billion in mathematics Springville teacher at Junior High School, also became involved in the theory and directed the mathematical preparation of data for the computer. Based on computations by and Stevens, Brough, Snelson, the following is the Utah forecast for December and January: DECEMBER: During the of the month, temperatures will probably be near normal. In addition, the first third of the month may be stormy, with rain or snow and occasional sleet occurring on a statewide basis. During the first week and it is likely that snowfall will be heavy in parts of the northern property damage each year, Dr. Stevens observed. Discovery of the theory came about by chance, the pair relate. They were trying to figure out a way to interest the junior high students in and metemeteorology orological statistics. Dr. Stevens suggested that the students go to the library and compile past weather data and examine the information for trends and cycles. The following weekend, Brough was examing the data at home, checking one sheet of paper that listed rainfall with another that showed temperature. I had the sheets lined up so the temperature data for a particular year matched the rainfall data for the same year, he explained Suddenly he was called away from his desk, accidentally bumping the papers and shuffling them. Results? The papers were aligned so that the temperature of one year were next to the rainfall of the following year. Brough later returned to his desk, unaware of the shuffling, and continued the studying papers. Although he wasnt sure what had happened, he did notice a relationship that when the temperature goes up during a given month of one year, the rainfall can be expected to go up during the same month the following year. Brough took his discovery back to Dr. Stevens and they first half one-hal- f, over the entire state of Utah. This period could be exceptionally favorable for all snow heavy covering over the northwestern and north central winter outdoor activities. portion of the state. The Precipitation will probably coldest weather of this winter be light during this period. should occur during the third Greatest deficiencies will week of January, with in the temperatures possibly dipoccur likely southeastern quarter of the ping quite frequently below state and in extreme south- zero during this one week western counties. Temperiod .throughout the norperatures will probably be thern region of Utah. In contrast, the eastern and above normal in the norsouthwestern thwestern, central and extreme southern parts of the state, counties of the state will and mostly below normal probably experience conelsewhere, although tinued dry weather during departures from normal will this period with the ground not be great as a rule. The remaining mostly bare. This first two weeks of the month lack of moisture could will possibly be the warmest, possible prevent full range although maximum tem- utilization during the first peratures might be recorded half of the month, and could at a few stations during the cause drought-typ- e weather over the eastern and southern last week of the month. Throughout the latter half portions of Utah by the end of of January, stormy days will the month. Total snowfall for be quite frequent over much the state will probably of northern Utah. During this average below normal for the later period, precipitation month. mountains, and at higher elevations there will probably be only one or two days will be mostly in the form of without some form of snow and will produce a precipitation. The southern fairly general and com- portion of the state will probably record deficient rainfall and snowfall for the first half of the month. During the latter half of the month, warmer than normal temperatures will probably A clinic instructor at the be recorded. These high University of Utah Medical temperatures may be accompanied with one or two Center doing research on warm storms occuring just drugs will the next at be the to and after speaker prior just Christmas. Runoff from these regular meeting of Arthritis storms, combined with the Action Group. He is Jack S. Johnson, M.D. temwarm relatively peratures, could result in the Tremonton, specialist in rise of some northern rivers. rheumatology and family With these storms could come practice, who is doing rewinds which might reach search under a government above 60 miles per hour, grant. The meeting will be held particularly in the Delta, Dec. 15 at 7 p m. at the Ogden, Salt Lake, and Utah Golden Hours Center, 65 0 25th County areas. These winds could cause considerable St. in Ogden. Attendance is open to damage. Total snowfall for December could exceed 20 anyone interested in learning inches at some ski rly about arthritis according to Alta. Jim Wordelman, president. JANUARY: During the For further information Mr. Wordlelman can be first half of the month, 1 or reached at unusually dry and mild weather will probably prevail year-by-ye- Arthritis group dates next meeting year-by-ye- resorts-particula- J paratively -- A "-A- S , rr . m W A f .if ' ! (Aft 1 V IferMtl! irtflni New theory DR. DALE J. STEVENS (right), BYU associate professor of geography, puts finishing touches on a December weather prediction map for the state of Utah based on a new theory being tested by computer at BYU. Assisting him are R. Clayton Brough (center), a science teacher at Springville Junior High School, and Joe Dunn, a graduate student in geography who is the computer programmer for the project. I 9 petLttm Beef Rib Bod Luncheon Meat Pork Sausage Regular or Beef Bologna or Salami, Pickle & Pimento, Olive or Spiced Luncheon Safeway Whole Hog USDA Choice-Standin- g Rife Si 8-o- b. roll z. Lb. pkg. Beef & Been BurritosLTib 79e Deep Fried Burritcs 711, 99' $135 Beef Tocos Com Dogs . Smoked Franks Corned Beef Hormel Brand Link pkg. QgC GO Link Sausage pkg. 95c Lean Ground Beef z Slzzler Hormel Brown 'n Serve $99 w usda a; Choice zz. 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